2017 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Brad Miller

Brad Miller
Age: 27 years old
Bats/Throws: L/R
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 195 lbs
Position: 1B, SS

THE NUMBERS

*A second round selection in the 2011 Entry Draft.

THE SKILLS
 

Last year I wrote the following about Miller in his 2016 Player Profile.

“The bottom line is that we simply don’t have much certainty at this position with makes a player like Miller, as average as he looks, as a potentially nice option because of his power/speed combo and defensive eligibility... What choosing Miller does is allow you to build strength at your other positions as Miller might end up being taken rounds after some of the other more well-known games at the position. Remember Miller’s pedigree and flexibility in the later rounds... I believe Miller has a shot to be a top-15 shortstop.”

Pretty much accurate there, wouldn’t you say?

Let’s dive in.

AVERAGE: As a minor leaguer, over 219 games, there weren’t many who were better than Miller who hit .334. Yeah, he mashed the hell out of it. Flash forward to four years of major league experience and we’ve got a .246 hitter. Yep, for his career, Miller has been slightly below the league average in batting average. Any thoughts to that number improving in 2017? Last season Miller had a 3-year low in walk rate (7.8 percent). Last season he had a career worst 24.8 strikeout rate. The result was a 4-year low in the BB/K column of 0.32, a below league average number. Not good. Miller has a .287 BABIP for his career, again, a slightly below league average number. The mark was .277 last season, and should improve a bit in the coming season, but we’re still talking league average stuff. What about the line drive rate? The mark was a bit low last season at 18.5 percent given his career mark of 19.7 percent, but that career mark screams league average. Last season the leagues hard hit rate was 31.4 percent, the second best mark in baseball since 2002. Miller’s career mark? Try 31.4 percent. He was better at 35.1 percent last season, but the mark is more likely to fall a bit back than to repeat. Add it all up and it’s hard to suggest that Miller is anything in this category other than what we have seen from him to this point.

HOMERS: Miller averaged 10 homers a season his first three years in the majors as he hit a total of 29 homer his first three campaigns. Last season he hit 30. What’s going on? As I discussed in All About the Home Run, Miller was sixth in baseball last season with 11 “Just Enough” home runs. That level of ‘barely getting it done’ is unlikely to be repeated. Miller posted a 36.8 percent fly ball rate last season. His career mark is 34.8 percent. Not much growth there. Remember, players establish their own baseline over rolling three year periods of time in the HR/FB category. It’s pretty much the way it is. In his first three seasons Miller posted marks of 9.9, 9.6 and 10.3 percent. Extremely consistent over those three seasons with nearly identical marks each year was Miller. Last season? The mark leapt to 20.4 percent. Yes, he doubled his HR/FB mark last season as the mark was the 17^th in baseball. Miller is not that guy. The number will dive in 2017, perhaps by upwards of half. Note that he also saw his Isolated Power mark explode. After three years between .144 and .154 the mark last season was .239. Again, he’s not that guy.

RUN PRODUCTION: As noted above, Miller isn’t exactly a batting average or walks machine. That really harms his outlook in the runs scored column as his career OBP is just .310. That’s a number that is worse than the league average, and it’s not likely to improve much this season (it was .304 last year). Last season Miller hit second 65 times and cleanup 57 times. That’s 122 games hitting 2^nd or 4^th and he still barely hit 70-runs, even while knocking himself in 30 times. Don’t expect much growth in that column. As for his RBI totals, that doesn’t figure to go up either. Miller hit just .253 last season with runners on base with a .781 OPS, nearly identical marks to the .243 and .786 he posted overall. The RBIs are likely to dip with a bit of a loss of power.

STEALS: He has some speed. Not a lot, but a little. Only once in three full seasons has he swiped seven bases, but over the last two years he’s averaged 10 steals thanks to 13 thefts in 2015. Though he stole 23 bases in 2012 it’s clear that his game is way more 5-10 than it is 15-20 in terms of the expectations games in the steals column.

PLAYING TIME

Here’s the games played chart for Miller in 2016.

Miller will obviously qualify at first base and shortstop in all leagues in 2016. That flexibility is wonderful, especially in deeper leagues. Sounds like he’s going to pick up another position as well.

Logan Morrison was signed to a 1-year deal and it sounds like he will play first base against righties.

Logan Forsythe was sent to the Dodgers in the Jose De Leon deal.

Matt Duffy, acquired last season, will start at shortstop.

The outfield looks like a Steven Souza, Kevin Kiermaier, Colby Rasmus with Mallex Smith as a reserve (Corey Dickerson too, though it sounds like he could see a lot of time at DH).

So where does that leave Miller? Sure seems like he is going to be the second sacker for the Rays. Pretty epic if Miller does play second base as seems extremely likely as of this writing.

CONCLUSION

Miller is really just a guy, one that is more likely than not to see a decrease in production based upon his 2016 effort. Still, he qualifies at two spots and seems destined to add a third, and that’s very intriguing as a relatively cheapish option on draft day.

10-Team Mixed: He’s not a starter at any position in this format. Best he can be expected to be is a starting option at middle infield.

12-Team Mixed: Much like with the 10-teamer, you really don’t want to be dependent on Miller to be your lone option at shortstop. He’s certainly not startable at first base on day one either.

15-Team Mixed: The flexibility he brings is worth adding a buck or two to his cost, or pushing him up a round in a snake setup. Just realize that he’s a limited player who is likely to see some pullback from last year’s levels, especially in the home run category.

AL-Only League: You can’t go wrong with his three position, well two for now, eligibility in this format. The ability to move him from 1B, to CI, to 2B, to MI, to OF to UT is an extremely significant feature well worth investing in.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).