2017 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Julio Teheran

Julio Teheran

26 years old

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’2”, 205 lbs

Position: Starting Pitcher

THE NUMBERS

THE SKILLS

Julio Teheran is not a star, but check out the average effort Julio's thrown up the last four years: 12 wins, 3.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 174 strikeouts over 199 innings. He's not an ace, but he's 26 year old "young-vet" who is in line to post yet another solid season... albeit under the radar. Let’s explore.

Let’s talk record.

Yes, Teheran won seven games last year, and 18 the last two seasons. I get it. Same time, two things. (1) Teheran has won 14 games in 2-of-4 seasons. Jose Quintana has never won 14 games. (2) You know I don’t personally worry too much about wins-loses since so much goes into it besides the skill of the hurler. Plus, the Braves should be a bit better, that is if their old guys can stay healthy (see Phillips Dealt to Braves).

I’m removing the first two years of Teheran’s career in what follows. It’s not because I don’t like what I see there, it’s because he threw a total of 26 innings in those two campaigns.

The last four seasons Teheran has thrown at least 185.2 innings with at least 167 strikeouts every season. Pretty simple if you look at it on the surface.

The last four seasons Teheran has one season with an ERA over 3.21. Pretty simple if you look at it on the surface.

The last four seasons Teheran has one season with a WHIP over 1.17. Pretty simple if you look at it on the surface.

The last four seasons Teheran has had a strikeout rate per nine innings between 7.57 and 7.99 three times. Pretty simple if you look at it on the surface.

The last four seasons Teheran has one season with a walk rate per nine innings above 2.18. Pretty simple if you look at it on the surface.

So why is it that no one likes Teheran? Seems likely he’s an ideal 2/3 in mixed leagues.

Speaking of Quintana, who everyone drafts without a concern, let’s compare his work to that of Teheran. Here are the career numbers of both men.

As you can see, you can make a sound argument that Teheran is the equal of Quintana, yet don’t you generally hear a lot more about Jose than Julio?

We complain all the time about the up and down nature of players, don’t we? Where is that up and down with Teheran? It really doesn’t exist (to a great extent). This fact should be a situation that causes you to move Teheran up a spot or two in your rankings. With guys like Syndergaard, Strasburg, Carrasco, deGrom, Maeda, all dealing with concerns about their arms, why doesn’t 200 innings and 170 strikeouts from Teheran sound better to you?

Teheran isn’t a big-time K producer, his career rate is 7.77 which is slightly below the league average, but because he throws 200 innings a year he’s routinely producing a highish total. The last four seasons his total of 694 strikeouts ties him with Gio Gonzalez for 18^th in baseball. By the way, in each of the last four seasons his swinging strike rate has been between 10.3 and 10.9 percent each seasons. He is what he is.

Teheran has a 2.40 career BB/9 rate, a total he has undershoot (meaning he was better than that), three times in four seasons. Amongst pitchers that have thrown at least 600-innings the past four seasons his 2.38 walk rate per nine ranks him 24^th in baseball.

Add those two measures together and Teheran has a K/BB ratio of 3.65 or better in ¾ seasons. Justin Verlander has a 3.65 or better K/BB ratio four times in his entire career.

Teheran has a blah 0.91 GB/FB ratio for his career. The mark was 0.93 last season. That’s more fly balls than I would like to see allowed. His HR/FB ratio is 10.1 percent for his career. A league average number. Teheran has a 1.06 HR/9 mark, a league average number. The rate was 1.05 last season. The Braves are moving into a new park in ’17 so keep an eye on this number.

Teheran had a 33.1 percent hard-hit ball rate last season, 18^th worst in baseball. That’s a bit concerning, but his career mark is 31.3 percent and each year from 2013-15 the mark was between 29.5 and 31.4 percent. The number seems likely to dip a bit in the coming season. I feel especially good about that comment when you consider the following.

CONCLUSION

Honestly, I don’t see a real issue here. Maybe a few too many fly balls, maybe a slight increase in that hard-hit ball rate, but overall this is one stable set of tools. There isn’t much injury downside. There is lots of year to year consistency. The birth certificate says 26 years old. This is a skill-set to invest in.

10-Team Mixed: An ideal SP3 who often is there for that pull. If you gotta stretch to an SP2 it’s likely OK too, because the league is shallow and you should be able to build up a strong offense while waiting a bit on the hill.

12-Team Mixed: His profile suggests rock solid, but not elite. His profile also suggests that he deserves a reliability grade of an “A.” Good enough for me.

15-Team Mixed: If he’s my SP2, totally fine with that. You should be too. He allows you the ability to build that offense early while others are grabbing arms.

NL-Only League: Health and consistency. Invest.

Here’s a link to the award winning Player Profile Series.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).