Why Fantasy Baseball Projections Stink: Part II

I recently wrote a column titled Why Fantasy Baseball Projections Stink. In that article I laid out why we don’t have season long projections for the 2016 fantasy baseball season at Fantasy Alarm. I would wholeheartedly encourage people to read that account. It’s straight forward and hopefully it will change your thoughts on projections and why they aren’t anywhere near as relevant/reliable as you likely think.

In this piece I figured – at the prodding of my SiriusXM co-host Kyle Elfrink (we appear at 7 PM EDT M-F on the Sirius XM Fantasy Drive) – I would preview five random hitters and pitchers. How do five respected sources view the outlook for a series of 10 players in 2016? We will touch bases in October and see how they did.

Admittedly this is a very basic, too basic if being honest, way to look at the subject of projections, but I’m a busy guy so this is what we get. I like being able to pull that card when it suits me.

Let’s explore.

HITTERS

Pretty tight grouping here with only Rotoworld’s HR/SB totals being lower than others standing out.

No one is predicting a breakout though all suggest a 15/10 season is certainly possible.

Isn’t it odd that all the sources seem so close given the volatile nature of Puig’s effort? That brings up a point to discuss. There is a bit of a “herd mentality” when it comes to rankings/projections. By that I mean that people are often afraid to really step out on their own. It’s scary to be standing at the edge of the cliff wondering what awaits for you in the abyss. That means most sites play it safe and go with a reasonable projection. If I surveyed five sources on Puig I would have expected someone to say “.270-11-42-40-3” thinking he would bomb, and someone to say “.300-25-85-85-15” expecting a return to the levels that were once predicted for him. Instead, we have five pretty similar, down the middle, projections. I’m not calling out any of these sources. They are doing what is smart and playing it safe. Is that safety going to lead to a realistic projection though? You have to ask yourself that question, or at least you should, when you’re viewing projections. This is especially true for young, unproven or oft injured players. Anyone can say .300-20-80-80 for Joey Votto since we know who it is. It takes real guts for someone to say .290-25-80-75-10 for Corey Seager or for Miguel Sano to go .225-27-62-57.

Again, safe. In 2014 Rendon went .287 with 21 homers and 17 steals. Where is that here?

Rotoworld is very aggressive with the homer and RBI counts. They didn’t play it safe. Can’t see him reaching either number though. 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

PITCHERS

So for those of you who think that Cueto is washed up realize that none of the five sources would agree.

Everyone is expecting a pullback from Estrada. All still expect him to be a strong contributor in the WHIP column.

For a guy who has pitched for more than a decade, it’s probably a bit aggressive that all five sources predict a strikeout total for Liriano that he has reach just two times.

Everyone is all in with Stroman. Kinda of agree with them.

Big spread in wins but for the rest of the ledger most of the sources are similar.

So there we go. Five pitchers, five hitters. We’ll revisit this report when the season is complete in October.