Asdrubal Cabrera is 30 years old. He’s boring, no one is ever rushing to draft him, and you are likely thinking that you’re wasting your time even reading this intro about him. I promise though that it’s worth your time to continue reading. Cabrera isn’t sexy. He isn’t going to bust loose and tear it up. He’s also not going to hurt you. Depending on how you put your team together that might work out just great for ya.
Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.
THE CONTRACT
Cabrera signed a 2-year, $18.5 million deal with the Mets. He will be their starter at shortstop this season though he might also see some time at third base when the club decides that they need to rest David Wright.
THE NUMBERS
Cabrera has posted at least 500 at-bats each of the last five seasons. He’s hit that mark in 6-of-7 seasons. Here’s a quick glance at the last seven seasons.
He hit .308 and stole 17 bases while scoring 81 times in 2009.
In 2010 he appeared in just 97 games.
The last five years he’s appeared in at least 136 games each season. Let’s look at those five years and his 5x5 fantasy numbers.
2011: .273-25-92-87-17
2012: .270-16-68-70-9
2013: .242-14-64-66-9
2014: .241-14-61-74-10
2015: .265-15-58-66-6
His average effort the last five years includes the following numbers: .259-17-69-73-10. Do you know how many shortstops matched those 5x5 numbers in the 2015 season? The answer is zero. None. As I said at the top, there is no bust lose here with Cabrera, just stability. I mean, how blown away are you to learn that Cabrera’s average fantasy line the last five years are numbers that no shortstop in baseball was able to match last season?
Moreover, let’s look at how Cabrera ranks amongst shortstops the last five years. Note, the numbers are from only the games in which he appeared at shortstop.
Cabrera has 79 home runs. That’s fifth in baseball for a shortstop.
Cabrera has 322 RBI. That’s tied for fifth in baseball for a shortstop.
Cabrera has 343 runs scored. That’s eighth in baseball for a shortstop.
Those are not great numbers, I admit it. Still, there’s a ton of stability with Cabrera the last five years. In fact, once the elite guys are off the board, A-Cab is a super stable, boring option.
CURRENT ADP
If we take a look at the Average Draft Position of Cabrera in the NFBC we find that he’s going off the board at just about the 295th overall pick, barely inside the top-20 at the shortstop position. As the number show above, he’s more productive than he’s being given credit for.
BACK TO THE NUMBERS
Cabrera has hit .259 the last five years. In 2015 he hit .265. He’s a career .267 batter.
In 2015 he had a .306 BABIP. His career mark is .307.
In 2015 he had a 20.7 line drive rate. His career mark is 20.4 percent.
In 2015 he had an 8.7 HR/FB ratio. His career average is 8.3 percent.
In 2015 he had a 0.34 BB/K ratio. His career mark is 0.43.
In 2015 Cabrera had a .315 OBP. His career mark is .329.
In 2015 Cabrera had a .430 SLG. His career mark is .412.
In 2015 Cabrera had a .744 OPS. His career mark is .740.
The point of all of that is to make you aware that Cabrera was, obviously, the same guy last season that he always is. Is that impressive? No. Is it bankable? Yes it is.
Two parts of his game that is a concern is his fly ball rate. Here is what we know.
1 – Fly balls are the least likely type of batted ball to end up as a hit (other than an infield fly).
Cabrera isn’t a home run hitter. He’s only hit more than 16 homers once, but he has hit at least 14 each of the past five years. He’s been able to sustain that homer pace because (A) he’s always on the field and (B) his fly ball rate is way up the last three seasons. Only once in his first six years was his fly ball rate above 36.4 percent. Each of the last three seasons the mark has been over 40 percent including a career-high 43.6 percent of batted balls last season. The extra fly balls aid his ability to hit the big fly but also hinder his ability to show any kind of improvement in the batting average category.
2 – He doesn’t walk much so therefore his OBP is usually poor. The .315 mark he posted last season is a three year high. The two previous seasons the mark is .299 and .307. If you’re in an OBP he’s a poor play. Period.
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rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.
OUTLOOK
Cabrera, at his current ADP cost, is well worth considering adding to a club. Seriously. You don’t have to invest anything in Asdrubal and the odds are very high that he will do what he has always done and that is be a solid place holder. Let others spend for their shortstop early in drafts. Just sit back, wait, and end up with Cabrera late knowing that you will be capable of treading water at the shortstop position.
10-team Mixed: Not worth starting in this format. Even as a middle infield play. This league is so shallow you would be better off taking the chance on an upside play. Even if that guy craps out, you can always run to waivers to add a guy like Cabrera.
12-team Mixed: I wouldn’t love starting Cabrera at shortstop in a league this size, but as a middle infield play he’s passable.
15-team Mixed: As of this writing, Cabrera is ranked 15th at shortstop (take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide). As I’ve noted many times, Cabrera’s track record strongly suggests that a season in the 15-20 range at shortstop this season is pretty much a lock. Stability, even if boring, up the middle is important the deeper the league is. Cabrera fits that bill precisely.
NL-Only: Come up with 10 other shortstops that are better than Cabrera. Obviously you can’t in a setup like this one. Can you? I don’t think you can. The shortstop position in the National league doesn’t have an elite option, does it? Maybe Corey Seager, but wow, it’s so hard suggesting a guy who doesn’t even have a season under his belt is elite. People will chase the likes of Seager and Brandon Crawford though while you slow play it and end up with Cabrera.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).