Happy Tuesday everyone! I am back from my wedding week and I will tell you it was truly the perfect few days with family, friends and nothing but a good time. I don't know if I get wagering superpowers on the heels of being a newly wed but I can think of no better time to go on a run and string together some winning bets. On top of that we're going to need some winning tickets to pay for the honeymoon so check out what I am betting on today as it includes a Run Line, game total and some 1st 5 innings action! Good luck to all as always and I will see you all again on Thursday!

  • Last Wednesday's Record: 2-1
  • Season Record: 81-71-3
  • Bankroll: +1.30 units
 

MLB Best Bets for August 22

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians

I spent most of the early part of this season betting on Cleveland and it worked out well more times than not but as we head into late August the winds have changed and now I am betting against them! It's partially because they are hosting the Dodgers tonight who are on an absolute tear right now winning 13 of their last 14 games and covering the spread in 11 of those game. That's dominance right there and as they start this series against the Guardians who are now 7 games under .500 I really like their chances tonight. Cleveland will send out Noah Syndergaard as the starting pitcher too which makes this bet even better as he has an ERA of 6.57 and WHIP of 1.45! He has also allowed 11 earned runs over his last 3 starts over just 16 innings pitched. The Dodgers should have no problem running it up on them and should keep it low on their end with Bobby Miller starting on the mound for them. He has an ERA of 3.7 but has been even better in the month of August allowing just 2 earned runs over 15.2 innings pitched. Vegas agrees with the wager too as the Dodgers have an implied total 4.99 runs with Cleveland having 3.51 runs so should be a convincing win for the Dodgers.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-120 on DraftKings)

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros 

Its a matchup between two offenses tonight that really know how to score runs as the Red Sox and Astros begin their series! This game has the largest difference in total runs projection compared to the sportsbooks total on the model today and that caught my attention. The model has this game projected at 9.33 total runs tonight as Tanner Houck with his 5.05 ERA takes on Justin Verlander who has allowed 9 earned run over his last 3 starts since reuniting with the Houston Astros. That makes the line of 8.5 runs on the books look a little too low to me considering the Red Sox bullpen is also pretty bad and Houston has gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 home games. Don't overthink it just hammer the over in this matchup and collect your winning bet slip!

Pick: Red Sox & Astros Over 8.5 Runs (-125 on Bet365)

Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres

The Padres are slipping further and further from their postseason dreams but this series coming up against the Miami Marlins could help them pull back into the race as they are a team they are chasing right now! The Padres have been a good home team this season and have scored 7.33 runs per game over the last 3 games. They will also get the benefit of Blake Snell starting for them and if you've been under a rock since July, Snell has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the MLB. He's come back to earth a bit alloiwng 7 earned runs over the last 3 starts but they came against the Dodgers, Orioles and Diamondbacks so I will cut him some slack. I say this especially because the Marlins offense is dragging big time as they've scored just 4.04 runs per game on the road this season, the 5th lowest average in the MLB. More recently they've only managed to score 4 total runs in the last 3 games so I expect that trend to continue tonight. Give me the Padres Money Line while Snell is pitching and the total runs for the Marlins to be under their team total in that time frame. 

Pick: San Diego Padres 1st 5 Innings Money Line (-160 on PointsBet)

Pick: Miami Marlins Team Total 1st 5 Innings Under 2 Runs (-135 on DraftKings)

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned.