The Astros have A.J. Reed in the minors, arguably the top first base prospect in baseball.

The Astros have Jon Singleton in the minors. Jon has been a total blaster who has holes no doubt, but he also profiles as a potential 30-homer bat at the big league level (think Chris Carter).

As you likely noted both men will start the year in the minors. So what will the Astros do at first base early in the year? That’s a good question.

On Opening Day on Tuesday because the game was rained out Monday, the Astros will use Marwin Gonzalez at first bat. Marwin is slated to bat 8th. In their second game of the season the Astros will go with Tyler White at first base. And so it begins with the back and forth. Here’s my thoughts the two guys who will likely be sharing time.

Gonzalez is just a guy. He showed some minor pop last season with 12 homers in 344 at-bats, but there’s not much to see in his game. Through 1,121 plate appearances Gonzalez has hit .258 with a .300 OBP and .383 SLG. The numbers were better last season, .279/.317/.442, but those numbers aren’t great, and they aren’t likely to be repeated in their totality either in 2016. He’s just not that impressive with a bat in his hands. He’s also not going to help anyone on the bases with 15 career steals in 29 career attempts, a hideous 52 percent success rate. The real value for Marwin is in league specific setups where his massive positional flexibility is a huge bonus (Gonzalez appeared in 43 games at first last season, 15 at second, 21 at third, 32 at shortstop and 15 in the outfield). That’s as impressive as anyone this side of Brock Holt.

White is the guy that everyone is excited about though, and here’s why.

White is 5’11 and about 225 lbs. The righty swinger owns an impressive slash line in the minors of .311/.422/.489 which includes some over-the-top work at Triple-A last season in 57 games (.362/.467/.559). That’s rock star stuff that includes 174 walks and just 164 strikeouts during nearly 300 minor league games. Things didn’t slow down at all during Spring Training this season as he hit .353 with a .443 OBP and .588 SLG. Yowzah’s. White earned his way onto the team over the likes of Singleton and Reed with that effort.

So what’s not to like with White? He’s really not a home run type of bat. His career best in homers is 15, and that’s likely the top end of what projections should be for him in the bigs. He’s also not very adept defensively, and when I read scouting reports that compare him to Matt Adams I get nervous. The bottom line is that White’s numbers look great. However, his fantasy game doesn’t figure to approximate that effort in any appreciable way. With less than 20 homers pop, no speed on the base paths (four steals in the minors) and nothing more than an average glove at any position on the diamond, he’s ripe for a 4th outfielder, backup corner infield role. He’s not an easily projectable daily starting option on an upper division club.

In the end there are four legitimate options for the Astros at first base: Reed, Singleton, Gonzalez and White. The most talented one is Reed, and you have to think at some point he gets called up and gets the chance to start (no telling how soon that might occur though). The Astros will likely be mixing and matching until Reed gets his shot, so don’t buy fully in to White who really profiles as an AL-only option and not a long-term option in a mixed league.

 

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