Kyle Gibson was a first round selection in the 2009 Entry Draft. Entering the 2013 campaign he was ranked as a top-70 prospect in all of baseball: Baseball America 68th, Baseball Prospectus 64th and MLB.com 49th. He hasn’t come close to living up to that level of production, though he has improved each season. Is there any reason to expect that he will be able to move from the level of league average to a worthy mixed league option?
Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.
THE LAST THREE YEARS
2013: In 10 starts Gibson went 2-4 with a 6.53 ERA. It was a rough rookie season as he also posted a 1.75 WHIP and 1.45 K/BB ratio over 51 innings.
2014: In his first full season he was… less than exciting. Gibson went 13-12 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 179.1 innings. He struck out a mere 107 batters with a 1.88 K/BB ratio.
2015: Improved in year three, which is relative of course. Gibson went 11-11 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Upped his K-rate to 6.70 per nine though his walk rate also inched up to an exact match to his 3.01 career mark in BB/9.
CAREER: 26-27, 4.43 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 5.95 K/9, 3.01 BB/9
If you were a league average hurler the last three seasons here would be your numbers:
24-23, 4.02 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.32 K/9, 2.88 BB/9
So let’s review.
The last three years Gibson’s record has been worse than league average.
His ERA has been worse than the league average.
His WHIP has been worse than the league average.
His K/9 has been worse than the league average.
His BB/9 has been worse than the league average.
Pretty exciting, eh?
A BAD, BUT ACCURATE COMP
I think we have a Rick Porcello situation going on here. Every year sources suggest that it’s all going to come together for Porcello. I hear less excitement with Gibson, a very similarly skilled arm to Porcello, but the minority still can be vocal that Gibson can break out this season. Is there a reason, that is legit, to think that Gibson will break out?
STRIKEOUTS
His stuff suggests strikeouts could happen. His slider is a really good pitch actually. However, to this point, it’s just not happening in the strikeout category for Gibson. Yes, he struck out a career best 6.70 batters per nine innings last season. He also owns a mere 5.95 K/9 mark for his career. It’s only 73 starts, but that’s a lot of outings for a fella to not even reach the level of seven strikeouts per nine, or the league average for a hurler (7.32 per nine the last three years). His swinging strike rate also went up last season, from 8.8 in year two to 9.8 in 2015. The league average is 9.5 though, so it’s not like that swinging strike rate is suggestive of a big break out in the strikeout column.
WALKS
Last season Gibson walked 3.01 batters per nine. That’s slightly higher than the 2.86 mark he had in 2014. It’s also an exact match for his 3.01 career rate. This category – Gibson is league average. Just how it is at this point. That doesn’t exactly bode well for his WHIP. More on that in a moment.
K/BB RATIO
When you don’t strike out a league average number of batters, and you issue free passes at a league average rate, well, you aren’t going to impress anyone in the K/BB ratio. Gibson had a three year best last season at 2.23, but that still worse than the league average the last three seasons (2.54). Ugh.
RATIOS
To this point Gibson has a 4.43 ERA. That stinks (the league average the last three years is 4.02).
To this point Gibson has a 1.35 WHIP. That stinks (the league average the last three years is 1.30).
Even last year, his best to date, we’re still talking about a 3.84 ERA and 1.29 WHIP which marks him as a league average arm in ERA and WHIP.
On, in case you’re wondering, SIERA and xFIP agree.
| ERA | SIERA | xFIP |
2013 | 6.53 | 4.71 | 4.77 |
2014 | 4.47 | 4.18 | 3.99 |
2015 | 3.84 | 4.12 | 3.68 |
Career | 4.43 | 4.22 | 4.07 |
Just hasn’t produced in ERA.
SPLITS
Same is, as same does for the majority of this category.
Home: 13-11, 4.32 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Away: 13-16, 4.52 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
vs. Righty: .258/.307/.355
vs. Lefty: .270/.343/.344
There is one area in which he’s slumped, and that is late in the year.
Pre All-Star: 18-15, 3.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Post All-Star: 8-12, 5.41 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
BATTED BALL RATES
Gibson is a league average arm in terms of line drive rate. For his career Kyle has a 19.7 percent line drive rate. That’s a hair below the league average, but really, it’s the same.
Gibson does own one elite skill to this point of his career, and that is a talent that leads to ground balls. In each of his last three seasons Gibson is the owner of a 50 percent ground ball rate. Over the last two seasons the mark is nearly 54 percent and it sits at 53.4 percent for his career. I love seeing this. As a result of all the grounders Gibson owns a 1.98 GB/FB ratio for his career. Over his last two seasons Gibson owns a 53.9 percent ground ball rate which is the 7th best in baseball.
As a result of all the grounders it’s hardly a shock to see that Gibson owns a 0.78 HR/9 mark for his career, a solid mark.
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rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.
OUTLOOK
Gibson is 28 years old and has two seasons of full-time work under his belt. While there might be seeds of success here, the fact is that to this point of his career the only thing that Gibson has done at a rate that is better than the league average is to induce grounders. That’s not a compelling case that should lead anyone to think a breakout is coming with Gibson.
10-team Mixed: With middling ratios and less than a league average K-rate I can’t fathom why he would be drafted in this format.
12-team Mixed: Nothing more than a spot starter type. I’m not going to get upset and bothered if he’s the last starting pitcher on your roster, but I’m also not going to think you pulled a fast-one on the rest of your league by drafting him.
15-team Mixed: Someone will roster him here. All depends how your roster is constructed. While you’re rostering Gibson I will be spending my reserve round selections on young players with less than certain playing time who one elite type skills or setup arms in the bullpen with high level skills.
AL-Only: He’s shown some growth, and does get all those grounders. If he somehow uses that slider to gain, let’s say ¾ of a point in his strikeout rate, he could be a nice arm in ’15. Don’t overspend, but spending an appropriate amount in this format is warranted.
To see where Gibson ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).
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