2017 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Aaron Nola

In 2014 I predicted that Corey Kluber would break out. He did.

In 2015 I predicted that Shane Greene would break out. He didn’t, though he allowed just one earned run in 23 innings over his first three starts before arm woes set in.

In 2016 I predicted that Kyle Hendricks would break out. He did.

These guys were costing you late round picks on draft day, and twice in three years I predicted not just a breakout arm, but the breakout arm in baseball.

Who is it gonna be in 2017?

I will say from the start... I’m really unsure of my final answer. How is that for confidence?

I considered going with Robbie Ray but I felt that was too chalk. I mean, the guy had the 21^st best K/9 in league history last season and everyone is talking about him.

I considered going with Michael Pineda, but he’s a two-pitch hurler who struggles to keep the ball in the yard and never seems to have results that match the skills.

I considered going with James Paxton but I didn’t want to suggest a guy who always has concerns with something on his body breaking (he’s 28 and has 286 innings of big league work). Plus, everyone is talking about Paxton.

Joe Ross has a great arm but his, and his brother’s, health woes concern me.

Jharel Cotton has an intensely impressive changeup, but I’m not sure he isn’t ultimately better served by being a bullpen arm long-term.

Collin McHugh was up for consideration. However, he’s already “broke out”, see 2015, and he is dealing with “dead arm” this spring.

I considered suggesting Luis Severino, love the stuff, but I’m not sure that he will even end up in the starting rotation to being the season with the Yankees.

So, with some trepidation my call for breakout hurler in 2017 is...

Aaron Nola

Two things before I dig in.

1 – There are health concerns with Nola.

Nola missed the last two months of 2016 with an elbow strain. The “low-grade” sprain of the UCL and tendons in his elbow led to him being shut down last season before eventually having a PRP injection in September.

He is said to be totally fine as of this writing.

He’s on a normal program in spring training this season.

But still, the elbow is a concern. “My No. 1 goal is to stay healthy,” Nola said. “That’s always going to be my No. 1 goal. … I’m definitely looking forward to this year. An injury-free [season] is definitely important for me. I’m just glad it wasn’t anything big or anything prolonged.”

Before you say ‘terrible call Ray cause of that wonky elbow,’ let me ask you – which pitcher doesn’t have concerns heading into 2017?

Kershaw has back concerns.

Scherzer has finger concerns.

Syndergaard has elbow concerns.

Darvish has neck/shoulder concerns.

Strasburg – he has everything concerns.

Carrasco seemingly always struggles to throw 180-innings.

deGrom is coming back from surgery.

Maeda simply wore out at the end of last season.

Duffy simply wore out at the end of last season.

Etc., etc., etc.

It seems like about a third of the top-50 arms have serious concerns heading into the 2017.

You gotta plant your pole somewhere.

I’m going with Nola, knowing full well that the health concerns are real and that it could short circuit his season completely.

Same time, I’m the guy who suggests you draft the likes of Ian Kennedy, Gio Gonzalez and Jeff Samardzija for innings and strikeouts, something you also might consider doing if you’re going to roster Nola this season.

I’m suggesting you embrace risk with Nola.

2 - Let me clear as to what the expectations are with Nola. Nola should not be expected to go Kluber or Hendricks this season. Guys don’t do what that duo did. Sure, I predicted a breakout for both of those arms and they made me look like a genius. But true genius is also being authentic, and if I’m being truthful there is no way I thought Kluber would go from relative anonymity to the Cy Young Award or that Hendricks would lead the league in ERA. A breakout versus the relative cost on draft day is what we’re talking about here... not a prediction of a top-10 starting pitcher season. Given those expectations, Nola is a great bet to drastically outpace his draft day cost... if his elbow holds up of course.

THE PLAYER PROFILE

Aaron Nola

23 years old

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’2”, 195 lbs

Position: Starting Pitcher

THE NUMBERS

Minor League Overall Rankings for Nola who was drafted 7^th overall in the 2014 Entry Draft.

THE SKILLS

Nola has one of the best pitches in baseball, his curveball. According to work done by Eno Sarris, Nola’s curveball was the 25^th best pitch in baseball last season for a starting pitcher. Not the 25^th best curveball, but the 25^th best overall pitch of any kind. Watch these highlights. The pitch is filthy with great tilt and sink. Filthy.

Nola’s curveball was thrown on 34 percent of his pitches last season. Amongst pitchers that threw 100-innings last season that was the fifth highest rate in baseball (Rich Hill 49.7 percent, Drew Pomeranz 39.2, Tyler Duffey 38.7 and Jose Fernandez at 33.8 percent). Batters simply cannot hit the pitch as they have posted a .176/.213/.266 slash line against it over 875 thrown curves in his young career.

Let’s talk the skills with Nola, not just the outstanding curveball.

Nola has a 9.02 K/9 rate with 189 strikeouts over 188.2 innings with the Phillies. That’s obviously an elite mark. However, the mark in the minors was 7.49, so we have to ask, is Nola really a strikeout an inning arm? The answer is not likely. Through 33 big league starts his swinging strike rate is 9.6 percent, a league average number. Given his overall skills, and where he is in his development, expect that number to be closer to his minor-league rate than the number he’s posted to this point with the Phillies. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see the number in the 8’s in 2017.

Nola may not be Mr. Strikeout, but he has a lot to like in regards to limiting the walk. In 30 outings in the minors his walk rate per nine innings was 1.53. In 33 outings in the bigs his BB/9 rate is 2.29. That walk rate ranks Nola 42^nd out of 148 men who have thrown 180-innings since the start of the 2015 season. He simply doesn’t beat himself with the free pass, partly because he gets ahead in the count with a 61.9 first strike percentage in his career. (51^st out of those 148 men).

The result of the strikeout and walk totals is a 3.94 K/BB ratio (the number was 4.89 in the minors). That mark is 24^th out of 148 qualifiers since the start of the 2015 season.

I saw it all the time, I want strikeouts, no walks and... groundouts.

Nola generates a lot of grounders with the downward movement on his changeup and curveball. The end result being a ground ball rate of 52.0 percent, an excellent mark no matter what other skills a starting pitcher owns. The mark is the 18^th best in baseball in our 148 pitcher sample size.

Question for you. How many pitchers out of that 148 who have thrown at least 180-innings the past two seasons have a K/9 rate of 9.00, a walk rate under 2.30 and a GB/FB ratio of 52 percent? Thirteen arms have a 9.00 K/9 and 2.30 or better BB/9, but add in the grounder rate of 52.0 percent and the answer to the question is... one – Aaron Nola.

The skills that I want are easily identifiable with Nola. Period.

Let’s talk performance last season.

Through 12 starts last season Nola was a dominant performer, one of the best in baseball actually. He then started to suffer elbow woes and his production tanked. Here’s the breakdown.

Yowzahs is right.

Nola was hideous those last eight starts as his ERA tripled, his WHIP doubled and his walk rate doubled. Honestly, he was about the worst starting pitcher in baseball those final eight trips to the bump. But, did you also note that his K/9 rate was exactly the same? Did you notice that his homer rate was exactly the same? Did you notice that his ground ball rate actually went up despite the struggles? There were still almost as many things to like during his struggles as there were to hate, and even if you’re not a BABIP wizard, you know that the .451 BABIP mark batters posted off him his final eight starts is absurd, especially since his line drive rate was a mere 19.3 percent those final eight starts, a mark that is actually below his career rate of 20.0 percent.

A few final notes with Nola.

Nola has a 67.9 left on base percentage. The league average is 70 percent. The number is almost certain to rise in 2017.

Nola might have a 4.29 raw ERA, because of those final eight outings, but as noted his skills are much better than that. The above data should speak this, but here is a bit more data.

No one hits Nola that well. It doesn’t matter where the game is played or who is at the plate.

I have to think that better times are ahead for Nola... provided he stays healthy of course.

PLAYING TIME

As long as his arm holds up he will be taking the ball every five games for the Phillies.

AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA

As of this writing, here is Nola’s ADP data.

Fantasy Alarm Player Rankings

CONCLUSION

Nola is a young pitcher with impressive skills. He strikes guys out at a nice rate, doesn’t walk many, and gets tons of ground balls. He’s also an elite talent who prognosticators have long thought of as a top of the rotation arm. There are risks aplenty because of the health concerns with that elbow, but the skills, and the draft day cost, suggest that Nola is capable of a nice breakout effort in 2017.

10-Team Mixed: Nola is a 3^rd or 4^th in this format. Being aggressive likely isn’t much of an issue either since there will be so many arms on waivers to turn to if the worst occurs.

12-Team Mixed: With his cost likely to be a 5^th SP based on ADP, Nola is well worth calling out on draft day to be a part of your team as your 4^th starter.   

15-Team Mixed: Oddly, people are scared away by the final eight starts from Nola and the arm concerns he enters the year with. At the same time they look right past the concerns with all those other arms that are being taken well before Aaron on draft day. A strong target as a 3 or 4.

NL-Only League: Investing heavily in this format is riskier than in any other because of the potential blowout. I’d still do it, provided the cost doesn’t skyrocket.