2017 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Justin Upton

Justin Upton

Age: 29 years old

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’3”, 210 lbs

Position: Outfield

THE NUMBERS

THE SKILLS

Upton isn’t the superstar we hoped he would be after he went 20/20 in his first full season in 2009. No disagreement from me there.

He’s also nowhere near as bad as folks seem to think he is. Let me explain.

First off, he plays all the time. In each of the last five seasons he’s appeared in at least 149 games. Only two others have done that: Robinson Cano and Adrian Gonzalez. So many folks get hurt, and Upton simply doesn’t. Playing attention to a guy’s ability to stay on the field should be something you’re looking at when evaluating players.

Let’s talk skills.

Upton has five seasons of 15/15. He was also just one steal from a third 20/20 season in 2015. He’s swiped less than 10 bases in three of four years so he’s not a true stolen base threat, but a season of 15 thefts ain’t at all out of the realm of the possible with Upton.

Upton has scored at least 73 runs each of the last eight seasons. There are only four other men in baseball who have done that: Cano, Ian Kinsler, Andrew McCutchen and Ben Zobrist.

The last four seasons Upton has hit at least 26 homers each time out. Only six others have done that: Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Jones, David Ortiz and Mike Trout.

The last three years Upton has driven in at least 81 runs each time out. Only 13 others have done that.

What I’m saying is that Upton is good. Not elite, not great, but really good. His consistency from season-to-season should be something that engenders faith, not scorn. Speaking of those that detest Upton...

Last season, his first in Detroit, Upton appeared to feel the pressure of the big contract he signed (6-years, $132.75 million). In the first half he hit .235 with nine homers leading to a .670 OPS, a pathetic mark. His effort caused people to fire sale his services if they owned them, even leading some in shallow leagues to drop him outright. However, if you kept the faith you were rewarded with a massive, difference making second half of 22 homers, 49 RBI, 41 runs and a .916 OPS his last 68 contests. Those are numbers that Mike Trout would be proud of.

‘But Ray, I’m in a head-to-head league and Upton killed me last year.’ I’ve heard that many times when I bring up Upton’s name. But isn’t that statement one of perspective? Yes, he crushed you in H2H in the first half, true. However, in the second half he was a league winner. Check out his September: .292-13-28-28 with a 1.132 OPS over 27 games. As much as he ‘screwed you’ in the first half the guy was an otherworldly superstar in September. So again, it’s about perspective.

‘He’s too up and down for me.’

Is this true, or was that up and down thing mere an artifact of the 2016 season? Though most of you don’t want to hear it 2016 was an outlier, not the norm. Here are his month marks for the duration of his career. There’s a whole lot of similarity in these numbers.

When I look at six months, over 10 years, and see only one stanza with an OPS under .800 and one over .845, I’m led to the position that the guy is pretty stable, despite what you’re seat of the pants thoughts say.

Back to the fantasy production for a moment. Prepare to have your pants blown off. Why am I talking so much about pants today? So strange.

Justin Upton had 31 homers, 87 RBI, 81 runs and nine steals in 2016. May not knock your pants off, admittedly, but that’s still a pretty impressive fantasy line. In fact, the following is a list of players who could not match the four counting numbers produced by Upton last season: Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, Paul Goldschmidt, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon etc...

Here are the only men who could match 31-87-81-9 line last season: Mookie Betts, Brian Dozier, Rougned Odor, Todd Frazier and Justin Upton.

Mind blown, right? Pants still on?

Was Upton really that bad last season? Is he really someone to fade in 2017? I certainly don’t see that.

Batting average is the one issue with Upton. A career .268 hitter, he’s failed to reach that mark in 3-of-4 seasons including failing to reach the league average the last two years (.251 and .246). The last two seasons he’s posted the two lowest line drive rates he’s ever had. Odd given his age and overall skills. His GB/FB ratio has been very stable at 0.88 in 2015, 0.90 last season and 1.00 for his career. He’s posted BABIP marks of .304 and .301 the last two seasons. Those are the two lowest marks he’s posted since his rookie season and is well below his .326 career mark. In 2015 he posted a 0.43 BB/K ratio, right on his 0.41 career mark. Last season, largely because of his early slump, Upton posted a 28.6 K-rate, the worst in eight years, leading to a career worst 0.28 mark. He also had a walk rate of 8.0 percent, a 9-year low. The data suggests a rebound is coming here. Keep an eye early on with those strikeout and walk rates though as what happened last season is a bit concerning.

CONCLUSION

Better than most people seem to think, Upton is a solid second outfielder who plays daily, produces plenty, and better yet, won’t cost you much as he should on draft day.

10-Team Mixed: Yes, I will take him as a second outfield option in this setup. The average is something that needs to be dealt with, pair him with a Cabrera/Votto/Yelich type, and watch the counting category production blossom.

12-Team Mixed: A second outfield option whose cost isn’t going to be exorbitant. The month to month consistency, the overall production category consistency, is tremendously appealing. Others will chase the potential, so why don’t you simply chase the production?

15-Team Mixed: You know what I’m going to say, so do I need to say it?

AL-Only League: He’s a top-10 outfielder in this setup. His consistency alone should lead you to take him over a player like Jose Bautista who has a hard time staying on the field.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray on the channel Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).