MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for July 5
We are in the final week of the first half of the 2023 MLB season and we are looking to close it out on a high note for the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks. We enjoyed a rock-solid day on Monday thanks to the Los Angeles Angels pushing up Jaime Barria on short rest and, of course, the Atlanta Braves continued to roll on. The starting pitching looks a little gruesome today and you can see that in most of the betting odds, both money line and game totals. Pitchers tend to get a little worn down at the mid-point of the season, but that doesn’t mean we’re solely taking the over in our daily betting picks today. Or does it? It’s a nice, full slate of games but there is one early start, so let’s get to the action.
- Monday’s Record: 3-1
- Season Record: 108-102-4
- Bankroll: -6.52
MLB Best Bets for July 5
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
The “or does it” from above is ringing in my ears, so let’s start in Minnesota where righty Pablo Lopez is sporting a dismal 5.94 ERA at home. Granted, the Royals are not an intimidating lineup and their overall performance against righties, along with recent offensive production, has been less than stellar, but we’ve got some familiarity here as this will be the third time Lopez has met the Royals this season. His first outing was on the road and he was dominant, but the Royals saw him in Minnesota a month later and beat him up for six runs in six innings. Lopez is coming off back-to-back quality starts, but his walk rate is up and we’ve watched his WHIP steadily climb in that span. Can the Royals get to him again? It looks like they can do some damage here. On the other side, rookie righthander Alec Marsh takes the mound against a Twins team that has won four of its last five games and has averaged more than five runs per game in that span. They may be striking out a little too much, but they are still producing at the plate.
Pick: Royals/Twins over 8.5 runs (-105 on BetMGM)
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
We’ve seen 27 runs scored through the first two games of this series and, based off the Vegas odds, the majority of the world thinks we’re in for another barnburner. However, the difference between this game and the first two is the starting pitching. Neither team put it’s best foot forward in the first two games, but now we get Justin Steele taking on Adrians Houser. The clear advantage goes to the Cubs as Steele is not only looking to finish off the first half on a high note, but he’s also hoping to notch his 10th win and receive the start for the All-Star game, with Clayton Kershaw landing on the IL. Zac Gallen might get the nod, but Steele’s current 2.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP definitely put him in the conversation. He shut down the Brewers for six innings back on Opening Day and their season has continued to decline as they’ve lost their hold on the division lead and own the seventh-worst wOBA against righties (.304) with a 24.3-percent strikeout rate. Houser has had his ups and downs this season but he’s allowed just three runs over his last 11 innings and none of the Cubs have the familiarity with him that would make you worry about another big explosion of runs. With Steele at the top of his game, even if the Cubs put up some runs, I’m just not buying this run total.
Pick: Cubs/Brewers under 8.5 runs (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pick: Justin Steele over 5.5 strikeouts (-134 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
While the Dodgers have lost three of their last four games, I simply don’t have any faith in Pirates starter Osvaldo Bido keeping the totals down early in this game. He had some success through his first three big-league starts, but the Brewers manhandled him during his last outing and rang up four runs over 3.1 innings. Bido doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff, as evidenced by his 6.3-percent swinging-strike rate, and the Dodgers are putting everything successfully in-play right now, posting a .366 BABIP with a .360 wOBA over the past week. This offense has too much firepower for them to be held down and we’ll bank on some strong run production against Bido and an overworked bullpen.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers team total over 5.5 runs (+100 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Pick: J.D. Martinez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120 on BetMGM)
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.