Luis Severino is a 22 year old who was born in the Dominican Republic. Standing 6’2”, and weighing in at about 210 lbs, the righty has a heavy fastball that allowed him to shred the minor league competition. He had immediate success last year with the Yankees, and though he’s had a hiccup early this season there are still plenty of reasons to like the arm of the righty of the Yankees.
THE MINOR LEAGUE NUMBERS
Entering last season Severino was ranked as the 35th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. He was ranked 51st at Baseball Prospectus and 23rd at MLB.com.
| LEVEL | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | IP |
2012 | DOSL | 4-2 | 1.68 | 0.98 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 64.1 |
2013 | Rookie, A | 4-2 | 2.45 | 1.07 | 10.8 | 2.0 | 44.0 |
2014 | A, High-A, AA | 6-5 | 2.47 | 1.06 | 10.1 | 2.2 | 113.0 |
2015 | AA, AAA | 9-2 | 2.45 | 1.00 | 8.9 | 2.4 | 99.1 |
Career |
| 23-11 | 2.30 | 1.03 | 9.1 | 2.3 | 320.2 |
*DOSL – Dominican Summer League
Those are some utterly dominating numbers.
THE MAJOR LEAGUE NUMBERS
| W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | IP |
2015 | 5-3 | 3.03 | 1.20 | 8.09 | 3.18 | 62.1 |
2016 | 0-3 | 6.86 | 1.78 | 5.49 | 1.37 | 19.2 |
Career | 5-6 | 3.84 | 1.34 | 7.46 | 2.74 | 82.0 |
THE SKILLS
Let’s talk about his fastball. Over the course of his 15 big league starts Severino has thrown his fastball an average of 95.3 mph according to PITCHf/x. Since the start of the season, amongst guys who have thrown 15 innings, Severino is 6th in baseball with a 95.6 mph mark on his fastball.
At this point of his big league career, here’s how things have gone with the fastball.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP | wOBA |
2015-16 | .277 | .324 | .491 | .316 | .350 |
Let’s talk about his slider. PITCHf/x shows his slider this season to be coming in at 89.6 mph, six tenths more than last season. Since the start of the season, amongst guys who have thrown 15 innings, Severino is 2nd in baseball with a 89.6 mph mark on his slider. The only man who has thrown his slider harder is Noah Syndergaard, and I wrote about the dangers of that Tuesday.
At this point of his big league career, here’s how things have gone with the slider.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP | wOBA |
2015-16 | .283 | .339 | .415 | .318 | .332 |
The point is that Severino throws hard, and his fastball/slider combo, in terms of velocity, has only been bettered by one man in baseball – Syndergaard. If that was the only data point you had with Severino, how could you not be excited?
Severino has also been able to effectively spot his changeup which he doesn’t throw frequently (13 percent of the time).
| AVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP | wOBA |
2015-16 | .200 | .273 | .225 | .276 | .231 |
Let’s talk the batted ball.
For his career Severino has a .311 BABIP. That’s right in the normal range. This year the mark is .417. It will drop as the innings pile up, likely back down to his career level with enough frames. I mean, come on. 
After posting a 20.0 percent line drive rate, a league average mark as a rookie, that mark has soared to 33.8 percent after the beating he took in his last outing. That ain’t gonna continue. #SampleSizeFunnyBusiness
The guy, on the plus side, doesn’t give up fly balls. Last year the fly ball rate was 29.2 percent, and this year it’s even lower at 14.9 percent giving Severino a career mark of 25.3 percent. That’s so low it’s hard to completely buy into it, but if he can maintain that, wow. Note that he’s allowed 1.21 homers per nine innings at this point of his career. How can that possibly continue if he never gives up the fly ball? There’s little reason to believe that his 17.5 percent HR/FB ratio will continue unabated. I base that on the league average of 10 percent, and the fact that during his minor league career his HR/FB ratio was about five percent.
Let’s talk grounders. Last year his ground ball rate was 50.3 percent. This year the mark is 51.4 percent. That leaves him with a career mark of 50.6 percent. That’s an excellent mark that was attained by only 21 men who qualified for the ERA title last season. Those grounders are key when you consider that he pitches in a home park that can lead to a few big flies.
Severino struck out more than a batter per inning as a minor leaguer. As a rookie with the Yankees he posted a strong 8.09 mark. This season the mark has plummeted down to 5.49 per nine. There nothing in his background to suggest that the mark shouldn’t increase, significantly, as the season moves forward. Note that his current swinging strike rate is 7.8 percent after a mark of 9.6 percent last season. Keep an eye on this measure.
Severino barely walked two batters per nine innings as a minor leaguer. Though the mark went up to 3.18 batters per nine last season it might surprise you to learn that his walk rate has crashed this season down to 1.37 per nine this season, even with all the struggles. In total he has a 2.74 BB/9 rate that is slightly below the league average. He should be able to sustain his career mark moving forward.
CONCLUSION
I say/write it all the time. I want strikeouts, grounders and no walks. Though the strikeouts are down a bit this season, Severino still profiles exceptionally well in all three of these measures. This is a profile that you want to own. Doesn’t mean things will turn around in his next start, but eventually they will. One would think that he has a relatively long leash with the Yanks, so he should be given a chance to work through this slow start. He’s a really nice talent.
In a 10-team league you can move on. Hard to roster strugglers when there is so much talent available on waivers.
In a 12-team league I would hold if I owned Severino. You can do the Jose Berrios, Sean Manaea, Michael Fulmer route if you want, and if you did that it could certainly work out, but note that Severino is a talent on par with those arms and that he is the only one with big league experience.
In a 15-team league I wouldn’t be a bailing on talent like this. Depends on the particulars of the club, but hold if you can.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.