2017 FSTA Experts Baseball Draft

Published: Jan 25, 2017

I always find myself writing my review of the FSTA draft in the airport. It’s often really early (715 AM this time). I’m eating a granola bar by Nature Valley while listening to a Shania Twain song. I believe it’s her first hit, Any Man of Mine. OK, I know it is. I used to have a crush on her. There’s nothing wrong with that. She’s a pretty lady with a good voice and I’m not ashamed of youthful infatuation. Other things I’ve done on this trip… might be ashamed of that, but I digress.

So let me set the scene.

Nashville
January 23^rd, 2017

Seven PM local time.

Me and 12 of my besties put together their fantasy squads. It’s so early there’s a lot of interesting situations that arise every year – yes, we are masochists for doing a draft this early but it’s for you, the people that we do it. Here are the participants in order of draft selection:

1 - Fantistics Fantasy Sports Anthony Perri
2 - Colton & The Wolfman    Glenn Colton, Rick Wolf, Stacie Stern
3 - Mastersball                      Todd Zola, Lawr Michaels
4 - USA TODAY Sports         Steve Gardner, Howard Kamen
5 - CDM Sports Charlie Wiegert, Vlad Sedler
6 - NFBC                               Greg Ambrosius, Tom Kessenich
7 - RotoWire                           Jeff Erickson, Derek Van Riper
8 - FNTSY                              Nando DiFino, Mike Cardano
9 – SiriusXM Fantasy Radio Ray Flowers
10 - Fantasy Alarm                Jeff Mans, Ted Schuster
11 – Ronshandler.com           Ron Shandler
12 – Scout Fantasy                 Mark “Dr Roto” Bloom
13 - Baseball HQ                  Ray Murphy, Defending Champs

The rules, pretty straight forward stuff.

13-team, mixed league, 5x5 scoring, $1000 in season FAAB for waivers

ROSTERS: Each team will draft 2-C, 1-1B, 1-3B, 1-CI, 1-2B, 1-SS, 1-MI, 5-OF, 1-DH, 9-P, 6 reserves.

Now on to the team that I put together.

*Round in parenthesis.

C: Yadier Molina (14), Austin Hedges (22)
1B: Anthony Rizzo (1)
2B: Javier Baez (7)
3B: Anthony Rendon (6)
SS: Carlos Correa (2)
MI: Elvis Andrus (12)
CI: Yoan Moncada (17)
OF: Christian Yelich (3), J.D. Martinez (4), Hunter Pence (10), Randal Grichuk (15), Jason Heyward (18)
UT: Yulieski Gurriel (24)

PITCHING: Jon Lester (5), Julio Teheran (8), Craig Kimbrel (9), Marcus Stroman (11), Danny Salazar (13), Sonny Gray (16), Brandon Maurer (19), Jeff Samardzija (20), Nate Jones (21)

BENCH: Chris Carter (23), Fernando Rodney (25), Santiago Casilla (26), Brandon Kintzler (27), Colin McHugh (28), Lewis Brinson (29)

I waited on catching (4^th round for Gary Sanchez?). Molina is an acceptable option, no doubt. Hedges? Reaching there a bit, but Derek Norris is gone and the Padres appear likely to give Hedges a whole lot of work.

Rizzo or Bryce Harper? I probably should have taken Harper in the first round. Certainly has more to give in the 5x5 categories than Rizzo. My plan was to take a few more risks that normal, so I opted for the rock of consistency that is Rizzo instead, though again, probably should have taken Harper.

Baez has 30/30 upside. I’d settle with a 20/20 effort this season. Lots of holes in that game, but also tremendous upside. Plus, he qualifies at like every position on the field, and with this draft being held so early I thought that he was worth reaching a bit on so that he could cover me at multiple spots if need be (injuries could be a killer with this draft coming so early).

Rendon didn’t produce the average folks wanted last year, but a .280-20-75-100-10 season is totally doable for him this year. Totally. I think he has the skills to bat higher than that as well. Just saying.

Correa nearly went 20/15 in both his big league seasons and folks are disappointed with him. That old expectation game got him. He will go 20/20 this season and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if a breakout happened. Like, in a major way. Him over Trea Turner seems like a good position to hold, though I know many out there are going with Turner instead.

Andrus just goes out and produces. Nothing great, but 25 steals and a spot in the daily lineup leading to 80 or so runs. We also saw him hit over .300 last year with everything going right. I’ll take that in the 12^th round.

Moncada was a risk. Still, Todd Frazier could be dealt by the White Sox. Perhaps Brett Lawrie will be hurt (seemingly always is). Perhaps Moncada hits .350 with four steals in spring and he makes the club. Could happen. Could. I grabbed Carter later to give me that corner infield coverage I needed just in case. I know Carter doesn’t have a squad, but he was like five rounds cheaper than Mike Napoli. Had to take that chance. It’s not too often you get a 40-homer bat that late. He will sign somewhere and get his 500 at-bats. I think. Hopefully. Maybe. Oh hell, was it a terrible pick?

I’m in the Denver airport now. 11:00 AM local time. Flight delayed an hour allowing me the time to finish this writeup. I’m such a world traveler.

In the outfield… I love Yelich and those skills. He still doesn’t hit the ball in the air enough, but a .300 season with 20/20 is doable if it all comes together. Not many guys are legitimate threats to hit .300 with 30 homers. I think JDM is one of those guys. Pence in the tenth might be a bit early for some, and injuries are starting to become an issue, but the guy was as productive last season as ever (.275-9-40 with a .478 SLG in 52 games). Grichuk has some holes in his game, but as I noted in his Player Profile there’s also plenty to like there. Would it really be shocking to see the 27 year old Heyward go .270-20-70-80-10 this season? I don’t think it would be, and I’ll take the shot since he’s my fifth outfielder. Folks forget he was at one time a 20/20 guy. True story. Look it up.

Gurriel has to be a thing this year, doesn’t he? I recall last year all the hoopla, but now it’s All Quiet on the Western front with him. No reason to think the 33 year old infielder doesn’t do something productive this season. With Carter gone, Luis Valbuena gone and A.J. Reed an uncertainty, seems like Gurriel could get a shot at some substantial time at first base, doesn’t it?

Look at the bump. Took some risks, maybe reached a bit, but I like this staff a lot.

Stability thy name is Jon Lester.

Teheran won like (-5) games last year. I don’t care. Look at his three year average: 7.78 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 1.14 WHIP, 3.37 ERA in 201 innings a season. Like the skills.

Stroman threw 200-innings last season and gets a hellacious number of grounders. The ratios will be better this season.

Salazar struggled with walks last year for the first time (check the record – only once in four years has his walk rate been over three). Same time, his arm is huge, and if it’s right there a massive return coming from a guy who could be a top-20 starting pitcher.

Took a shot on Gray. Would have preferred to have some data, to see him throw and get a chance to eyeball that arm… but it’s January so that ain’t happening.

Samardzija might have pitched better than you thought last season, even though his effort was predictably uneven. Better than 3:1 K/BB, more than 200-innings, 1.20 WHIP. Solid which I will take.

Maurer profiles as the Padres closer and pitched pretty decently in the second half (3.10 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 4.40 K/BB.251 wOBA).

I grabbed Jones theorizing that (A) he pitched better than David Robertson last year and (B) that Robertson could always end up being dealt as the rebuilding Sox likely don’t need a closer making that much money on that squad. Let’s talk reserve rounds.

This draft is soooooo early, bullpen in particular in multiple spots are in flux. I tried to take advantage of that situation late rationalizing that it’s easier to pick up a 20-homer bat off waivers than it is to have to fight half the league for the next closer in waiting who has moved into a 9^th inning role. Tried it a couple of years back in an FSTA draft and grabbed K-Rod in the 29^th round… he went on to save 40+ games for the Brewers. Rodney is the D’backs closer as of this writing. If he got to 20 saves I would be happy. Casila was given a 2-year deal by the Athletics worth like $11 million (he can make a few million more in incentives as well). Do the A’s spend that much on middle relievers? It’s not like Ryan Madson pitched very well last season (Casilla pitched better). Kintzler might have to fend off Glen Perkins IF he can prove he’s healthy. For now, it’s Kintzler’s job to lose (see Minor Signings).

McHugh pitched better than most thought last season (see Pitching Targets to Know).

Brinson was a shot in the dark. Obviously first guy I let go if he doesn’t show well in Spring. Other hand, if he shows well I could easily have grabbed a 4/5 outfielder with my last pick.

In total… I loved the first four rounds. I like the youth. There’s a good deal of it. I took a few shots, something I don’t always do. I tried to bag some young arms coming off down seasons (Teheran, Gray, Salazar). I waited on bullpen arms and gave myself a good shot at racking up a lot of cheap saves that I can ride out or trade (yes, we can finally trade in this league).

Some video about the draft.