2016 MLB Player Profile: Ian Desmond

Ian Desmond is a three time, 20/20 threat. Last season he failed to reach either number on his way to a 19/13 season. He entered free agency hoping to hit it big. He failed to generate any significant interest on the market before eventually settling on a 1-year, prove it deal for $8 million with the Rangers. The club from Texas already has a shortstop in Elvis Andrus meaning that Desmond will be asked to play left field for the Rangers (for more on this development see Desmond Joins Rangers). Desmond will therefore offer dual position eligibility in the coming season, a nice bonus, though with the state of the shortstop position you really need to be playing him at that spot. Let’s look into to the 30 year old former star.

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

*Average is per 162 games played.

AVERAGE / APPROACH

Desmond has seen his average drop each of the past three seasons leading to a .244 mark the last two seasons and a mere .233 mark in 2015. No bueno.

Step by step.

First, he’s not a batting average booster. Expect below league average and be happy if he gets there.

Second, he strikes out a ton, and it’s getting worse. The last two seasons have seen him crest 180 punchouts, and over the last three seasons he’s averaged 172 strikeouts a year. A career strikeout rate (strikeouts / plate appearances) 23.5 percent man, the number has gotten scary the last two seasons at 28.2 and 29.2 percent.

Third, he doesn’t walk much at all with a career 6.1 percent walk rate. Despite 3-straight seasons of more than 154 games and 640 plate appearances, Desmond has never walked 50 times in a season. Never. That’s terrible.

Add two and three up and the result is a man with a 0.26 BB/K rate that is just two-thirds of the league average. Awful.

Four, he owns a career .322 BABIP. That’s a solid mark. From 2012-14 he posted BABIP marks between .326 and .336. Last season the mark dipped to .307.

Five, Desmond has a rather poor 17.8 percent line drive rate for his career. Remember, the league average is 20 percent. Even worse, in seven big league seasons the mark has been above 17.8 percent only twice.

Sixth, his career ground ball rate is 49.9 percent, and he’s been above that rate each of the last two seasons. That’s a high percentage of batted balls. More grounders end up as hits than fly balls, so that’s a slight benefit for Desmond. Not I wrote slight.

Seven, he just doesn’t get on base. His career OBP is .312. That’s worse than the league average. The mark has been in regression for three seasons: .335, .331, .313 and .290. That’s not going to help any part of his game, especially his batting average and runs scored marks. Oh, and his steals too.

HOME RUNS

From 2012 to 2014 Desmond hit 20 homers each season and averaged 23 homers a campaign. Last season he hit 19 homers, and sorry to say it, while 19 looks “bad” it’s well within the realm of the expected for a guy who is averaging 23 homers a season.

Desmond owns a fly ball rate of 32.4 percent for his career. That’s less than the league average of 34 percent. He simply doesn’t hit the ball in the air enough to be considered anything other than a ground ball artist, and that’s not necessarily an improvement. The mark has dipped even further to under 32 percent the last two seasons. Fewer and fewer of his batted balls are going skyward.

Desmond posted a three year run (2012-14) of 16.3 in the HR/FB category. That’s a strong but far from impressive number. Last season the mark dipped to 15.4 percent. Obviously that’s “normal” for a guy with this track record. Two of the past four years the mark has been 18 percent. Two of the last four seasons the mark has been under 15.5 percent. Solid, but not over the top.

From 2012-14 his Isolated Power mark was .188 with a .462 SLG. In 2015 the marks in those two categories were .151 and .384. Yikes. The ISO mark was a four year low. The SLG was a four year low.

Desmond wasn’t at all far off his “normal” last year, but it’s also not that easy to find a reason to believe that things will show a marked turnaround this season.

RUN PRODUCTION

From 2012 to 14 Desmond produced an average of 81 runs batted in a season. Last season the mark dipped to 62. Desmond is the only player in baseball, that plays shortstop, who has produced at least 62 RBI each of the past four seasons. He’s averaged 77 runs batted in over those four seasons. Desmond hit only .195 with a .546 OPS last year with Runners in Scoring Position. For his career the marks are .261 and .690, so it’s reasonable to expect a move back closer to his career level.

Though he fell off a bit in the runs batted in column, things haven’t really changed for him in the runs scored column. Over the last four seasons Desmond has recorded between 69 and 77 runs a season. Desmond and Elvis Andrus are the only the only shortstops in baseball who have scored at least 69 runs in each season. Never to 80, but always solid for Desmond since he is always on the field.

THE THEFT

As I noted above, pretty impossible to count on a guy stealing 20 bases when he can barely post a .300 OBP like he has the last two seasons. That could be part of the reason that Desmond stole just 13 bases last season, the first time in five seasons he failed to swipe 20 bases. He just didn’t get on base enough last season (.290 OBP). When he did run he was caught five times. He averaged six caught stealing the previous three years when he was over 20 thefts each year. Even when he ran his success rate was much lower in 2015. There’s also the fact that Desmond will be 31 in September. Perhaps he’s slowing just a bit? Certainly fair to posit that played a part in the dip as well. 
 

Make sure to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Desmond will qualify at shortstop even if he’s playing left field for the Rangers. Given the sorry state of the position, that means he should be considered a top-10 play at the position despite all the warts we’ve discussed. There simply aren’t many standout options at the position this season.

10-team Mixed: As a top-10 play obviously he’s startable in a 10 team league. His homer/speed combo, not to mention his RBI/Runs marks, place him as a solid option. You will have to work around that average though so try your best to avoid pairing him with players like Brian McCann, Jay Bruce and Mark Trumbo.

12-team Mixed: Desmond is a nice target. Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa will all be hot targets. Have to think someone is still willing to take the plunge early on Tulo. After that, it’s anyone’s guess has to how the position will be filled out. Desmond marks a strong counting category option, that will have a moderate price, for those of you wishing to avoid spending a top level draft pick, or $20+ dollars, at the shortstop position.

15-team Mixed: I will target Desmond in this setup given that his poor batting average won’t be as much of an issue as everyone will be forced to roster players, at some point/position, that won’t be boosters in the category. Given the overall ineptitude of standouts at the position, Desmond should be given a shot for those of you who won’t have a problem with a potential 15/15 threat.

AL-Only: A prime target with only a couple of options legitimately ranked ahead of him. You wouldn’t want to play him in the outfield in most instances, but the positional flexibility is certainly a nice booster to his value as well.

To see where Desmond ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).