2016 MLB Player Profile: Marco Estrada

Marco Estrada doesn’t have dominating stuff. He’s not physically imposing. He’s not a fantasy star. He also had a strong kick to the finish line last season, is routinely a solid option in WHIP, and isn’t an overly expensive piece to add on draft day. So what do we do with the soon to be 33 year old righty (July 5^th) who most expect to take a step back from last season?

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

*Per 162 games: 9-8, 3.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 151 Ks over 171 innings

THE WHIP

Last season Marco Estrada posted a 1.04 WHIP. Were you aware that his 1.04 WHIP was the second best mark in the American League behind only Dallas Keuchel’s 1.02? Moreover, Estrada’s 1.04 WHIP was 9^th in baseball last season. That’s elite.

After a rough start his first three seasons in the WHIP category things stabilized for Estrada in a major way. In each of the last five seasons his WHIP has been 1.21 or lower. In 2-of-3 seasons Estrada has posted a WHIP below 1.09. Impressive. Further, amongst pitchers who have thrown 450-innings the past three seasons Estrada’s 1.11 WHIP is 13^th in baseball. It’s a better mark than Corey Kluber (1.12), Sonny Gray (1.13) and Gerrit Cole (1.15) amongst others.

Estrada has been an elite WHIP option the past three years.

THE ERA

Estrada owns a 3.95 ERA for his career. The league average since he began his career is 3.93. That’s league average time with Estrada, duh. But, it might be a little worse. Yes, he posted a 3.13 ERA last year. That doesn’t mean he is a 3.13 type of hurler though. Marco also posted a 4.36 ERA in 2014 and a 3.87 mark in 2013. Only once in his career has he posted a mark under 3.64. Once. Be careful.

Let’s look at SIERA and xFIP. You won’t like what you see there.

Though Estrada posted a 3.13 ERA last season both SIERA and xFIP strongly suggest, OK they outright say it, that Estrada didn’t earn the ERA mark he posted last season. In fact, his SIERA and xFIP, in the season he posted the best ERA of his career mind you, were career worsts. SIERA and xFIP point to Estrada as a fraud, as a man who should have posted an ERA that was a run and a half higher than it actually was last season.

Oh yeah, one other thing. Estrada owns a 73.1 percent left on base percentage mark in his career. Last season the mark was sky-high at 79.2 percent that was the 10^th best mark in baseball. He will not be repeating that.

Be cautious.

THE STRIKEOUT

Estrada has thrown at least 125 innings four times, each of the last four years actually. Let’s take a look at his K/9 rate over those four years. This is shocking, and it ain’t good.

2012: 9.30 K/9
2013: 8.30 K/9
2014: 7.59 K/9
2015: 6.51 K/9

Take a good, long, hard look at that. In each of the last three seasons he’s basically lost a full batter per nine on his strikeout rate each year. He went from posting an elite mark in 2012 down to a below league average mark in 2015. That’s embarrassing.

Check out his swinging strike rate. After posting an 11.0 mark in 2013 it fell down to 10.7 in 2014 and 9.9 percent in 2015.

Those two measures paint to Estrada as a failing strikeout arm.

THE WALK

Estrada has walked 2.51 batters per nine over the course of his career. That’s a solid mark. After posting back-to-back seasons under 2.05 in 2012 and 2013 though, the number the last two seasons has been above his career mark at 2.63 and 2.73. His walk rate is climbing. In 2015 he posted a 57.8 percent first pitch strike rate. That was the first time in four seasons that the mark was under 60 percent. Obviously falling behind batters portends struggles.

THE BATTED BALL

Marco Estrada has held batters to a .233 batting average over 722 innings. From 2012-14 his best mark was .229. Somehow last season the mark dipped to .203. He ain’t going to hold on to that.

Estrada, obviously, is a rather impressive arm in terms of keeping the base hits down. However, let’s take a look at his BABIP marks. The last four seasons the mark has been .298, .262, .257 and .216. The .216 mark he posted last season was the best in baseball. He won’t be repeating that. His career mark is .261 by the way.

THE HOMER

Estrada allows a ton of fly balls. For his career Marco owns a 47.5 percent fly ball rate. The last two years the mark has been even higher at 49.5 and 52.3 percent. Only one pitcher in baseball allowed more fly balls last season as a percentage (Hector Santiago 53.6 percent). It’s a scary total actually. Not only is Estrada a massive fly ball arm, he throws his home games in a ballpark in Toronto that certainly favors offense (it was 15^th in 2015 and 3^rd in 2014 in Park Factors in the homer category).

The only reason that Estrada didn’t see an explosion in his ERA last season, and his homer total, is that his HR/FB ratio took a big time dip in 2015. For his career Estrada owns an 11.1 percent HR/FB ratio. From 2010-14 the mar was at least 10.3 percent each season. Last year the HR/FB ratio of Estrada was just 8.7 percent. It’s extremely likely the rate will increase back up his career average in 2016.

THE WORKLOAD

Estrada has never thrown 185-innings as a big leaguer.

Estrada has only one season with 155-innings pitched. Another way to say it… Estrada has only one season in which he’s thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.

He’s not yet proven capable of piling up innings.  
 

Make sure to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Estrada really does just one thing well – he limits hits which leads to often impressive WHIP marks. Other than that though there is a ton of uncertainty, so much so that in most instances it’s likely going to be better if you let another draft Estrada.

10-team Mixed: Estrada doesn’t have a track record of big innings. Estrada doesn’t have a track record of posting a solid ERA. Estrada has a K-rate that is in plummet mode. No need to draft him here.

12-team Mixed: Not interested in Estrada at this level either. Too many concerns such as near certain rises in ERA, WHIP, HR/FB and BABIP.

15-team Mixed: As the last starter on your staff he’s not bad at all. At the same time, spot starting him, or using him as an injury fill-in, is likely the best way to deploy the righty, despite that 3.13 ERA from last season.

AL-Only: The WHIP isn’t bad at all so tossing a bid or a selection Estrada’s way is OK. Remember everything you’ve read above though. Realize it’s a near certainty that his ERA will go up significantly, his strikeout rate is under the league average the last two seasons, and he’s far from a proven innings eater.

To see where Estrada ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).