Mets vs. Brewers Predictions, Picks & Odds: NL Wild Card Game 1, 10/1
Game 1 of the National League Wild Card series between the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers kicks off Tuesday following the Mets epic comeback win in game one of their double-header matchup against the Braves on Monday afternoon.
Francisco Lindor’s go-ahead homer in the top of the ninth inning secured the Mets playoff spot but they now have a quick turnaround to go face the NL central winning Milwaukee Brewers.
Can the Mets ride the momentum or will the Milwaukee Brewers hold serve on their home field in Game 1?
Before we make our Mets vs. Brewers predictions, let us take a deeper look at today’s matchup.
Mets vs. Brewers Predictions For NL Wild Card Game 1
Before settling in on our Mets vs. Brewers predictions let us take a second and look at the matchup between these two teams.
The Mets needed to win one of the two games yesterday against the Braves to lock in their playoff spot and they did it in dramatic fashion with a comeback win thanks to a late inning home run from MVP candidate Francisco Lindor.
No, Lindor won’t win the MVP this season due to the year that Shohei Ohtani had but most seasons he would have had a real shot at the award.
The Mets offense was pretty good this season as not only did Lindor have a huge year but the team also got strong offensive production from Pete Alonso who had 34 home runs, Brandon Nimmo who hit 23 home runs and Mark Vientos who went and hit 27 homers.
On the mound today will be Luis Severino who was slated to start Game 2 if necessary but his start was scratched once the Mets took down Game 1.
Severino had a nice bounceback season in 2024, going 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA over 31 starts after posting a 6.65 ERA over 19 appearances for the Yankees last season.
On the Brewers side we have to talk about Willy Adames. The Brewers shortstop hit a career high 32 homers with 112 RBI and 93 runs scored.
Adames was unstoppable during the month of August as he hit 10 of his 32 homers during the month which included a stretch between August 25th and September 2nd where he hit seven homers over nine games.
Other than Adames, the story of the season was rookie Jackson Chourio. The youngest player in the MLB this season, Chourio hit .275 with 80 runs, 21 home runs, 79 RBI and 22 stolen bases. Most other seasons this would have likely put him as a lock for NL Rookie of the Year but he is behind both Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill in the betting odds.
Pitching for the Brewers today is top starter Freddy Peralta. Peralta was just 11-9 on the season but led the team with a 3.68 ERA and 200 strikeouts while throwing 173.2 innings. Peralta’s 10.4 K/9 was good for ninth in the majors this season.
Milwaukee Brewers: Can Willy Adames Carry The Offense?
Adames is a free agent this offseason and he is set to earn a nice paycheck after setting new career highs in home runs and RBI.
Hitting in the middle of the Brewers lineup, Adames has some pretty extreme splits as he dominates right-handed pitching at home. Adames has been pretty open about how well he can see the ball thanks to the batter's-eye in his home ballpark and this season he is hitting .276 with a .379 wOBA and a .266 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Adames has also had success against Mets starter Luis Severino, though over only 11 at bats, Adames is 4-for-11 with a double, homer and three RBI.
New York Mets: Will The Mets Have The Momentum?
We talk often about momentum and while it certainly looked like the Mets took the second game off of their double-header yesterday, we can’t overlook their comeback win over the Braves in Game 1.
Can they ride that momentum to a Game 1 road victory?
Or, will they be a bit gassed having to play the double-header yesterday and then travel to Milwaukee to play Game 1 here tonight?
Mets vs. Brewers Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
For our Mets vs. Brewers predictions, here are the current odds, spreads, totals and betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook:
Run Line
- Mets +1.5 (-185)
- Brewers -1.5 (+154)
Moneyline
- Mets: +120
- Brewers: -142
Total
- 7.5 (Over -102/Under -118)
Mets vs. Brewers Starting Pitcher & Lineup
Severino gets the nod here in Game 1. After a miserable 2023, Serverino had a nice bounce back campaign going 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA over 31 starts while striking out 161 over 182 innings.
Sevrino had one start against the Brewers this season and it did not go well as he allowed six runs (three earned) on 11 hits over five innings of work.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
Wins and losses aside, as Peralta was just 11-9 this season, the Brewers top starter had another strong year, posting a 3.68 ERA with 200 strikeouts over a career high 173.2 innings.
Peralta’s 10.4 K/9 and 27.6% strikeout rate allow him to get out of trouble when he puts men on base.
Peralta faced the Mets in his first start of the season and shut them down, tossing six innings of one-hit baseball while striking out eight.
Mets vs. Brewers Willy Adames Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI on DraftKings Sportsbook
For our Mets vs. Brewers prediction we are rolling with Willy Adames over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI over on DraftKings Sportsbook.
As I’ve discussed, Adames has dominated right-handed pitching when at home this season and with Luis Severino being far from a shutdown righty, I can envision Adames getting it done for us this afternoon and possibly getting it done with just one swing of the bat this afternoon.
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