2016 MLB Player Profile: A.J. Griffin

A.J. Griffin is a 28 year old right handed pitcher. He stands 6’5”, weighs in at about 230 lbs, and as you can tell from the photo that accompanies this piece he also owns a horrendous haircut (need to know information). He had an impressive season for the Athletics in 2013 winning 14 games while throwing 200-innings, but then he disappeared. He began the 2014 season with flexor tendinitis in his elbow, but soon it was announced that he would need surgery of the Tommy John variety (he had it in late April, 2014). There was hope that Griffin would pitch last season in the bigs, but it never happened. He tossed four minor league games but never go the call up. He was eventually released, actually designated for assignment, before signing a minor league deal with the Rangers.

Off to a hot start in 2016, is he someone you can trust in 2016?

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

THE STRIKEOUT

Griffin has a 8.8 K/9 mark as a minor leaguer.

Griffin has a 7.5 K/9 mark as a major leaguer.

Griffin has a 7.55 K/9 mark in 2016.

He is also the owner of an 8.6 percent swinging strike rate for his career. The mark is 8.3 percent this season.

Batters have a contact rate (contact on all pitches swing at) of 80.6 percent for his career. The mark this season is 80.3 percent.

Pretty obvious what we have with Griffin in the strikeout category.

THE WALK

Griffin walked 1.7 batters per nine as a minor leaguer. 

Griffin has a 2.41 BB/9 mark as a big leaguer. The mark is a bit elevated this season at a worse than league average 3.19 per nine. Griffin has a first pitch strike rate this season of 59.0 percent, a mark that is 1.2 percent below his career rate. He’s also thrown 55.4 percent of his pitches inside the strike zone, five percent above his career rate. The walk rate seems likely to dip a bit as the innings pile up.

THE RATIOS

The guy has a rockstar WHIP of 1.11 for his career. In each of this three seasons the mark has been 1.13 or lower. The mark is at its lowest this year, 1.00, and it’s likely the number will go up. That is especially true if he continues to walk batters at a league average rate. In fact, it’s rather odd that he’s been able to keep his WHIP as low as it has been when (A) he doesn’t have the stuff to dominate hitters and (B) he doesn’t own an elite walk rate.

THE BATTED BALL

Griffin has a .246 BABIP for his career, a mark he has bettered substantially this season at .217.

The league average is .290-.300 mind you.

Can pitchers better the league average consistently? The answer to that question is obviously yes.

Is Griffin one of those guys?

The last two seasons do you know how many pitchers bettered the .246 career mark Griffin has? I used two years by the way because Griffin has thrown 313.1 innings, roughly what is need to qualify for the ERA title over two years (162 innings times two equals 324 innings). So, how many hurlers who have thrown at least 324 innings the last two seasons can better the .246 mark that Griffin owns? The answer is one – Marco Estrada. How many hurlers bettered the mark of .246 in 2015? The answer is two – Estrada at .216 and Zack Greinke at .229 (Jake Arrieta matched the mark at .246). Hell, even the great Clayton Kershaw never posted a single season mark as low as .246 (his career best rate is .251). All of that makes me very nervous that Griffin will be able to maintain his current rate.

Griffin owns a 19.8 percent line drive rate for his career, a league average mark.

Now comes the concerning part.

A.J. gives up an elevated 46 percent fly ball rate which isn’t a great thing for a guy who allows a slightly elevated 11.4 percent HR/FB ratio (he is the owner of a mere 0.74 GB/FB ratio for his career). The result is an elevated 1.38 HR/9 ratio for his career. This season the mark is a 0.58 as his HR/FB ratio sits at a mere 5.6 percent. The homers will start to come, especially in a home ballpark that favors offense versus the even ball yard he used to pitch his home games at in Oakland. Just think. Though he is the owner of a 2.32 ERA as of this writing that his xFIP, which normalizes for factors such as the home run, currently sits at 4.23.

WORKLOAD

Griffin is off to a great start, and he’s had lots of success at the major league level. Still, you should be concerned that in 2014-15 he threw a total of 14.1 innings. Just how many innings will he be allowed to, or able to, throw this season?

OUTLOOK

10-team Mixed: You can ride him while he is hot but the skills don’t stand out. Beware the looming regression. Will it come slowly or quickly? I wouldn’t bother in a format this size.

12-team Mixed: Nothing really wrong with him as your last starting pitcher here, but there is not much to get excited about either. The strikeouts and walks are pretty league average stuff, and I discussed how his home run rate will soon increase. Also, his ability to keep his BABIP consistently in elite territory throws another concern into the mix.

15-team Mixed: Not someone to target in a deal. Not someone to count on if you already own him. Ratios will be there, and there’s enough strikeout work here for Griffin to remain relevant, if not overly successful.

AL-Only: He cost you nothing here, so ride him for all he is worth. A.J.’s ratios don’t figure to harm you at all, and it certainly appears likely that he has ingratiated himself with the Rangers to the point that he won’t likely lose his spot in the starting rotation any time soon - at least until Yu Darvish returns and then the querstion is an open ended one.   

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).