MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for July 15
Welcome to the weekend and the 2nd half of the MLB season! Towards the end of June and early July I was just pushing money back and forth with the Sportsbooks and while not losing money and treading water is a moral victory I would like to start winning money again so I dove deep into today's matchups. I really love the board today too so its a perfect time to strike big! In the article today we have a game total, Money Line, pitching prop and a hitters prop so something for everyone today and I very much like all of them and can't wait to watch this massive slate on an MLB Saturday. Let's dive into the action for today's games shall we?
- Sunday's Record: 2-2
- Season Record: 41-33-1
- Bankroll: +1.25 units
MLB Best Bets for July 15
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (Game 1)
We're in for a double header today between the the Padres and Phillies and while it should be an awesome couple of matchup today between these two talented teams I am looking at the game total and seeing a potential under. Blake Snell will get the nod for the Padres and its been a tale of two parts of the season for him as he start April & May getting rocked with a 5.30 ERA in April specifically. Since June though he has been light out pitching 42.0 total innings and allowing just 3 runs over that span! That's flat out ridiculous and something to take note of no doubt. On the Phillies side it'll be Taijuan Walker pitching and his June was almost as good allowing just 6 earned runs over 36 total innings. He got blown up in his most recent start against the Tampa Bay Rays but that seems to happen to every pitcher this season. Given those numbers and the fact that the Padres go under in 57.7% of their games and the Phillies go under in 56.8% of their games, which are both top 4 hit rates for the under in the MLB I am going to make a wager in that direction tonight.
Pick: San Diego Padres & Philadelphia Phillies Under 9 Runs (+100 on DraftKings)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
After last night's win for the Brewers the NL Central division is now tied as both teams sit at 50-42 heading into tonight's game. That raises the stakes big time in this series and luckily for the Reds they have their surging ace Andrew Abbott on the hill tonight. Since entering the big leagues in early June, the Reds pitcher has done more than his part holding down an ERA of 2.38 and 1.03 WHIP while going 4-1 with a few no decisions in which the Reds ended up winning anyways. The only bad start Abbott has had out of the 7 he has made so far did come against the Brewers before the All-Star break but it was on the road and overall this Brewers offense isn't scary as they score just 3.98 runs per game on the road this season. I am leaning towards the Reds Money Line tonight if you can't already tell but I like some Abbott revenge tonight too as the Brewers strikeout 9.30 times per game this season which is the 4th highest rate in the MLB. His K prop sits at 6.5 tonight and that's a big number for him given most of his starts but I think he gets it done today given the matchup so I will wager that and the Reds to win tonight!
Pick: Andrew Abbott Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-105 on DraftKings)
Pick: Cincinnati Reds Money Line (-115 on Bet365)
Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics
Going to keep it pretty simple here for this bet, the Oakland A's are garbage and betting props against them this season has been very fruitful to this point so not going to stop now. Carlos Correa is in a great spot today because of the matchup and he is coming off a 2 hit game yesterday and also leads the Twins in total bases and most offensive categories. Not going to the total bases prop though as his average worries me some instead I am going back to the well on the hits, runs and RBIs prop as Correa is going to bat lead off today so if he can get on base he should get hit around. His line is 1.5 on this prop and juiced a bit to -150 but I will take it seeing how some players have been pushed to 2.5 on the prop line in recent weeks. Give me Correa to go about his business today and be involved for the Twins in a great matchup.
Pick: Carlos Correa Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-150 on DraftKings)
**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.