2016 MLB Player Profile: Pedro Alvarez

Pedro Alvarez reached the big leagues as a third baseman. He wasn’t very good with the glove, but he played the position full-time for the first four years he was in the big leagues. In his fifth season he began the move to first base and he played the position exclusively last season for the Pirates. He’s not very good at that side of the diamond either, so the thought was that he would sign with an American League team this season and try his hand at the designated hitter spot. It took much longer than expected for him to find that spot, but it appears that he has settled on the Baltimore Orioles as his home for the coming season (reports suggest he is due $5.75 million with $1.5 million in performance bonuses). Let’s take a look at how this situation might play itself out.

THE NUMBERS

PLAYING TIME

The Orioles already have two guys to play first base and DH in Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo. What will the Orioles do to get all three power bats in the lineup on a consistent basis?

"[Trumbo has] already spent a lot of time [out there in the outfield]. He was out there with [Wayne Kirby] Kirb today at 8:30 in the morning while we were all having corn flakes," manager Buck Showalter said. "He's been doing that, preparing for all the possibilities. We knew a possible addition might come, and we didn't want to wait until the end.” Certainly sounds like Trumbo will be in the outfield. That position is further supported by the fact that Showalter also said that Chris Davis is the club’s first baseman. The likely scenario has Alvarez ending up as the designated hitter – at least against righties. Let’s play it out. Here’s an estimated lineup for the Orioles based upon what we know today.

C: Matt Wieters
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Jonathan Schoop (Player Profile)
3B: Manny Machado
SS: J.J. Hardy
LF: Hyun-soo Kim
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Mark Trumbo
DH: Pedro Alvarez

That’s one scary powerful lineup, though Trumbo in the outfield certainly isn’t going to aide any of the pitcher’s.

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

APPROACH

It’s not good.

Alvarez is a huge man, something like 6’3” and 250 lbs, and he swings like he wants to hit every pitch into orbit. The result are some massive strikeout totals. Twice in his career Alvarez has hit the 180 strikeout level, and per 550 at-bats he is averaging 178 strikeouts. It’s a massive number. For his career he owns an obviously massive set of numbers in the K-rate column (29.1 percent) and the swinging strike rate (14.1 percent). He’s gonna whiff a ton, just how it is.

Alvarez doesn’t walk much either. For his career he’s never reached 60 walks in a season. The last three seasons he hasn’t even reached 50 walks. His walk rate of 9.3 percent ain’t bad, and truth be told he likely would be way above the raw numbers I listed in the walk rate if he played daily (the last two seasons he’s hasn’t hit 500 plate appearances). The resulting 0.32 BB/K ratio is passable, though it is slightly below the league average of about 0.39 percent. At least Alvarez has posted the two best marks of his career the past two seasons (0.40 and 0.37). At least.

Alvarez owns an 18.4 percent line drive rate. It’s not on the league mark which is 20 percent, and his .292 career BABIP is also similarly boring. Moreover, his BABIP has been in the .270’s in 3-straight seasons so it’s not like we’re going to be seeing any growth here baring a minor miracle.

Alvarez, and I will discuss this in more detail below, also isn’t big fly ball hitter with a 34.1 percent career mark. I bring that up, his league average fly ball rate, as it technically should help his batting average a bit. Not that it really will though. Of course, fly balls are less likely to be base hits than line drives or ground balls so that should help buoy things a bit for Alvarez. Really doesn’t though.

His career batting average is .236. His career on-base percentage is .309. The league average for his career, since 2010, is .256 and .320. He ain’t even average and isn’t likely to be anything other than average in a best case scenario.

POWER

As I mentioned above, Alvarez is one of those sluggers that owns a career fly ball rate that is league average. Probably surprises folks to read that given his size, his swing and his monster power. A note before moving on to HR/FB. Since 2010, amongst the 144 batters who have racked up 2,500 plate appearances, Alvarez is 93^rd in fly ball rate (34.1 percent). Ninety-third. No fly balls here.

What that means it that Alvarez has to be living off his HR/FB rate because he simply doesn’t hit the ball in the air enough.

So what is his HR/FB ratio? For his career the mark is 22.5 percent. That mark is huge and since 2010, amongst those 144 batters with 2,500 plate appearances, he’s third in baseball behind only Giancarlo Stanton (25.9) and Chris Davis (24.8). Alvarez is an elite transitioner (is that a word?) of the fly ball into the home run. In three of the last four seasons the HR/FB rate was over 25 percent, and last season the mark was 32.5 percent which was the best in baseball for any player with 400 plate appearances. Understand that it’s nearly impossible for a guy to repeat a number over 30 percent so what I’m saying is that in order for Alvarez to record 27 homers, his total of last season, or more, he’s going to have to see an increase in at-bats because his HR/FB ratio will almost certainly slide in 2016.

That said, as you can see from the homer chart from last season, if he had played all his games in Baltimore last season every ball he hit over the fence last year would have been a homer.

SPLITS

Alvarez has another issue to be made aware of. He can’t hit lefties. For his career, and he’s been shielded from them for a good deal of the time, Alvarez has 623 career plate appearances. Here are the results.

Career vs. lefties: .203/.270/.332

He’s hit 17 homers as well over 567 at-bats.

He can’t hit lefties, and he shouldn’t be in the lineup when a lefty is on the hill. That severely limits the outlook of Alvarez, especially for those of you that live in the world of weekly lineup leagues. If you can’t change your lineup on a daily basis you have to spend Sunday night checking the matchups for the Orioles closely. If they are set to face a couple of lefties in the coming week it’s likely going to be wise for you to send Pedro to your bench.  

Have you picked up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide yet? The Guide includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

10-team Mixed: With his inability to hit lefties, his qualification at only first base, and his batting average risk, not to mention his nothing in steals, Alvarez is not a player I would be drafting in a league this small.

12-team Mixed: Only take a shot here on Alvarez under the following scenario. (1) You’re not reaching. (2) You’re batting average is covered. (3) You’re only need is power. (4) You can change your roster on a daily basis.

15-team Mixed: Can take a shot here as the league is getting pretty deep so rostering him as a corner infielder for the power bat works. The average pitfalls don’t hurt as much, and power is hard to find late, and you cannot argue that his ballpark and lineup won’t be a plus for a guy who has been with the Pirates for the previous six years.

AL-Only: If Alvarez grabs 425 at-bats, totally doable I would think, he’s gonna hit 20+ homers. That’s a nice add in AL-only leagues. Of course, as a first baseman who is now with the Orioles, you’re going to have to pay a pretty penny in many a league in order to roster his flawed power bat.

To see where Alvarez ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).