MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for August 22

Happy Tuesday everyone! I am back from my wedding week and I will tell you it was truly the perfect few days with family, friends and nothing but a good time. I don't know if I get wagering superpowers on the heels of being a newly wed but I can think of no better time to go on a run and string together some winning bets. On top of that we're going to need some winning tickets to pay for the honeymoon so check out what I am betting on today as it includes a Run Line, game total and some 1st 5 innings action! Good luck to all as always and I will see you all again on Thursday!
- Last Wednesday's Record: 2-1
- Season Record: 81-71-3
- Bankroll: +1.30 units
MLB Best Bets for August 22
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians
I spent most of the early part of this season betting on Cleveland and it worked out well more times than not but as we head into late August the winds have changed and now I am betting against them! It's partially because they are hosting the Dodgers tonight who are on an absolute tear right now winning 13 of their last 14 games and covering the spread in 11 of those game. That's dominance right there and as they start this series against the Guardians who are now 7 games under .500 I really like their chances tonight. Cleveland will send out Noah Syndergaard as the starting pitcher too which makes this bet even better as he has an ERA of 6.57 and WHIP of 1.45! He has also allowed 11 earned runs over his last 3 starts over just 16 innings pitched. The Dodgers should have no problem running it up on them and should keep it low on their end with Bobby Miller starting on the mound for them. He has an ERA of 3.7 but has been even better in the month of August allowing just 2 earned runs over 15.2 innings pitched. Vegas agrees with the wager too as the Dodgers have an implied total 4.99 runs with Cleveland having 3.51 runs so should be a convincing win for the Dodgers.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-120 on DraftKings)
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
Its a matchup between two offenses tonight that really know how to score runs as the Red Sox and Astros begin their series! This game has the largest difference in total runs projection compared to the sportsbooks total on the model today and that caught my attention. The model has this game projected at 9.33 total runs tonight as Tanner Houck with his 5.05 ERA takes on Justin Verlander who has allowed 9 earned run over his last 3 starts since reuniting with the Houston Astros. That makes the line of 8.5 runs on the books look a little too low to me considering the Red Sox bullpen is also pretty bad and Houston has gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 home games. Don't overthink it just hammer the over in this matchup and collect your winning bet slip!
Pick: Red Sox & Astros Over 8.5 Runs (-125 on Bet365)
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
The Padres are slipping further and further from their postseason dreams but this series coming up against the Miami Marlins could help them pull back into the race as they are a team they are chasing right now! The Padres have been a good home team this season and have scored 7.33 runs per game over the last 3 games. They will also get the benefit of Blake Snell starting for them and if you've been under a rock since July, Snell has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the MLB. He's come back to earth a bit alloiwng 7 earned runs over the last 3 starts but they came against the Dodgers, Orioles and Diamondbacks so I will cut him some slack. I say this especially because the Marlins offense is dragging big time as they've scored just 4.04 runs per game on the road this season, the 5th lowest average in the MLB. More recently they've only managed to score 4 total runs in the last 3 games so I expect that trend to continue tonight. Give me the Padres Money Line while Snell is pitching and the total runs for the Marlins to be under their team total in that time frame.
Pick: San Diego Padres 1st 5 Innings Money Line (-160 on PointsBet)
Pick: Miami Marlins Team Total 1st 5 Innings Under 2 Runs (-135 on DraftKings)
**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.