The Closers Conundrum

Closers come from out of nowhere each season as there is massive turnover at the position. That is why I wrote "Never Draft a Closer Early." That article talked about the idea of drafting closers early and why it likely makes little sense to do so in most instances. This article will focus on the question of whether or not saves only come from upper division clubs since many folks assume that the only teams that produce saves are those that win 85+ games each year. Some thoughts on why this position is a bit inaccurate, or at least shallow, follow.

We often think in absolutes. Black/white, good/bad, hot/cold. It’s just how we operate. It’s easy. Sometimes that line of thought is out of convenience. Sometimes it’s out of laziness. And sometimes, it’s because we just think it to be so and are in no need of further application of grey matter. That last one is where we’re at with the closer conundrum. It’s seems entirely logical to think that saves come from winning teams. The more games a team wins, the more likely it is that there will be more save chances since you can only pick up a save in a victory (I swear I have a borderline genius IQ, even after that last sentence). However...

Is it logical to think that a “winning team” will play close games or is their team so good they will win many games by more than three runs which precludes a save chance from even being available? What if the offense of the club is banging and they simply crush their opponents’ pitching, leading to many 4/5/6-run wins? What if the offense is merely solid but the pitchers are continually allowing two runs to an opponent? Will that save situation arise in those instances if the other team isn’t scoring any runs? Remember, context matters and it’s a very volatile thing from game to game.

If a team is a “winning team” is it because they have one closer? Why couldn’t they have two, three or four guys picking up saves? You don’t have to have just one fella working the ninth inning to have success.

If a team is a “winning team” is it more likely that they have a good bullpen with many options to close out an opponent versus a “losing team” that might only have a couple of trustworthy options late in a game? Let me ask you a question directly. If you were the manager of a sucky team, and you were up 4-2 heading into the ninth inning, wouldn’t you call on your best reliever to get those last three outs to secure a win that doesn’t come very often? If you’re team wins all the time, maybe you play matchups more? Maybe you rest guys more? Exactly.

Here’s a table you can find in Never Draft a Closer Early.

The average team, over the past three years, produces 42.5 saves. You might still be thinking they come from upper division clubs. Does the data actually support that line of thought?

Well...

Last season, the Cubs led baseball with 103 victories, eight more than anyone else. Do you know how many saves they had? Try 38. That’s right, the Cubs had 4.5 fewer saves than the average team over the last three seasons even though they won a rather impressive total of 103 ballgames. The Indians, the other team in the World Series in 2016, won 94 games. Did they reach that magic level of 42.5 saves? Nope. The Indians saved a total of 37 games last season. In fact, of the six teams that won 90 games last season...

The Cubs and Indians failed to reach the league average save total.

The Red Sox had half a save more.

The Rangers, Nationals and Dodgers all had more than the average club.

All told, the six teams that won 90-games last season averaged 44.5 saves, just two more than the league average.

What about the losing clubs? Did the teams that failed to win games last season also fail to produce saves?

There were eight teams that lost at least 90-games last season.

Of the eight teams, only one reached the league average, though two clubs were half a save off. The Twins and Reds had terrible bullpen efforts which we lamented all season long. Let’s look at the other clubs. The Padres still had 30 saves from Fernando Rodney and Brandon Maurer. In fact, that duo had all but five saves for the club. Both men could have been had off waivers. The Braves had a 20-save man in Jim Johnson and 10 from Arodys Vizcaino. Both men were likely on waivers after Draft Day (Johnson for sure). The Diamondbacks’ saves leader was Brad Ziegler who would have had more if he wasn’t traded to the Red Sox where he served as a set-up man.

This brings up another point to consider. Even if we say (and I’m not ready to do this just yet) there are fewer saves on the lower-division clubs, we have to consider a few points. (1) Of all the names I just listed, how many were on waivers after the draft? I’d posit all but Ziegler. Point being, there was very low interest associated with any of them, so they were all attainable at a very low price. (2) We’re still looking at guys with 15+ saves and even 20 saves. Note that Ziegler did save 22 games, four with the Red Sox, so you still got paid for your investment in the sidewinder.

Let’s take a look back to 2015. The Blue Jays won 93 games but saved only 34. The Phillies won a league worst 63 games in 2015 and they still saved 35 games.

In 2014 the Athletics won 88 games with 31 saves. The Diamondbacks won 64 games, worst in the league, and still saved 35 games.

The truth is that saves come everywhere.

The second truth is that we never really know which teams are going to excel in the win column, adding another level of uncertainty with saves. Think of it. Check out the win-loss record change for teams from 2015 to 2016.

Some of the best teams in 2015 didn’t win nearly as much as we thought they would in 2016. Realize too that no one expected Seung-Hwan Oh to lead the Cardinals with 19 saves. We all expected Trevor Rosenthal to lead the team in saves (he had 14). Mark Melancon had 51 saves for the Pirates in 2015. He racked up only 30 saves for them in 2016 before being traded to the Nationals because the Pirates fell out of the playoff race and tried to build for the future (he had 17 with the Nationals). Wade Davis was the most dominating righty arm in baseball in 2014-15 and entered 2016 as the clear stud in the Royals bullpen. He led the team in saves but with just 27. Why? Because arm woes limited him to just 45 outings. Twelve saves went to Kelvin Herrera who filled a support role, so even though the “closer” got 39 saves for the Royals that total was spread over two arms.

That’s my final point here. You just never know who will be hurt, when, or for how long. Even if you roster the right guy on the right team, injuries can kill that plan, stop it dead, even if you made the right decision.

Targeting closers on “winning teams” isn’t the be-all, end-all. It helps a bit. I will give you that. But the belief that you have to put together your relief arms based solely on projected team wins seems extremely flawed to this pundit.