Tigers vs. Astros Predictions, Picks & Odds: AL Wild Card Game 2, 10/2
Game 2 of the American League Wild Card series between the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros kicks off on Wednesday afternoon with the visiting Tigers holding a 1-0 series lead following their 3-1 win over the Astros in Game 1.
Game 1 saw Tarik Skubal, the American League Cy Young favorite, shut down this Houston offense, throwing six shutout innings with six strikeouts. The Tigers only runs of the game came during the second inning when they tagged Framber Valdez for three runs.
Can upstart Tigers pull off the sweep? Our Tigers vs. Astros predictions will take a look at the Game 2 matchup.
Tigers vs. Astros Predictions For AL Wild Card Game 2
The Wild Card round is a three-game series which means the Tigers are in a spot to sweep if they can pull off the victory, in Houston, for the second straight day.
Unlike Game 1 however, the odds are much more in the favor of the Astros with the Tigers lack of starting pitching depth immediately on display with their decision to go with an “opener” in Tyler Holton to start things off.
Tigers manager A.J. Hinch did warn the media ahead of this series with his now infamous “pitching chaos” quote when he was asked about how he would go about using his rotation and bullpen arms. Hinch said that he could use any pitcher on the roster at any time so that they could set up the ideal matchups.
So, who follows Tyler Holton after his 1-to-2 innings of work is anyone's guess.
Offensively the Tigers did put 10 hits on the board against the Astros in Game 1 with seven of those coming off of Framber Valdez which is fairly impressive given the team’s struggles against left-handed pitching this season.
The matchup for Detroit in Game 2 doesn’t necessarily get any easier as the Astros send righty Hunter Brown to the mound.
Brown had a very strong second half of the season, posting a 2.26 ERA over his final 12 starts while striking out 74 over 71.2 innings.
The Tigers lineup is likely going to have quite a few left-handed hitters but that may not be the right approach as Brown is a reverse splits pitcher, holding left-handed hitters to a .209 batting average this season with just a .277 wOBA while righties hit .279 off of him.
For our Tigers vs. Astros predictions, it will be interesting to see if A.J. Hinch pays attention to the splits or if he throws out his lefty heavy lineup which has featured five lefties among the first six hitters this season against right-handed pitching.
Houston Astros: Can The Astros Avoid The Sweep?
Top to bottom the Astros have a better lineup. We saw Yordan Alvarez return from his injury and be in the lineup for Game 1. The team has a healthy Kyle Tucker after he missed most of the season with his leg injury and the pitching matchup today is very much on their side.
But, a moment sometimes is a real thing. We saw the Arizona Diamondbacks come out of nowhere last year as a Wild Card team to make the world series when they were constantly considered to be the underdog.
All of the pressure is on Houston here today knowing that they now have to win two straight games, which would include a Game 3 winner-take-all matchup in order to advance to the divisional series round.
Detroit Tigers: Are The Tigers This Year’s “Cinderella Team”?
Every season there is a team that comes out of relative obscurity to make the playoffs and go on a bit of a run. Last year we saw the Arizona Diamondbacks ride that momentum as a Wild Card team and go all the way to the World Series.
The difference between that Diamondbacks team and this Tigers team is definitely the overall talent level. It’s not that the Tigers don’t have good players. Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter Spencer Torkleson, Colt Keith and Parker Meadows have all had moments this year but they aren’t yet at the levels of a Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte or Christian Walker.
Yes, the Tigers have Tarik Skubal but the rest of their rotation is unsettled and if they are going to make any sort of deep run into the playoffs, especially once we get into the five and seven game series in the later rounds, they are going to need someone like a Reese Olson or Casey Mize to take the ball and given them quality innings and I’m not sure they are ready to do that.
Tigers vs. Astros Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
We’re about to break down our Tigers vs. Astros predictions, but first, here are the current Tigers vs. Astros odds, spreads, totals and betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook:
Run Line
- Tigers +1.5 (-148)
- Astros -1.5 (+124)
Money Line
- Tigers: +150
- Astros: -180
Total
- 7.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
Tigers vs. Astros Starting Pitcher & Lineup
Holton is a left-handed reliever that the Tigers have used as an “opener this season”. He has thrown three innings twice this season so there is some ability for him to go deeper than most in games. He also pitched in Game 1, getting an out in his lone matchup.
Holton was really good out of the bullpen this year for the Tigers as a bulk inning reliever, going 7-2 with a 2.19 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP.
The Astros are a good team against left-handed pitching in general, but we did see Skubal shut them down yesterday and with Holton knowing he has a maximum number of pitches, we likely see him give us some max effort innings here today.
Brown had a really shaking first half for the Astros which surprised many as there were high expectations following his strong rookie season.
Brown did right the ship however in the second half, pitching to a 2.26 ERA over his final 12 starts while striking out 74 over 71.2 innings.
As I mentioned above, Brown is a reverse splits pitcher, holding left-handed hitters to a very low batting average and the Tigers are expected to roll out a lefty-heavy lineup which may only play into the Astros favor here today.
Tigers vs. Astros Game Total: Under 7.5 Runs (-115 on DraftKings)
For my Tigers vs. Astros picks today we are going right back to the under on the game total. We hit the under on yesterday’s game with a total of 6.5 runs and today the line is a full run higher.
Understanding that the change in starting pitcher is likely the reason for the increased run total but I think the Tigers ability to just roll out relievers with fresh arms inning after inning all with different looks for the Astros to adjust to along with my expectation that Hunter Brown really shuts down this Tigers lineup today as me going right back to the well.
So, for my Tigers vs. Astros predictions, we are going with under 7.5 runs over on DraftKings Sportsbook set at -115 odds.
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