2016 MLB Player Profile: Kevin Kiermaier

Kevin Kiermaier is all over the highlight reels for his glove. His bat isn’t seen as often on ESPN. Still, that glove will keep Kiermaier in the lineup on the daily basis for the Rays and with that he’s worth investigating as it pertains to his value in mixed leagues. We know that Colton and the Wolfman are big fans of Kiermaier (see the AL LABR draft), but should you be in mixed leagues?

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

APPROACH

Recall that Kiermaier hit .278 with a .352 OBP over 1,649 minor league at-bats. That’s a nice OBP but the average is just blah.

Over 899 big league plate appearances we’re looking at a .263 hitter with a .305 OBP. Ugh.

Kiermaier has posted identical batting average marks the past two seasons of .263.

Kiermaier has posted identical BABIP marks the past two seasons of .306.

That doesn’t happen, yet there it is.

The problem, of course, is that both numbers (AVG, BABIP) are league average stuff.

Kiermaier has a career 20.5 line drive rate – league average stuff.

Kiermaier has a decent 18.5 percent K-rate with a 9.6 percent swinging strike rate. Again, league average kinda stuff overall.

Kiermaier has walked 47 times in his career leading to a 5.2 percent walk rate. That flat out stinks. He doesn’t walk nearly enough given the weakness with his overall offensive game.

Kiermaier also can’t hit left-handed pitching, or at least he hasn’t to this point. The numbers are really, really bad.

He can’t hit lefties and he can’t get on base against them.

At least Kiermaier does one thing well with a bat in his hands. No matter who is on the hill he keeps the ball on the ground. Kiermaier owns a 49.6 percent ground ball rate for his career which has led to a 1.66 GB/FB ratio. Just right given these skills.

POWER

He really has none.

Kiermaier hit 15 homers in 1,448 minor league at-bats. Obviously, that’s about five homers per 500 at-bats.

The last two seasons he’s hit 10 homers each time. Way better than his minor league rate, but still very boring.

Even though he has a league average HR/FB ratio of 10.2 percent there just aren’t enough balls hit skyward to expect any growth in the home run category. Kiermaier owns a fly ball rate of just 29.8 percent as a big leaguer. Remember the league average is 34-35 percent. He just doesn’t hit the ball in the air.

There is nothing to see here accept to expect more of the same.

SPEED

As a minor leaguer Kiermaier stole 86 bases in 410 games. That would equate to about 31 steals per 150 games. He’s never been close to that in the big leagues

Kiermaier has a 71.9 percent success rate on his 31 steal attempts as a Ray with 23 thefts and nine caught stealing. That’s a passable rate but far from ideal.

Kiermaier stole 18 bases last season. He could do that again in 2016. Still, the guy had a .298 OBP last season and has a .305 career mark. He simply doesn’t get on base enough to really be a significant base stealing threat. That’s the biggest issue with this aspect of his game. Growth will likely have to come from an increase in his success rate because it is unlikely that he’s suddenly going to realize how to get on base.

PLAYING TIME

The Rays have questions in the outfield, but there is no question who will be starting in center field: Kiermaier. The corner outfield situation is a bit messy with Desmond Jennings, Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza in a battle, though the Rays might just simplify things and use Dickerson at DH (for more on Dickerson with the Rays see Dickerson Dealt to Rays).

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Kiermaier excited a bit in 2014 with his work in just 108 games, but unfortunately he showed no growth whatsoever in 2015 other than his wheels being more productive. As much as I want to “see it,” I just don’t with Kiermaier.

10-team Mixed: Can’t see why anyone would bother in this format. He’s a waiver pickup when you need an injury fill-in.

12-team Mixed: If you want to make him a reserve round add here – I guess it’s fine. He’s no better than a 6^th outfielder in this format. He could steal 20 bases. He might score 75 runs since he plays daily. If things all came together he could hit 15 homers OR he could just repeat what he did last season and be very boring.

15-team Mixed: I wouldn’t be looking his way in this format, but it makes sense. Personally, when I check ADP I see guys listed later than Kevin that intrigue me more. As a running theme though – he should play daily, and in a league that’s this deep there is value to that, especially if that guy has the talent to swipe 20 bags.

AL-Only: Playing time is king. Once the elites in the outfield are gone you have to decide how you want to fill out your group. Do you want to take shots on rookies like Max Kepler and Nomar Mazara, or would you prefer to roster vets like Austin Jackson and Kiermaier? Depending on how your roster is constructed, and what the cost is, you could go in either direction. If you take a shot on KK who has the look of a 150 game player, you likely won’t be disappointed, that is unless you expect appreciable growth.

To see where Kiermaier ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).