2016 MLB Player Profile: George Springer

George Springer is older than you think. He’s already 26 years old, he’ll turn 27 in September, and he’s had a hard time staying on the field the past few seasons. That doesn’t change the fact that, despite some warts, that his game is extremely fantasy friendly. What could the talented outfielder accomplish if he finally stayed healthy long enough to play 150 games for the Astros? Big things in my opinion.

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

MINOR LEAGUE NUMBERS

2011: A first round selection out of the University of Connecticut. Only appeared in eight games at Low-A.

2012: Over 128 games he went 24/32 at High-A and Double-A. He hit .302 with a .383 OBP and .526 SLG.

2013: He blew up at Double and Triple-A in 135 games. Springer went .303/.411/.600. He went nuts with 37 homers and 45 steals. Also drove in 108 runs and scored 106 times. Massive effort indeed.

2014: Saw action in just 16 games with a /345/.471/.636 slash line.

2015: Had 20 at-bats at Double-A with a .683 OPS.

Here are his rankings according to the Big-3 each year, prospect-wise in all of baseball.

BIG LEAGUE NUMBERS

2014: Appeared in 78 games with the Astros. He blasted his way to 20 homers, 51 RBI and 45 runs scored hinting at massive potential. Only hit .231.

2015: Improved to .276 in the batting average category though his power took a step back in 102 games as he hit 16 homers with 41 RBI. Scored 59 times and stole 16 bases.

HEALTH CONCERNS

In 2014 Springer hurt his quadriceps muscle. It hampered his running, we will get to that, but it also caused him to miss 68 days. An extended DL stay wasn’t what anyone had hoped for from the rookie.

In 2015 he missed another chunk of days, about 70, as he suffered a fractured wrist.

Two seasons. Two significant injuries. A concern.

BATTING AVERAGE / APPROACH

Through 796 plate appearances and 683 big league at-bats Springer has hit .256. That career number is .020 points below his mark in 2015 and .025 points above his rookie mark. Yep, nearly exactly in the middle. Springer may not be able to replicate his .276 mark from last season, but let’s look a bit deeper to see if that initial impression is incorrect.

Springer struck out 114 times in 295 at-bats as a rookie. That’s a pathetic 33 percent K-rate.

Springer struck out 109 times in 388 at-bats in his second season. That’s a much better, but still poor, 24.2 percent K-rate.

All told Springer has struck out 223 times in 683 at-bats. Per 600 at-bats that would equate to 196 strikeouts. That’s a massive number. There have only been 14 seasons in the history of baseball that someone has struck out 196 times. Over the past two seasons, minimum 750 plate appearances, Springer’s 28.0 percent K-rate is 12^th worst in baseball. Again, he did show improvement last season, but it’s something to keep in mind, especially when you consider that his swinging strike rate is 15.9 percent, a massive jump over the league average of 9.5 percent. When you don’t make contact, you don’t produce a strong batting average.

Springer posted a pathetic 15.3 percent line drive rate in his rookie season. He posted a far too high 24.5 percent line drive rate in his second season. What does that leave us with? A career mark of 20.9 percent which just so happens to sound about right.

Springer posted a league average BABIP of .294 as a rookie. Last season the mark soared to .342. The batted ball speed data isn’t complete, but amongst players who had at least 180 at-bats with data last season Springer’s average of 89.64 mph was just 95^th in baseball. That number clearly doesn’t jump of the page. Neither does his mere 33.1 percent hard hit rate which was merely 56^th in baseball (minimum 450 plate appearances). The bottom line is that I’m not sure he’s going to be able to hold on to his .342 BABIP mark.

Springer does take a walk, and I obviously like that. He posted an 11.3 percent walk rate in 2014 and a nearly identical 11.1 percent mark in year two. Per 150 games that would equate to 74 walks. The resulting .354 OBP is a solid mark indeed. When you think that it’s .098 points above his batting average, you gotta feel good about it.

I should also point out two other facts. Springer has been a bit better against lefties in his career, and way better when hitting on the road where there’s a major gap in his OPS. Here are his career numbers in both situations. Oh, and note, there’s a massive difference in those numbers at home and on the road.

vs. lefties: .261/.396/.483
vs. righties: .254/.334/.454

Home: .216/.332/.381
Away: .293/.375/.538
 

Keep those splits in mind those of you that play in DFS as well as those of you that can change your lineup on a daily basis.

POWER

Springer has a 22.9 percent HR/FB rate for his career. Amongst batters with at least 750 plate appearances the last two years that mark is 7^th best in baseball. The man has tons of power. No debate there. However, there’s a big issue that needs to be brought out of the dark recesses. That is that Springer simply doesn’t hit the ball in the air. The past two seasons he has a fly ball rate of 33.8 percent. That mark comes in, sit down for this, 126^th in baseball (minimum 750 PAs). That stinks. Moreover, the mark is below the league average of 34 percent. He just doesn’t hit the ball in the air enough to be a league leader in homers unless he continues to be a league leader, top of the charts kind of stuff, in the HR/FB category. Not saying he can’t hit 30 homers, but dreams of a 35+ homer season, barring a change in approach, are unlikely to be fulfilled.

SPEED

Here’s the big question. Can Springer be the stolen base threat he was expected to be?

Springer stole 45 bases in 2013, his last full season in the minors.

He stole a mere five bases in 78 games in 2014. As I noted earlier he had a leg issue that knocked him out of action for a long period. Last season he stole 16 bases in 102 games leading folks to once again dream of a 30/30 effort. I’m not in that boat. I can’t disregard what I’ve seen though, and that means a run to 20/20 seems possible, even probable, if he can stay healthy. And that’s the biggest issue with Springer – can he stay on the field? Until he proves to me that he can suit up for 150 games I simply can’t, at least completely, support that he’s a 20/20 player. I want to believe, I almost do, but that little bit of caution keeps me from a full-throated yell of support. Very close though, on the precipice if you will. 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Springer is a legit talent who is capable of an MVP type season. There’s just not that many players like that. He could go nutso in 2016, no doubt, but concerns about his batting average, what his steals total will be, and if he can stay healthy make him one of the riskiest players that will routinely be taken in the first three rounds of a draft.

10-team Mixed: A borderline OF1, I would much prefer him to be my second outfielder. His average might be a drag in a league this shallow, but as long as he can stay healthy he should produce enough in the counting categories to be worth the investment.

12-team Mixed: If I can combine Springer with a guy like Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Altuve… guys I can basically count on to hit.300, then Springer is an ideal match given that his overall game, sans average, should be impressive.

15-team Mixed: A somewhat risky OF1 because of his uneven work the past two seasons, Springer is the type of difference making talent that warrants an early bid. You will most likely have to spend your second round pick on Springer in this format, which would lead me to the position that it would be wise to sandwich Springer with reliable options in the first and third rounds. Another way to put it. I wouldn’t draft Springer in the first three rounds if one of those other selections was a starting pitcher. I want to surround Springer with stability if I’m investing in him early.

AL-Only: He’s obviously a top-10 outfielder in this setup, maybe top-5, and there will be many willing to spend a first round selection on him on draft day. It’s risky to go that all in on a guy that might be a .250 hitter, and one that has never hit 21 homers or stolen 17 bases in a big league season, but the talent is there if you have a high enough risk/tolerance personality.

To see where Springer ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).