2016 MLB Player Profile: Gio Gonzalez

Gio Gonzalez is only 30 years old, surprised aren’t you?, and he’s won at least 10 games for each of the last six seasons. He’s also posted an ERA under 3.80 in every one of those years while being quite the strike out force. He’s also coming off a bit of a down season and as a result people are looking right past him. I’m here to tell you that you should take the other tact. Take a second look at Gio G.

MLB CAREER

91-66, 3.62 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.83 K/9, 3.85 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9, 1.44 GB/FB

THE STRIKEOUT

Gio has struck out 8.83 batters per nine innings for his career. That’s 1,241 strikeouts over 1,264.2 innings. Since he began his career in 2008 there are only four men with a better K/9 rate (minimum 1,000 innings): Max Scherzer 9.79, Clayton Kershaw 9.75, Tim Lincecum 9.34 and Francisco Liriano 9.05. I bet you weren’t expecting that were you?

The owner of that 8.83 strikeout per nine mark, Gonzalez has been at or above that mark in all but three seasons out of eight years. Look at it this way. Over the last five seasons he’s missed the rate twice with an 8.78 mark in 2011 and an 8.66 mark last season. Not that far off now is it? The fact is that Gio is a borderline elite option in the strikeout column, at least according to his K/9. Just the fact.

Gio has struck out at least 162 batters each of the last six seasons.

Gonzalez owns a 9.5 swinging strike rate. Just about the league average, but he’s been stable with a mark of at least 9.4 percent each of the last five years.

THE WALK

As good as Gonzalez is in the strikeout column he’s almost equally as poor in the walk column. For his career Gio has a 3.85 walk rate per nine. The league average since he began his career is 3.10 walks per nine. Obviously Gio is subpar in this category.

One positive, a slight one of course, is that the last time he reached his career rate was 2011. That’s a long time ago. Moreover, Gio hasn’t walked more than 3.54 batters per nine in any of the last four seasons. Don’t mistake what I’m saying here. A mark of 3.54 ain’t good. Just isn’t. Still, it’s a manageable mark though it does leave his WHIP open to some instability from season to season.

RATIOS

Let’s tackle the WHIP mark I just noted.

For his career, because of those walks, Gio owns a 1.32 WHIP. Not solid at all. Or is it? Actually, the league average WHIP mark since 2008 is 1.32. So Gio is average in that category for the duration of his career.

A second look at WHIP leads to the following data point: Gonzalez has been at or below 1.25, below the league average, in three of four seasons. Moreover, in 5-of-8 seasons Gonzalez has been at or below 1.32 in the WHIP category. His 1.42 mark last season was a six year high, but realize that there is little in his overall game to suggest that it’s impossible to have his WHIP mark in 2016 be below his career rate.

As for Gio’s ERA, slightly better news there. For his career he owns a 3.62 mark. That’s more than three tenths ahead of the 3.96 mark the league has posted since 2008. That will play. Even last season when he wasn’t at the peak of his talents his mark was 3.79, still a league average type of mark. His 3.79 ERA was also a 6-year high though the mark has been at least 3.37 each of the last three years.

What do SIERRA and xFIP have to say about Gonzalez?

Career ERA: 3.62
Career SIERA: 3.81
Career xFIP: 3.68

That’s a pretty high level of stability, right?

What were the marks last season when his ERA was 3.79? His SIERA (3.77) and xFIP (3.59) were both lower. They were also below his career mark in both categories. Maybe he wasn’t as bad last season as you initially thought?

BATTED BALL RATES

For his career Gonzalez owns a .295 BABIP, a completely league average mark.

From 2010-14 his BABIP was between .267 and .294 each year.

Last season his BABIP was .341.

Which number seems like the outlier to you?

Players tend to establish their own BABIP levels over rolling three year runs. You don’t post a mark slightly below the league average for years and then end up with the WORST BABIP in baseball for a starting pitcher in baseball (minimum 162 innings pitched). You certainly don’t do that unless there are accompanying concerns. Are there?

In 2015 Gonzalez had a 28.5 percent hard hit ball rate. His career mark is 27 percent.

In 2015 Gonzalez has a 19.5 percent line drive rate. His career mark is 19.2 percent.

In 2015 Gonzalez had a 37.2 percent pull rate. His career mark is 35.1 percent.

If you’re seeing what I’m seeing, it sure doesn’t seem like there was much change last season even with the massive uptick in BABIP.

More data.

Last season Gio had a 26.6 percent fly ball rate. That mark was the best of his career and the first time he was under 30.0 percent (career 33.1). Fewer fly balls are a bonus, but since fly balls are less likely to be hits than other types of batted balls that could speak to some of his BABIP increase (maybe .010 to .015 points). It does nothing to explain why he was the worst in baseball in the category last season.

Gio induced a ground ball rate of 53.8 percent. That mark is a career best. He’s always been an impressive ground ball artist with a career mark of 47.7 percent in the ground ball category but he took that number to elite levels last season.

For his career Gio owns a 1.44 GB/FB ratio. That’s a good mark. Last season the mark vaulted to a career best at 2.02, the 11^th best mark in baseball.

Batters swung at 30.9 percent of the pitches he threw outside the zone last year.
His career mark is 29.4 percent.

Batters swing at 65.2 percent of the pitches he threw inside the strike zone last year.
His career mark is 63.4 percent.

Batters had a 77.9 percent contact rate against Gonzalez last year.
His career mark is 78.0 percent.

Batters were attacked with a first pitch strike 59.9 percent of the time last year.
His career mark is 56.8 percent.

After looking at everything it’s pretty clear that the BABIP mark he posted was “unlucky.” There really isn’t an obvious reason to explain why the number exploded last season. That leads me to think that the number will regress, possibly substantially, in 2016.

WORKLOAD

From 2010 to 2013 Gonzalez tossed at least 195 innings each season.

In 2014 he threw 158.2 innings.

In 2015 he tossed 175.2 innings.

Last season Gonzalez threw 95.1 pitches a start.
His career mark is 99.1.

Last season he threw 16.8 pitches an inning.
His career mark is 16.9.

Last season he threw 3.89 pitches per plate appearance.
His career mark is 3.97.

Gio has thrown a good deal of pitches because of all those walks over the years, but he’s yet to turn 31 (it won’t happen until September) and I’m not personally ready to give up on his ability to throw 190-innings just yet. Let’s briefly look at his workload.

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