Who’s ready for some MLB bets today? We may have whiffed on Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez and his amazing home-field performance against the Kansas City Royals last night, the Los Angeles Dodgers, specifically J.D. Martinez, came through with a clutch performance last night. We hit the Dodgers’ team total and the Martinez prop (made for a sweet same game parlay too!), but even better was that we also nailed the Martinez home run. If you missed that call, give a follow to James Grande who posts the Home Run Call tweet every morning. That is, of course, if Instagram Threads doesn’t wipe out all of Twitter in one fell swoop. But I digress. Let’s get back to the MLB action today. The 2023 MLB season rolls on with a 13-game slate tonight, split between day and night games, so let’s get to it.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 3-2
  • Season Record: 111-104-4
  • Bankroll: -5.78 units
 

 

MLB Best Bets for July 6 

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

After a pair of less-than-stellar outings, it looks like Vegas has lost faith in Marcus Stroman and that’s just fine by me as it lands us some more favorable betting odds. Stroman hasn’t seen the Brewers since he blanked them for six innings on Opening Day and as this series continues, the Cubs are going to need him to dominate if they want to win their third in a row and take down the series. The Brewers hit righties better than lefties which doesn’t say much, but they still have the seventh-lowest wOBA against them (.303), they don’t create much in runs against them and their .145 ISO against them is below-average. We don’t even want to look at the game as a whole. We just need Stroman to hold the Milwaukee bats in check for the first five innings. On the other side, the Brewers are throwing Freddy Peralta who has pieced together a few decent outings, but has allowed eight earned runs over his last 16.1 innings (4.41 ERA) and has issued eight walks in that span. The Cubs bats haven’t been dominant, but between Stroman on the mound and Peralta’s inconsistencies, we’ll bank on Chicago having a lead through the first half of the game.

Pick: Chicago Cubs 1st 5 Innings Money Line (-110 on BetMGM)

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians

Big deal – Jordan Lyles got his first win last week. Let’s map out that parade route in downtown Kansas City. While you’re trying to find the best place to stand, we’ll start making some extra cash by betting against him today. Cleveland righty Tanner Bibee has looked great in his last few outings, allowing just four earned runs over 16.2 innings, and based on what we’ve seen from the Royals recently -- .277 wOBA with a 27.5-percent strikeout rate – he shouldn’t have much trouble with them. As for Lyles, after just barely securing that win, he came down with an illness and had his start skipped. Now he takes the mound against the Guardians who may not have the offensive prowess you can trust, but they can do enough damage to push past Lyles and the Royals in this one. The books are squeezing us on the first five innings bets, but considering the Royals bullpen has a 5.25 ERA over the past week, we feel god about investing in Cleveland for the whole game.

Pick: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Run Line (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins

It’s been a rough year for the Cardinals and a wildly inconsistent one for starter Jack Flaherty. He’s coming off six scoreless frames against the Yankees, but he gave up 12 earned runs in the two starts prior. The Marlins have been solid lately, posting a .328 wOBA with a sub-20-percent strikeout rate – and they should be able to get the better of Flaherty, at least early on in this contest. On the other side, the Fish are throwing rookie Eury Perez who has been absolutely dominant at home with a 1.01 ERA and 35.3-percent strikeout rate. The Cardinals bats have been good as of late, but they’re likely to struggle against the righty and could be in danger of getting swept. We’re not going to eyeball the full game, though, so we’ll just check in on the first half.

Pick: Miami Marlins 1st Five Innings Money Line (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)