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I say it every season -- we spend waaaaaaayy too much time worrying about the first round. It is nowhere close to a lock that your first-round selection will perform like a first-round selection. In fact, the data says exactly the opposite. So why, each and every season, do we perseverate on what to do in the first round? Because we think it matters.
We think there must be some advantage to taking Player A over Player B. There has to be a better player to take than the one others believe. We even think it matters as to what pick we have in the first round. How many times have I been asked, “Hey Ray, if given the choice, which pick would you choose in Round 1?” I’m not saying that I don’t prefer certain players. It would be stupid for me to suggest I didn’t have a preference, but I’m not going to feel like my draft is lost if I don’t get the guy I want in the first round, and neither should you. Why? History tells us we stink at predicting who will produce, and that means all the consternation about your first-round selection is giving you ulcers for no reason.
I hope the folks over at Baseball HQ consider me a friend, because the following statement comes from them: According to research, since the 2004 season, the odds of a player with a top-15 ADP producing an actual top-15 season is 35.5-percent. That’s barely one out of three. Let me say that again. You, me, Jim, Jennifer... we all have roughly a 1-in-3 chance of our top-15 pick producing a top-15 season. It’s just a fact. Over more than a decade of data tells us that. So again, I ask you, why do you worry so much about your first-round selection when it’s clear you only have about a 1/3 chance to emerge with first-round production from your first-round selection?
Let’s look back at ADP data from the NFBC from 2016. Here are the top-15 players according to that data:
Players in green were hits as top-15 performers at the conclusion of the 2016 season.
Player | ADP |
1.62 | |
2.32 | |
2.81 | |
3.91 | |
5.78 | |
7.85 | |
8.04 | |
6.84 | |
9.96 | |
10.12 | |
11.72 | |
12.81 | |
13.16 | |
14.18 | |
14.98 |
Last year there were seven hits, or 46.7-percent, in the top-15. Historically speaking, that’s a huge return of success and it was still less than 50 percent. Even last year, when we blew past the historical average, we still “hit” on less than half the players we predicted were worth a first-round selection.
Even if I get the guy I want in the first round, I’m realistic with my understanding of how this thing works, which is, in most instances, it doesn’t. A few data points for you to consider before you pull your remaining hair out, worrying about that first selection on draft day.
1 – You will spend far too much time, thought and consternation trying to decide who to take in the first round.
2 – It really doesn’t matter whether you get Player A or B. At least it doesn’t, historically speaking.
3 – Multiple players taken in the first round will bomb in 2017.
4 – No one knows which first-round players will bomb in 2017.
5 – You will look back at the end of the season and say to yourself, “Why did I take that guy in the first round?”
6 – First-round picks fail every year. Wait, I already wrote that.
7 – Historically speaking, your odds of “hitting” on the first-round selection are about the same as producing a hit would be to the Major League batting average leader.
8 – We stink at predicting who will produce first-round value.
9 – The only thing you really need to make sure you do in the first round is avoid making a mistake. Mistakes would include (A) taking an injury-prone player, (B) taking an unproven player, (C) choosing a pitcher, (D) reaching on a player. There are times and places where A, B, C and D are great moves. That place is not the first round.
I would ask you to pay special attention to point #9. We know that we cannot predict who will be a top-15 player with a high degree of certainty. Again, more than a decade of data tells us that. Therefore, we have to do everything we can to remove the players who are ‘most likely to fail.’ I humbly suggest you read points A-through-D again. Those are four key points you should sear into your noggin to help you avoid the players who would place you at great risk of being one of the two-thirds of folks who will end up being disappointed.
As for the pitcher thing... make sure to read Never Draft A Starting Pitcher Early to see why, even though Kershaw and Scherzer succeeded last year, that the odds of your team benefitting from spending an early selection on pitching is pretty low.
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