2017 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Jake Lamb

Jake Lamb

Age: 26 years old

Bats/Throws:  L/R

Height/Weight: 6’2”, 220 lbs

Position: Third base

THE NUMBERS

Before the start of the 2015 baseball season Lamb was ranked as the 78^th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America and 80^th according to MLB.com.

THE SKILLS

Last season Lamb had 29 homers. That’s more than Justin Turner, Miguel Sano and Maikel Franco to name just a few.

Last season Lamb had 91 RBI. That’s more than Anthony Rendon.

Last season Lamb posted 81 runs. That’s the same total as Evan Longoria.

Last season Lamb had a .840 OPS. That’s the same number as Longoria.

It was a hell of a season from a guy who didn’t do anything in 2015.

OK, before I start to waste your time searching for things to like – there are some for sure – I’ve gotta tell you I have one massive concern that should freak you all out – Jake Lamb cannot hit left-handed pitching.

I’ve heard it all from the fanboys – ‘the data set is too small, you have to give him more time.’ Maybe, but I’m gonna present what I see and let you decide.

In 177 at-bats against lefties, and 202 plate appearances, Lamb has hit .169 with a .262 OBP and .311 SLG at the big league level. The slugging is pathetic, the on-base number is hideous, and the batting average is atrocious. Seriously, I don’t know which number of the god-awful threesome is the worst. It’s embarrassing and those numbers scream out one word – platoon. If you were only looking at the numbers you would 100 percent agree with that assessment. So, take away the fanboy with Lamb and face the fact that he’s been absolutely abysmal when a lefty is on the hill. Period. However, I will grant you the following...

In 2014 in the minors he hit .340 with three homers over 97 at-bats against lefties at Double-A.

In 2013 in the minors he hit .281 with three homers in 57 at-bats against lefties at High-A.

In 2012 in the minors hit .303 in the minors with no homers in 66 at-bats against lefties.

It is fair to point out that Lamb did hit lefties pretty well in the minors (pretty darn well actually). Of course, 22 year olds with C- sliders are a bit different than grown men with B+ sliders at the big-league level, and to this point the “men” have dominated Lamb completely. You can see this pretty clearly in the following chart. Against lefties, in his big league career, it’s a ton of grounders to the right side and weak fly balls to left field (thanks to Fangraphs).

Maybe things change with Lamb and he moves back toward his minor-league level of production against lefties. Maybe. At same point, he’s done nothing to this point in the big leagues against lefties. N o t h i n g. I need to see him have success against portsiders before I can blindly say it’s there, it’s just in hibernation.

Why did Lamb improve last season? Let’s take a look.

Lamb hit 32.4 percent of his batted balls skyward in 2015. In 2016 that fly ball number was slightly elevated at 36.7 percent (league average is 35 percent). More fly balls certainly helped him in the homer department but it was the explosion in the HR/FB ratio that really sent his numbers a flying last season. After posting a 7.2 HR/FB ratio in 2015 that number skyrocketed to 21.2 percent last season. Players don’t do that, triple that number and hold on to it, yet there it is. The question therefore becomes did he “deserve” the 21.2 percent mark?

Lamb did average 407 feet per homer last season, a mark that was bettered by 44 men.

According to ESPN he had two “Lucky” home runs.

Taking a broader look he had 10 homers classified as “Just Enough”, a mark only 19 men exceeded.

Lamb hit four ‘No Doubt” homers. Eighty-three men had more.

That doesn’t exactly sound like the profile of a man who is a good bet to hit 30 homers in 2017, even though his .509 SLG and .260 Isolated Power mark last season speak to the fact that his guy knows how to handle a pitch in his zone.

Lamb also doesn’t figure to be a huge batting average guy. Through 999 at-bats Lamb has hit .251. He walked a bit more as his rate went from 9.2 to 10.8 percent. Not substantial, but nice to see some growth. So even though his K-rate went up ever so slightly to 25.9 percent, his 0.42 BB/K ratio was still a three year best and ever so slightly over the league average of 0.40. I also mentioned the struggles against lefties that are killing him. Moreover, he owns some league average numbers in BABIP (.312) and line drive rate (19.2 percent) for his career. Nothing exiting there at all.

One final data point to keep in mind. In his young career Lamb has shown a disparity between his home and road work.

*ISO – Isolated Power

Something to keep in mind, especially if Lamb is facing a lefty on the road where he should be nowhere near your lineup.

A final note. Lamb is a much better fantasy option in leagues that allow you to set your lineup on a daily basis. That way you can remove him from your lineup on the days that the D’backs are facing a lefty, or if he’s in a park that doesn’t favor hitters.

PLAYING TIME

Lamb will be playing daily, though as I’ve pointed out in detail above, he probably shouldn’t be out there against lefties (especially high level ones).  

CONCLUSION

I don’t think Lamb is a top-10 third base option in 2017. Moreover, I don’ think he’s a top-15 option. In fact, he’s hard pressed to be a top-20 third base option on draft day. Solid skills, but that massive left-handed hole cannot be ignored – for now.

10-Team Mixed: He’s not a starter here. Don’t draft him as such.

12-Team Mixed: He’s a corner infield option in this setup. No speed, no batting average, potentially losing some playing time.

15-Team Mixed: OK, I’ll buy here. Ideally, he’s a corner infield option that you only use against righties.

NL-Only League: A starting option, zero question. I don’t see much growth though (duh) so be careful not to overspend as many will want to do on a player they believe to be emerging.

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Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray on the channel Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).