MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for July 6
Who’s ready for some MLB bets today? We may have whiffed on Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez and his amazing home-field performance against the Kansas City Royals last night, the Los Angeles Dodgers, specifically J.D. Martinez, came through with a clutch performance last night. We hit the Dodgers’ team total and the Martinez prop (made for a sweet same game parlay too!), but even better was that we also nailed the Martinez home run. If you missed that call, give a follow to James Grande who posts the Home Run Call tweet every morning. That is, of course, if Instagram Threads doesn’t wipe out all of Twitter in one fell swoop. But I digress. Let’s get back to the MLB action today. The 2023 MLB season rolls on with a 13-game slate tonight, split between day and night games, so let’s get to it.
- Yesterday’s Record: 3-2
- Season Record: 111-104-4
- Bankroll: -5.78 units
MLB Best Bets for July 6
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
After a pair of less-than-stellar outings, it looks like Vegas has lost faith in Marcus Stroman and that’s just fine by me as it lands us some more favorable betting odds. Stroman hasn’t seen the Brewers since he blanked them for six innings on Opening Day and as this series continues, the Cubs are going to need him to dominate if they want to win their third in a row and take down the series. The Brewers hit righties better than lefties which doesn’t say much, but they still have the seventh-lowest wOBA against them (.303), they don’t create much in runs against them and their .145 ISO against them is below-average. We don’t even want to look at the game as a whole. We just need Stroman to hold the Milwaukee bats in check for the first five innings. On the other side, the Brewers are throwing Freddy Peralta who has pieced together a few decent outings, but has allowed eight earned runs over his last 16.1 innings (4.41 ERA) and has issued eight walks in that span. The Cubs bats haven’t been dominant, but between Stroman on the mound and Peralta’s inconsistencies, we’ll bank on Chicago having a lead through the first half of the game.
Pick: Chicago Cubs 1st 5 Innings Money Line (-110 on BetMGM)
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
Big deal – Jordan Lyles got his first win last week. Let’s map out that parade route in downtown Kansas City. While you’re trying to find the best place to stand, we’ll start making some extra cash by betting against him today. Cleveland righty Tanner Bibee has looked great in his last few outings, allowing just four earned runs over 16.2 innings, and based on what we’ve seen from the Royals recently -- .277 wOBA with a 27.5-percent strikeout rate – he shouldn’t have much trouble with them. As for Lyles, after just barely securing that win, he came down with an illness and had his start skipped. Now he takes the mound against the Guardians who may not have the offensive prowess you can trust, but they can do enough damage to push past Lyles and the Royals in this one. The books are squeezing us on the first five innings bets, but considering the Royals bullpen has a 5.25 ERA over the past week, we feel god about investing in Cleveland for the whole game.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Run Line (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
It’s been a rough year for the Cardinals and a wildly inconsistent one for starter Jack Flaherty. He’s coming off six scoreless frames against the Yankees, but he gave up 12 earned runs in the two starts prior. The Marlins have been solid lately, posting a .328 wOBA with a sub-20-percent strikeout rate – and they should be able to get the better of Flaherty, at least early on in this contest. On the other side, the Fish are throwing rookie Eury Perez who has been absolutely dominant at home with a 1.01 ERA and 35.3-percent strikeout rate. The Cardinals bats have been good as of late, but they’re likely to struggle against the righty and could be in danger of getting swept. We’re not going to eyeball the full game, though, so we’ll just check in on the first half.
Pick: Miami Marlins 1st Five Innings Money Line (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Player News
Dillon Dingler went 3-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI on Friday night, helping to lead the Tigers to a come-from-behind 7-6 victory over the Twins in Minneapolis.
The Tigers were staring at a 4-1 deficit heading into the sixth inning but they made quick work of that with a pair of walks and three consecutive singles to start the frame, with Dingler’s RBI single tying the game at 4-4. He also led off the fifth inning with a single and scored his club’s first run on a throwing error by Matt Wallner. Dingler has been absolutely sizzling at the plate to open the season, slashing .387/.406/.677 with a pair of homers and eight RBI.
Colt Keith went 2-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI on Friday night as the Tigers triumphed over the Twins.
Keith played a role in the Tigers’ four-run rally in the sixth inning, reaching on an infield single to load the bases with nobody out. He then scored the tying run on Dillon Dingler’s RBI single. The 23-year-old infielder also drove in a valuable insurance run with a two-out RBI single off of Justin Topa in the seventh inning. With the two-hit attack, he’s now hitting .200/.385/.250 with zero home runs, two RBI and no stolen bases.
Tommy Kahnle snagged his second save of the season on Friday night, escaping the ninth inning with a one-run lead intact against the Twins.
Kahnle made things interesting by allowing a one-out single to Trevor Larnach and a two-out infield single to Edouard Julien. He then surrendered an RBI ground ball single to Ty France that trimmed the lead to one run before ralling to get Mickey Gasper on a ground ball to first to end it. Kahnle has allowed just one run through his first five innings on the season while registering a 5/0 K/BB ratio. While many have speculated that the Tigers’ bullpen will be full of chaos in 2025, it has been Kahnle that has emerged in a traditional closer’s role to open the season. He’s worth a look in any fantasy leagues where he may still be hanging around on the waiver wire.
Reese Olson struggled with his command in a no-decision against the Twins on Friday evening, allowing four runs on six hits over 4 1/3 innings.
Olson also issued three walks on the night while striking out three. He threw just 48 of his 90 pitches for strikes in the ballgame, which contributed to his early exit. The Twins scratched out a run against him in the second inning on an RBI single off the bat of Ty France, then broke the game open with three more in the fifth while chasing him. Olson got 10 swings and misses on 90 pitches on the night, posting a CSW of 23 percent. He’ll look to bounce back as he brings a 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and a 13/8 K/BB ratio (15 innings) into Wednesday’s battle against the Brewers in Milwaukee.
Byron Buxton had a terrific night at the plate in Friday’s loss to the Tigers, going 1-for-4 with a solo homer, walk, three runs scored, two RBI and a stolen base.
Buxton worked Reese Olson for a leadoff walk to start the second inning then stole second base and raced around to score the game’s first run on an RBI single by Ty France. He then plated a run with a fielder’s choice in the fifth inning and scored on Edouard Julien’s RBI double. Buxton also clobbered a 394-foot (108.1 mph EV) solo shot off of Beau Brieske in the seventh that pulled the Twins to within a run at 6-5. Even with the strong night though, he’s hitting just .178/.229/.356 with two homers, six RBI and three stolen bases on the season.
David Festa pitched well in a no-decision against the Tigers in his season debut on Friday night, allowing just one unearned run on three hits over 4 2/3 innings.
Festa struck out four batters on the evening while allowing only one free pass. The only run that the Tigers scratched out against him came on a two-out single by Gleyber Torres on which Matt Wallner overthrew the third baseman allowing Dillon Dingler to score. The 25-year-old right-hander got nine whiffs on 64 pitches in the ballgame, registering a CSW of 28 percent. He’ll look to build off of this strong first start when he takes on the Braves in Atlanta on Friday.