2016 MLB Player Profile: Ben Revere

I get it.

How do you compare pizza to burritos? You really can’t. They both fill your tummy with goodness and are yumtastic. It’s kind of like in baseball where people compare players. Comparing Nelson Cruz to Chris Davis is like comparing a burrito to a chimichanga. However, comparing Nelson Cruz to Ben Revere, that’s even more disparate than pizza to a burrito. And that’s the problem with Revere (who is now on the Nationals if you missed it). People don’t know how to properly evaluate a guy who runs a lot but does nothing in two of the five main fantasy categories (homers, runs batted in). Let me see if I can help you out with that as we move through this piece.

I’m not going to get all fancy with this piece. I’m not going to bore you with coefficients and spreadsheets. Let me say it simply. Players earn value based upon their exploits. When we talk about a player earning a certain $ figure we are saying that he is earning value in the categories in our league (let’s say 5x5 for our argument here). Players earn five different values, one for each category, if you’re in a five category league. You then add up all five numbers, one for each category, to get a total dollar amount. Pretty simple. The problem people have is understanding this simple scenario. They understand the theory, but they fail to understand the values assigned to each category. Let’s talk steals first.

STEALS

Here is a chart talking about 30-steal men, and the overall league stolen base totals, for the 21^st century.

After peaking in 2012 with 23 men swiping 30 bags, there have only been a total of 23 such seasons the last two years. Obviously last season saw the fewest 30-steal men in the 21^st century. As such, men that steal bases are more valuable than ever before. You can also see the downward, league-wide trend the past three years culminating in the lowest steals mark last season of the 21^st century. The truth is that steals are harder to come by than ever before, but in total numbers and in terms of the elite producers in that category. That means guys that steal bases are worth MORE than they have been in the past.

Revere is one of the few guys who still runs. In four of the last five seasons he’s stole at least 31 bases each time. The only time he missed that mark was when he was limited to a mere 88 games in 2013. He still swiped 22 bases that season, easily putting him on pace to eclipse 30-steals yet again. Revere is the ONLY man in baseball who has hit that mark, 22 steals, each of the last five seasons. He is one of three men to have swiped at least 30 bases in 4-of-5 seasons. The others are Jose Altuve and Rajai Davis. Revere has 176 steals the last five years, third most in baseball (Dee Gordon 188, Davis 179). By the way, the last two seasons Revere has 80 steals, the fourth most in baseball.

Flat out. Revere is one of the best base stealers in baseball. Period.

BATTING AVERAGE

Let’s talk batting average now (minimum 502 plate appearances).

As you can easily see, batting average is on the decline. Each of the past six years the league has failed to hit .258. Check back to the first year of the 21^st century and you will note that the league hit .270. If you look at the individual category, you can also see the massive difference between how many fellas used to hit .300 and how many do at this point. In 2000 there were 50 individual seasons of a .300 average. The last two seasons only 37 men have hit .300. Roughly forty percent as many fellas hit .300 as they did 15 years ago. That’s a m a s s i v e difference. Humongous.

Revere hit “just” .294 in 2012. In the three years since he’s hit .305, .305 and .306. He is one of the most consistent hitters in baseball when it comes to batting average. There are only three men in baseball who have hit .300, each of the past three seasons: Revere, Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt. Impressive, right? Revere has also hit .306 the past three seasons, the 10^th best overall mark in baseball (minimum 1,000 plate appearances). His speed and ability to make contact (he’s made contact on 91.8 percent of all the swings he has taken in his career, an astounding mark really), point to Revere being one of the most consistent batting average options in the game.

FANTASY VALUE

According to ESPN, Revere was the 15^th most valuable outfielder last season. He was just barely behind Andrew McCutchen. He was just ahead of Carlos Gonzalez.

According to Yahoo, Revere was the 24^th most valuable outfielder, just behind Jason Heyward and just ahead of Adam Jones.

According to Rotowire, Revere was the 27^th most valuable outfielder, just behind Adam Jones and just ahead of Kole Calhoun.

According to CBS, Revere was the 28^th most valuable outfielder just behind Gardner and Heyward and just ahead of Adam Jones.

No matter which site you trust, the fact is that Revere was likely a much better option last season than you thought, right? Look at the names he’s listed next to: McCutchen, CarGo, Adam Jones, Gardner, Heyward and Calhoun. Surprised aren’t you?

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

The fact is that Revere is a limited player. Zero question about that. But that misses the point completely. Despite hitting four homers in his career and never having produced 50 runs batted in, Revere’s ability to rack up steals and consistently produce a borderline elite batting average is virtually unmatched. He’s also scored an average of 78 runs the past two seasons and has scored at least 70 times each of the three seasons that he’s posted 500 at-bats. He’s strong in that category as well. He needs to be rostered on a team that is full of power options at other spots, but don’t look past him because he does possess a skill set that is borderline elite in the two hardest categories to fill in the fantasy game.

10-team Mixed: The lack of pop and RBI outlook dim his star here. It’s easier to cover his weaknesses in deeper leagues. Revere will be on plenty of championship teams this season in leagues of this size, but he will drop to being a 4/5 outfielder because of his lack of an overall game.

12-team Mixed: Current ADP, as of this writing, had Revere listed outside the top-100 overall and outside the top-25 at the outfield spot. That means he’s going off the board as a 3^rd outfielder, though I know there are plenty of leagues where he will end up as a 4^th outfielder. A nice spot to take him behind two other bats in the outfield, fellas with a bit more sock.

15-team Mixed: I think that Revere profiles as a third outfielder in this format. If he’s my fourth outfielder. Yahoo. If he’s my third outfielder. Love it. If he’s my second outfielder I better have built up a strong infield. A great target, per everything else that has been said, given his two main talents.  

NL-Only: Revere is an elite option here, especially if the Nationals hit him leadoff and not 8^th (there is some question about where he will bat). If he’s hitting leadoff I’m all about rostering Revere, even if he is expensive. Even if he’s hitting 8^th, I’m still in (just at a slightly reduced price). In leagues where his true value is overlooked I’m completely down with spending big to get Revere.

To see where Revere ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).