MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for May 1
Welcome to the 2023 MLB season, amirite? Talk about your ups and downs. The MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks went into the weekend nice and hot and we came out lukewarm at best. Bullpens! What the heck is going on with the bullpens? I know in fantasy baseball everyone complains about closers, but this was flat-out ridiculous. We got abused at the start of the week thanks to the Texas Rangers, then we couldn’t steal an over because bullpens tightened up and then Sunday we got hosed because the Tampa Bay Rays left Jalen Beeks in to cough up five runs and give away the game to the hapless Chicago White Sox. Brutal. Just absolutely brutal. We’ll bounce back this week and I may even sneak in a little same game parlay as I eyeball the Chicago Cubs and their match-ups this week, but let’s get back on-track with the MLB best bets for today first.
- Yesterday’s Record: 0-3
- Season Record: 46-39-2
- Bankroll: +1.19 units
Amazing to think where our bankroll was two weeks into the season to where it is now. At least we’re still ahead of the game and can move on to a new month. Very short slate today, so we’re going to be very picky as to where we invest.
MLB Best Bets for May 1
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (Game 1)
The way the teams set up the pitching for today’s doubleheader doesn’t leave us with a whole lot of value as the Mets have decided to throw righthanded bullpen guy Denyi Reyes to open and then treat the first game as a bullpen game. Are they conceding Game 1 to Spencer Strider? It sure looks like that. It doesn’t even matter that the Mets have hit righties fairly well this year as Strider has been ridiculously dominant, allowing no more than four hits in any appearance and he hasn’t struck out fewer than nine batters in any outing. This one doesn’t seem like it will be any different, especially with the early start. As for the Mets bullpen, it’s been solid overall, posting a 10th-best 3.55 ERA, however, over the past seven days, they’ve posted a 6.75 EAR which is the sixth-highest in that span. We’ll back Strider here and find as much value as we can betting this game.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Run Line (-130 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees
This was an embarrassing road trip for the Yankees, losing five of seven to the Twins and Rangers, but they come back home today to take on a Guardians team that finds themselves in a similar spot to where the Yanks were last week. Cleveland dropped two of three to the Red Sox at Fenway and now carry a .283 wOBA over the past week into the Bronx. Yankees righthander Domingo German is looking to bounce back after allowing 10 runs over his last two starts (12 innings) and should find success against this Guardians lineup. Cal Quantrill, starting for Cleveland, has also had some struggles recently, getting waxed by the Rockies and it wasn’t even in Colorado. We’re going to back the trends today, as the Yankees are 9-0 in their last nine home games against the AL Central following a road loss. Not to mention the Yankees are 51-24 against the Guardians over their last 75 games played in Yankee Stadium.
Pick: New York Yankees Money Line (-130 on DK Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
Slowly but surely, the Padres bats have started to wake up. They are 7-3 over their last 10 games and have averaged almost five runs per game, even with getting shut out in two of those games. They’ve posted a .276/.367/.494 slash line over the past week and have the third-highest wOBA (.372) in that span. Oh yeah, and they’re doing it with power, as evidenced by the .218 ISO mark. So when I see Luke Weaver on the bump for the Reds, I am investing in the bats facing him. Blake Snell should be able to handle the Reds bats as he’s settled into a decent pocket over his last two starts which came against the Cubs and Braves, two teams that hit lefties significantly better than the Reds do. I don’t really love taking the home team on the run line but that’s where the value is for this game and the Padres bullpen has been decent. Not great, but decent enough for me to invest here.
Pick: San Diego Padres -1.5 Run Line (-110 on Caesars Sportsbook)
*all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.