2016 MLB Player Profile: Jered Weaver

Jered Weaver is a goofy, 33 year old righty that stands 6’7” and weighs in at about 210 lbs. He’s a bit of a sidewinder who used to strike a lot of fellas out. He lost some miles per hour off his heater and it’s now to the point that he’s a pretty despicable option in the strikeout column. Let’s investigate what he has to offer as we attempt to decide if he has any value outside of AL-only leagues.

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

* Per 162 games: 16-9, 3.40 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 175 Ks over 216 innings

THE VELOCITY

There’s no need to run from it, so let’s hit if first, and head on.

Weaver has lost velocity, a lot of it.

Here’s the PITCHf/x data.

Here’s the ugly chart dealing with his fastball speed.

Weaver never threw hard, and now he’s a veritable soft-tosser. How did he have success in the strikeout column in the past? It was never about velocity with Weaver as it’s always been about deception. He hides the ball very well and throws across his body. Check it out.

Weaver has also lost four mph from his cutter over the last four seasons (from 87.7 to 83.3 mph) while his slider speed is down five mph (81.1 to 76.3 mph).

Can’t run away from that.

THE STRIKEOUT

Weaver had back-to-back seasons of 233 and 198 strikeouts in 2010-11. He’s not that guy anymore with a 4-year high of 169 since. Moreover, the K-rate has plummeted from 9.35 per nine in 2010 down to 7.13 in 2014. That’s almost a league average mark and would totally play. Unfortunately, Weaver dipped to nearly sub-human levels last season at 5.09 per nine. I cannot, nor will I try, to defend a 5.09 K/9 rate. It’s hideous. I will note again that from 2012-14 his K/9 rate was about seven, so it’s possible he kicks things up a bit. Possible though is not certain, and his swinging strike rate suggests it may not come back being that it was a career worst 8.3 percent last season. Still, that’s not that far off the 9.0 mark he posted in 2014 or his 9.5 career rate. It’s close enough that some rebound could happen, even with the loss of velocity.

THE WALK

Though the strikeouts are gone, Weaver still does a great job in limiting the walk. Over the course of his career Weaver has a strong 2.38 walk rate per nine. In 5-of-6 seasons Weaver has been below that mark. In fact, and this might surprise many, Weaver posted a 1.87 walk rate per nine last season which was a career best. He isn’t beating himself, lost velocity or not.

THE BATTED BALL

Weaver always allows too many fly balls. An obnoxious amount actually. For his career he owns a terrible 0.70 GB/FB ratio. Last year the mark was slightly better at 0.74. Neither mark is even remotely passable, the league average is about 1.10, but the good news is that things didn’t change last season.

Weaver has a 47.6 percent fly ball rate for his career and the mark was 46.5 percent last season. Think about that. Nearly half the batted balls this guy allows are fly balls. Despite allowing all those fly balls his HR/9 mark for his career is 1.02. That’s basically a league average rate. How does he accomplish this? He’s displayed a talent that isn’t expected to be real – he limits batters ability to hit homers despite allowing a ton of fly balls. For his career he owns an 8.1 HR/FB ratio. Not a single time in a decade has he matched the league average of 10 percent, though last season was a career worst at 9.9 percent. Losing velocity is a concern that shows itself here. It’s also a concern when we talk total homers. If he were to allow, let’s say an 11 percent HR/FB ratio this season, his homer total could skyrocket. He is already coming off the two worst HR/9 marks of his career the last two seasons at 1.14 and 1.36. It’s already in the danger zone. Any further erosion would leave Weaver in the I’m so scared I can’t leave my bedroom for fear of getting a death inducing illness zone.

Weaver’s career line drive rate is 19.1 percent. The last two seasons the mark is 19.2 and 19.0 percent. No change.

Weaver has a .271 career BABIP. The mark has been between .268 and .273 the last three seasons. No change.

Thought that was worth pointing out.

THE SPLITS

Weaver has always pitched better at home than on the road, and it’s not close. Check out his career numbers.

Those are massive splits. Even last season, when he stunk overall, check out how good he was at home:

4-2, 2.69 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 1.60 BB/9

That’s impressive stuff folks.

THE RATIOS

For the first time in six years Weaver posted an ERA over 3.59. It was a full run clear of that. The lost velocity didn’t help. The increased homer rate didn’t help. A career-low left on base rate didn’t help (the mark had been 78 percent or better the previous four seasons before dropping all the way down to 71.1 percent last season). SIERA (4.88) and x FIP (5.10) certainly didn’t suggest much goodness either. The only thing that really suggest major improvement in 2016 is history. Could happen, but league average type of number should be the hope, not the expectation.

Because Weaver doesn’t allow walks his WHIP is pretty stable. Even last season, when he was pretty bad, he posted a 1.23 WHIP. That’s better than Garrett Richards (1.24), Shelby Miller (1.25), Mike Fiers (1.25), Collin McHugh (1.29) and Carlos Martinez (1.29) just to mention a few. He should have yet another season with a WHIP under the league average, and the last time he was above the 1.23 mark he posted last season was in 2009 when it was 1.24. 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS. 

OUTLOOK

Weaver can still get outs. It’s not in a way that causes any excitement though in the fantasy game. Not enough strikeouts and just enough ERA volatility that Jered really shouldn’t be a target in any format in 2016.

10-team Mixed: Weaver is just a guy. In mixed leagues of this depth he should only be started in home games where he can still get it done. He has no strikeout upside and is at risk of falling off the effective map completely in 2016. Not worth drafting here.

12-team Mixed: Could draft him, but really, he’s still a streaming option to utilize when at home. Not much more than that. Without strikeouts, and all those issues on the road, there’s simply no reason to take a shot on Weaver over youngsters who possess more talent.

15-team Mixed: I could see putting him at the end of your bench in this format, but personally I would rather take a shot on a high leverage relief arm that could end up closing. You won’t regret passing on Weaver which means you don’t have to draft Weaver.

AL-Only: I can sign off on Weaver here. Last season was the first time in a decade that he didn’t win 10 games, and as we saw his WHIP isn’t likely to hurt you. He’s boring, but that might make his cost low enough that taking the plunge on him doesn’t require much risk.

To see where Weaver ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).