Fantasy Baseball Daily Trends: May 3, 2016

EXIT VELOCITY FOR BATTERS

*The following data is from Baseball Savant and MLB.com.

Let’s be very simplistic here.

The harder you hit the baseball the more likely you are to get a base hit.

Pretty straight forward, right?

Sometimes we talk about BABIP and extoll batters as “lucky” or “unlucky” though those terms are very obtuse.

Sometimes a fella rips a liner and it ends up in a defenders glove. Just happens. But over the course of the season if you hit the ball hard, consistently, you give yourself the best chance to succeed.

Here is what exit velocity represents, taken directly from the MLB.com site.

Exit Velocity is defined as the speed of a baseball after it is hit by a batter. This includes all Batted Ball Events -- outs, hits and errors.

Let’s start out by simply listing the top -20 performers in terms of the average exit velocity off the bat.

Pretty surprising to see Santana at the top of the list. That is until you realize he also owns a 31.6 percent line drive rate which is sixth best in baseball. He is hitting the ball hard which has also helped lead to a .352 BABIP.

For those folks that think Miggy is washed up his third overall exit velocity mark would suggest otherwise. Over his last 32 plate appearances he’s batting .387 with a .406 OBP and 774 SLG.

Zimmerman is hitting just .234, but this mark suggests that better times might lay ahead. It’s always about health with Ryan – when he has it he succeeds. Zimmerman also hits 4^th behind Bryce Harper which means he will always be coming up with men on base.

Yelich… well the breakout was predicted.

Markakis has had a great start to the season. Not only is he crushing the ball but he’s also walking at his best rate since 2008 (13.6 percent) and his .355 BABIP is rocking too. He’s still not lifting the ball though without a homer, and that does ding his value.

Tomas is hitting the ball hard which is great news after his disastrous 2015 campaign. He isn’t hitting any more line drives than last season, his 21.9 percent mark is exactly the same both campaigns, and he’s also hitting fly balls at a rate that is about eight percent higher than last season. Still not that easy to be a big home run hitter if you only have a 31.5 percent HR/FB ratio.

Freese is about to start losing playing time with the return of Jung-Ho Kang, but he’s performed extremely well for the Pirates hitting .292 with a .382 OBP. Not driving the ball though, despite the high exit velocity, with a .104 Isolated Power mark and .396 SLG.

Hardy is on the DL for about six weeks (Daily Trends), and given his overall lack of offensive success I have to admit to being a bit taken back by his impressive exit velocity.

Diaz has an obnoxious .388 BABIP that is coming down by the day. He’s also somehow blasted five homers leading to a .325 Isolated Power mark (the league average is .140). He’s stunned the baseball world, and obviously is hitting the ball very hard. Can’t see it continuing though, not with this pedigree.

Conforto is sporting a 1.025 OPS through 23 games. He’s exceeded even the top end expectations with an excellent start that has led to a .432 wOBA. His exit velocity is helped out a bit by pulling the ball 45 percent of the time.

Moustakas is hitting the ball hard. Often. He’s already blasted seven homers. There’s no way that pace continues though. Moose has a 21.2 percent HR/FB rate that is more than double his career average (last season was his best at 11.2 percent). He’s also batting .258 which, given his .248 career mark, throws last year’s .284 mark into question as a target for this season.

Let’s talk hard grounders for a moment. Here’s the top-10

Werth is batting a mere .203 this season but no one is hitting grounders harder. If that continues it is certain his .226 BABIP will rise dramatically.

Grichuk, who I broke down yesterday in this Daily Trends piece, is tearing it up when the ball is kept down. His ground ball rate though is 2.8 percent lower than last season, the fly ball rate is up to 52.6 percent, and that is one of the reason that his average is just .200. At least the hard hit grounder rate suggests not all hope is lost.

Garcia has quietly hit .283 for the Braves. He only has one homer, no steals and just seven RBI though, so it’s been a rather mediocre start. He’s hit 52.1 percent of his balls on the ground leading to a .347 BABIP. At least he’s playing into his talents.

Betts isn’t walking, five in 25 games, and is striking out a bit too much (22 in 25 games). He’s been wildly successful overall – four homers, six steals, 17 RBI and 20 runs – but his average is sitting at just .263.

Here is some audio talking about exit velocity thanks to SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio.

Tomorrow I will take a look at hurlers and exit velocity.

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: David Ross has a hit in 4-straight games and over his last 26 plate appearances his slash line sparkles (.300/.375/.600). Righties are batting .304/.354/.535 against Jonathon Niese this season.

FIRST BASE: Joe Mauer gets on base every game. Just check out his .452 OBP which is epic. He faces Colin McHugh who he’s gone 3-for-6 against, and speaking of McHugh, he’s been obliterated by lefties this season (.392/.429/.589).

SECOND BASE: DJ LeMahieu has gone 5-for-12 against Andrew Cashner in his career. Cashner has also been blasted by righties this season to the tune of a .340/.426/.545 line.

THIRD BASE: Daniel Murphy has a hit in 8-of-9 games. That effort includes an RBI in 4-straight games and four outings of at least two hits. Lefties are hitting Chris Young hard in the early going with a .286/.388/.490 line against him.

SHORTSTOP: Martin Perez has only nine strikeouts in 94 batters against righties this season. He’s also allowed a .282 batting average and .380 OBP to right-handers. Take a shot on Troy Tulowitzki tonight who should be shielded from strikeouts in the matchup.

OUTFIELD: Matt Joyce has a killer line against righties this season (.370/.500/.741). He also has four hits in his last six at-bats while driving in three runs. Interestingly, he’s also hit Jake Arrieta well going 7-for-14 with a homer. He’s batting cleanup as well.

OUTFIELD: Billy Hamilton has a hit in 6-of-7 games. He’s also scored five times in that timeframe while stealing three bases. He faces Jeff Samardzija who he’s also produced five hits in 10 at-bats against, and now Hamilton is leading off.

OUTFIELD: Over his last 10 games Josh Reddick is batting .317 with a homer and two steals. He’s also hit .333 in 21 at-bats against Hisashi Iwakuma who has struggled this season including allowing four homers his last three outings.

DAILY DOSE

Check out my videos each day. Here is one about Salvador Perez, Colby Rasmus and Jonathan Villar in the Daliy Dive.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).