2017 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk

Age: 25 years old

Bats/Throws: R/R

Height/Weight: 6’1”, 205 lbs

Position: Outfield

THE NUMBERS
 

Minor League Career: Grichuck missed 88 games with a thumb issue in 2010. Grichuk missed 101 days in 2011 with a knee injury. Grichuk posted a .279/.320/.499 slash line over 564 games.

THE SKILLS

The guy can mash. Let’s start with that. A ripped human being with tons of power, make no mistake that this is a future 30 home run bat. In 282 major league games Grichuck has hit 44 homers with a high of 24 homers last season over 446 at-bats. Grichuk owns a 43.2 percent fly ball rate, a nice number for a power hitter that isn’t too high that it would negatively impact other aspects of his offensive game. Grichuk also owns a 17.0 percent HR/FB ratio for his young career, a mark he has been slightly over each of the past two season (19.1 and 17.9 percent). He has the skills to maintain that rate.

Furthermore, let’s look at Isolated Power for a moment which is a measure of a player’s ability to produce power, i.e. extra bases. An ISO mark of .140 is a league average number. Anything over .200 is an impressive, all-star caliber mark. Note that Grichuk owns a .241 career mark. That’s an excellent, MVP level type of mark.

Grichuk hits the ball hard. His hard hit ball rate was 39.9 percent, and amongst men with 450 plate appearances last season that was 17^th best in baseball.

Grichuk also owns a 48.0 percent pull rate, and the pull field is where you want to hit the pelota if you want to hit the ball into the seats. Again, Grichuk can mash.

Now, the rest of the game, and the concerns.

Grichuk has walked a mere 55 times to this point leading to a poor 5.8 percent walk rate. Really poor actually. He also strikeouts out a ton with 282 strikeouts in 879 at-bats which is terrible. Combined the 5.8 percent walk rate and 29.9 percent K-rate leads to a 0.20 BB/K ratio. That’s a mark that is roughly half the league average. That’s not going to get it done, and if he continues to operate at that level of ineffectiveness he will be hard pressed to improve upon the .254 batting average he owns in his young career. His approach needs work. At least he doesn’t have any platoon splits as he’s hit .250 against lefties and .256 against righties in his brief career. Impressively, the OPS is nearly identical as well with a .787 mark against lefties and an .802 mark against righties. He shouldn’t lose playing time based upon hurler matchups.

The lack of walks also impacts Grichuk’s ability to score runs, and to consistently get on base. That’s an obvious concern. Here’s the number: .302. Grichuk has a .302 career on-base percentage. Another number. The league average since he began his career in 2014 is .323. The guy has to work on this aspect of his game. This approach, no walks, lots of strikeouts, big swings, can lead to extensive slumps that can put playing time at risk if plausible alternatives are available.

Grichuk isn’t a base stealer by any means with nine steals in 17 attempts. Really Randal, you should stop running if you’re barely going to be successful half the time.

PLAYING TIME

The Cardinals brought in Dexter Fowler. He will obviously play every day.

Stephen Piscotty is coming off a .273-22-85-76-7 with an .800 OPS. He will play daily.

That leaves a corner outfield spot for Grichuk to step through since Matt Holliday is now with the Yankees. Grichuk has an open door for 500+ at-bats. If he produces, he will get to that level of work.

CONCLUSION

Grichuk could easily go Adam Duvall on pitchers this season. He could also continue to be the somewhat middling player we’ve seen to this point. Given his age, and the power stroke, he’s a guy the Oracle is taking chances on all over the place in 2017.

10-Team Mixed: No steals and no batting average means that Grichuk is potentially just a guy in this format. When he’s surging you’ll want him active. When he’s slumping you could possibly send him to the waiver-wire (though I would still like to avoid that). With so many homers being hit leaguewide now, 25-30 homers isn’t what it used to be in a league of this size if the rest of the game doesn’t stand out.

12-Team Mixed: He’s an ideal fourth outfielder in this format, and if you can grab him to be your fifth you’re in a great spot. People always tend to poo-poo guys like Grichuk or Jay Bruce, but it’s not like 25-80-80 seasons are easy to come by.

15-Team Mixed: Grichuk’s profile is one to attack in this format. Young, powerful, seemingly locked into playing time, some moderate growth would make him a third outfielder possibility here on draft day.

NL-Only League: A legit 30 homer option, the weaknesses in his game fade a bit in a league that is this deep. With playing time will come production. He’s a guy you want in this format given that the cost will be moderate as the perception is that he’s not going to match the expectations of the past.

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