MLB Best Bets For Today, 5/14 - Expert Picks, Predictions, & Props
Looking for the top MLB Best Bets and Prop Bets for today? Fantasy Alarm has you covered! The Tuesday MLB slate is jam-packed with lots of exciting matchups and most of them are starting after 6:30pm ET so we have some time to dig through some of the betting lines and Vegas odds.
Shopping around for the best lines before making any MLB predictions is always important. Some, depending on your home state, may be limited with regard to where you can bet, but if you are free to bet on multiple sites, be sure to find the best lines you can. We do a lot of the heavy-lifting for you here, but it never hurts to give everywhere else a sneak-peek.
MLB Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets Today, 5/14
Monday’s MLB best bets were another night filled with close calls for our MLB bets, but the important thing is that we walked away with more profit. It wasn’t huge, but any way you walk away adding to your bankroll is a good day. We’ve had some great ones, for sure, and we’ll have more ahead, but we can be happy with a good day as well. So long as there’s profit.
This is why we’ve increased our volume this year. We know there are going to be highs and lows. But when you’re sitting there betting three picks a night because you think they’re locks, you’re less likely to have big days that push your bankroll up. You need more than just a few 3-0 days to make it happen. When you increase your volume, you are increasing your opportunities for bigger days.
And if the volume is too much for you, maybe just lower your stakes. If one unit per bet is too much, bet a half-unit. Bet a quarter-unit even. You have to bet where you are most comfortable and given the streakiness and degree of difficulty of MLB betting, there is nothing wrong with lowering your stakes. Remember, a 30-percent success rate in this game is considered Hall of Fame, so considering how you approach your betting, this should be factored in.
- Yesterday’s Record: 8-7
- Season Record: 125-102-3
- Bankroll: +12.14 units
*The betting odds will be provided alongside each of my MLB picks.
**Just a heads up as I’ve gone through the lines and odds – the lines are getting worse and worse as the day goes on and there’s a ton of juice on a lot of the plays I like. I am not going to bet this slate heavily at all.
Pirates vs. Brewers Prediction: Tuesday, May 14
After a 14-run explosion between these two teams yesterday, we’re going to go right back at it with our MLB predictions today and the pitching matchup of Quinn Priester and Joe Ross. Priester’s 6.85 FIP and 5.63 xERA indicate that more damage is likely on its way, and we know how much we love the Brewers’ lefty bats against him.
Ross is sporting a 1.46 WHIP and the Pirates bats have definitely been awake in recent games, so I see both offenses doing well. Based on how juiced some of the hitters’ props are, it would seem Vegas agrees.
- Expert Pirates vs. Brewers Picks:
- Pittsburgh vs. Milwaukee First 5 Innings Total Over 4.5 Runs (-120 on BetMGM)
- Brewers First 7 Innings Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-110 on DraftKings)
Guardians vs. Rangers Prediction: Tuesday, May 14
Two things are working in our favor here. The first is that Jack Leiter is still learning the ropes and has struggled mightily through his first couple of big-league appearances. The second is, while Ben Lively is sporting a 3.18 FIP which is really nice, I do expect us to see some regression for him.
He’s a fly-ball pitcher facing a very tough group of lefthanded hitters in guys like Corey Seager and Nathaniel Lowe and, let’s face facts, outside of escaping from a start against the Braves in which he went 4.1 innings, he hasn’t been incredibly dominant facing some mediocre lineups. Even the White Sox hung three runs on him in his last start. I’ll side with Lively early on because I’m worried about how many runs Leiter allows, but I’ll hump on that first five inning run total anticipating the Rangers bats do some work as well.
- Expert Guardians vs. Rangers Picks:
- Cleveland First 5 Innings Moneyline (+100 on BetMGM)
- Cleveland vs. Texas First 5 Innings Total Over 5 Runs (-115 on BetMGM)
Best MLB Props Today, 5/14: Strikeout Bets
- Ronel Blanco Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
We’re going to leave it at this for now and I will continue to look for more MLB picks throughout the day.
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.