2016 MLB Player Profile: Raisel Iglesias

Raisel Iglesias is a 26 year old righty out of Cuba.

He signed a 7-year deal for $27 million with the Reds.

Standing 6’2” and weighing 185 lbs, Iglesias comes at batters with a three quarter release. There were struggles in his first season in the majors, but he also flashed some intriguing skills. We shall explore.

CUBAN NATIONAL SERIES

Iglesias appeared in 88 games from 2010-12. He went 8-12 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He struck out 169 batters while walking 115 men over 223.1 innings. Those are far from dominating/impressive numbers.

MINORS

In 2014 Iglesias appeared in seven games, throwing seven innings, in the Arizona Fall League. He didn’t allowed a run while walking three versus seven punchouts.

In 2015 he made six starts in Triple-A Louisville. He worked just 29 innings in those six starts allowing a 3.41 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Raisel walked eight batters while striking out 21 folks.

MAJORS

Iglesias appeared in 18 games for the Reds, starting 16 times, last season. Here are the results.

3-7 record, 4.15 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.82 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 1.48 GB/FB ratio over 95.1 innings

Here are some details on that 2015 effort.

STRIKEOUTS

Here’s a table showing his strikeout rate (K/9) since 2010.

*Note – he didn’t pitch in 2013 and I left out his seven innings from 2014 in the AFL.

Do you buy the increase in the K-rate that he showed last season with the Reds? Nothing in his background suggests that number is repeatable.

WALKS

Here’s a table showing his walk rate (BB/9) since 2010.

Do you buy the downturn in his walk rate last season? He was never close to a dart thrower before last season.

WORKLOAD

Heading into last season Iglesias had never thrown 85 professional innings in a season. Last year he tossed 124.1 innings. We should be careful merely accepting as the next step him throwing 180 innings. He is 26 years old so it’s reasonable to posit innings growth, but with no track record of how his arm will hold up once the innings pile up, caution is again warranted (at least in my opinion).

Speaking of workload, let’s take a look at the pitch counts he tossed last year for the Reds. He made 16 starts. In those outings he recorded 100 pitches six times with a high of 113 on July 21^st. Over his last 11 starts he recorded 90 pitches nine times, missing out with efforts of 61 and 89.

MECHANICS

Here’s a video of him chucking the rock in case you’ve never seen him hurl the pelota.

The problem with Iglesias, as we often see with foreign born hurlers, is that they aren’t huge fans of repeating their mechanics. Iglesias will at times seem to be coming straight over the top, while at other times he’s throwing low three quarters. In fact, there are even times that he will drop to almost a sidearm manner. That lack of consistent mechanics, and the variety of arm slots, is concerning (he often drops down on his slider and that cause the pitch to turns into more of a slurvy off-speed pitch than a sharp breaker). He has improved his mechanics and gained about 4-5 mph on his heater from his time in Cuba, and he does get sink on the ball when he stays on top of it, but that inconsistent release point still concerns. For a full breakdown of his mechanics you can follow this link for all the minutia.

ROLE

There are still talent evaluators who aren’t convinced that Iglesias wouldn’t be better off working out of the bullpen than the rotation. He will certainly start in 2016, especially given the messy state of the Reds’ rotation at the moment. Locked into that starting spot is Iglesias.

BATTED BALL DATA

Admittedly, 95.1 innings is nowhere near enough data to have the full picture, but it’s all we have right now.

Iglesias allowed a 21 percent line drive rate. Slightly above the league average.

Iglesias had a 47 percent ground ball rate leading to a 1.48 GB/FB ratio. I like that an awful lot. He does have sink on his pitches as well, so the high ground ball rate makes sense.

Iglesias had a 32 percent fly ball rate, just below the league average (34 percent). He had an elevated HR/FB ratio of 13.9 percent, so that is a category that bears a little watching.

Iglesias posted a .286 BABIP mark. Nothing to say with that number other than – there it is.

GAME SITUATION DETAILS

With the bases empty last season batters stood little chance of going something significant (.205/.380/.342). Those numbers all rose when there were men on base (.265/.324/.355) suggesting that he needs to work on his performance out of the stretch. The numbers got even worse when there were men in scoring position (.289/.333/.439).

Iglesias dominated righties pretty significantly last season (.176/.251/.329).

Not so much against lefties who had a lot of success (.286/.348/.368).

OUTLOOK

There are concerns about how many innings Raisel can throw, if he will be able to get lefties out, if he can improve out of the stretch, if he can simplify his mechanics and if he can hold on to his strikeout and walk rates. He’s got tons of potential, but the list of unknowns, at this point, is pretty extensive.

10-team Mixed: I’m just not comfortable suggesting someone go all in with a league this shallow. Having just read the above paragraph how could you disagree? Strong arm talent, but no more than an SP 5/6 type.  

12-team Mixed: This is a deeper league so it’s easier to take a guy with a great arm earlier on draft day. Regardless, Iglesias really shouldn’t be anything more than an SP5 in this format. There might be some scenarios where he could be your #4 – like if you took Price and Carrasco early on – but the concerns with Iglesias should not be minimized to the point that you slot him in a spot where he has to perform for you to win. You want to roster Iglesias at a spot where he can still return a profit in a league of this size.

15-team Mixed: An SP4, type, if you chose Iglesias at that level you will want to make sure you roster solid, dependable options as your SP 5/6. By that I mean I don’t want to see a 4-5-6 of Iglesias, Jose Berrios & Kenta Maeda. Roster stability with your starting rotation depth if you take a shot on Iglesias.

NL-Only: Once the elites are off the board you can start thinking about Iglesias. It’s really about risk tolerance with Raisel. You could roster him as your SP2 and he could fulfill expectations. He might also end up having issues causing him to be a league average performer in the terms of the numbers. How aggressive or passive you are with Iglesias will be determined by your demeanor as well as how you chose to put your team together. You know how I would do it. 

To see where Iglesias ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).