2017 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen

Age: 30 years old

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 5'11"/175 lbs

Position: Outfield

THE NUMBERS

THE SKILLS

Andrew McCutchen is just 30 years old, certainly not an age where we think a player will be dealing with catastrophic skills failure. So did his skills fall off the table last season or was something else going on?

THE AVERAGE

A career .292 hitter, McCutchen tanked last season with a career worst .256. Note that he hit .259 back in 2011 and rebounded to hit a career best .327. He’s older now, and I’m not suggesting that he’s gonna do that again, but the data is there and should be referenced.

In eight years in the big leagues, McCutchen has hit under .286 one time. That should also be noted.

So, let’s dig into it.

Let’s compare his 2016 effort to his career levels.

As you can see, his hit dispersion was no different that it always has been.

How about how the ball went after he hit it?

His soft hit ball rate went way up. That’s a concern after 4-straight years under 13.2 percent. Note the mark was 19.2 percent back in that 2011 season in which he struggled. However, his hard-hit ball rate wasn’t down that much when compared to his career mark. Alas, the rate was over 39 percent each year from 2013-15, so the fall last season was a bit worse than it appears on the surface. But, let’s check out his exit velocity, something you heard mentioned an awful lot with McCutchen as talk of his struggles grew last season. How bad were things last year? Let’s look at the last two years (data from BaseballSavant).

2015

2016

As you can see, his exit velocity was down on pitches up and out of the strike zone from 2015 to 2016.

Pitches down and out of the strike zone were virtually the same both years.

A ball right down the middle – the same.

Pitches away McCutchen he actually had a higher exit velocity in 2016.

The problem area were the inside strikes. He simply didn’t eject balls with as much ferocity.

As noted in an MLB report, after a first half of lagging exit velocity numbers, his production really took an upturn late in the year. In fact, over each week of the final two months of the season his exit velocity was above the league average. In fact, his production really took off after he was benched for a series of games the first week of August. From August 5^th on he hit .284 with a 0.94 BB/K ratio as his OBP rose to .381. He was back to being Andrew McCutchen.

Some more data.

McCutchen had a 22.5 percent line drive rate last season, slightly better than his career rate of 21.1 percent. Despite that fact, he posted a .297 BABIP, his lowest mark in five years. The previous four seasons the mark was .339 or better and for his career the rate sits at .331. This data suggests some growth is likely in 2017.

McCutchen made contact on 83.8 percent of his swings on pitches inside the strike zone. That mark is below his 86.0 career rate but it’s also slightly better than the average is posted in 2014-15 (83.2 percent). On all the swings he took his contact rate was 76.8 percent last season. That mark is below his 79.3 percent career rate but it’s right on his mark the previous two seasons (77.2 percent). It’s also fair to point out that his swinging strike ratio was a career worst (10.7), but note that the mark was right in line with the 10.0 swinging strike rate he posted in 2014-15. Small steps back? Maybe. But nothing that suggests he’s a .250 hitter.

THE HOME RUN

McCutchen hit 24 homers last season.
His career 162 game average is 24 home runs.
From 2013-15 he averaged 23 home runs.

Check out the homer to fly ball ratio.

McCutchen had a 12.6 percent HR/FB ratio last season.
His career mark is 12.7 percent.
From 2013-15 his HR/FB mark was 13.3 percent.

So, what’s the complaint here? McCutchen was exactly the same performer in the home run category last season as he always is.

RUN PRODUCTION

From 2011 to 2015 McCutchen produced between 84 and 96 RBI.

From 2013-15 he averaged 88 RBI.

In 2016 he drove in 79 RBI.

That’s down, but is it really that far off? No, it isn’t. If he had one more RBI a month that would lead to 85 RBI which would leave him three off the 88 he averaged the previous three years.

He did have a down year with men on base. For his career his OPS mark is .904. Last year it was a career worst .768. The number should rebound. After all, he still hit .274 with a .373 OBP with runners on base last season, and that’s not exactly terrible production, is it?

As for runs scored...

McCutchen had a six year low with 79 runs scored. This mark was down. No doubt. Still, he averaged 92 runs a season the three years before. That means he was down 13 runs scored last season. Is two less runs a month something to panic about? Really? Let’s speak to his OBP for a moment.

McCutchen owns a .405 OBP for his career, a Hall of Fame level mark. Last year the rate was a mere .336, by far and away a career low (his previous worst was .364). ‘See Ray, told you his performance stunk last year.’ Is that really true? Let’s look at his walk rate. Last season the mark was 10.2 percent, a career low. ‘See Ray!” Let me ask you though, is that really that far off his 11.8 percent career mark? Note that he had hit his career mark of 11.8 twice from 2012-15 and missed it twice. He really wasn’t that far off. The biggest issue was the loss of batting average. Here’s a chart with the different between his batting average and OBP each season. The spread last season really was totally normal given his career levels.

As I said, he really wasn’t anywhere near as far off as you thought, at least in regards as his OBP as related to his batting average.

THE THEFT

Each of the first five years of his career McCutchen stole at least 20 bases. In 2014 he swiped 18. In 2015 he stole 11. Last year he stole six. Look folks, as players age they run less. Just how it is. I will say that the six thefts last year were disappointing, but are you really going to tell me that he isn’t capable of doubling that mark in 2017 to get back to his 2015 level? Really, you don’t think he is capable of that? He certainly can. Just look at Mike Trout. Trout went from 49 to 33 to 16 to 11 steals. He then went out and swiped 30 last season. McCutchen can reach double-digit steals in 2017.

CONCLUSION

As of this writing, McCutchen is barely being taken inside the top-20 as an outfielder. I can understand that and don’t have a huge issue with it. At the same time, I would feel very good about making McC my second outfielder in a mixed league. A proud, youngish former star, McCutchen finished as a top-5 NL MVP vote getter each year from 2012-15. He also was back to being himself the final two months of last season. Don’t allow yourself to forget those facts on draft day.

10-Team Mixed: I would bet that you could work a way to get McCutchen to be your third outfielder in this setup. That would be an epic move. As pointed out above, he really wasn’t as far off as so many seem to be suggesting this offseason.

12-Team Mixed: You have to decide your level of trust in a guy that was 5^th in NL MVP voting in 2015. My reading of the data is strong suggestive of him not being washed up making him an ideal early round talent that is likely to fall a round or two more than he should.

15-Team Mixed: No matter what folks, McCutchen had proven to be a 23-85-85 type of performer. He’s basically been that guy for six years. I love that stability. I love his age (30). I love the fact that he finished the year on a strong kick. I’m buying. So should you.

NL-Only League: Folks like the next great thing. Many will likely look at McCutchen as just a guy and ignore him early on. Don’t be someone in that group and realize that McCutchen can still be an extremely effective performer in the coming season.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).