2016 MLB Player Profile: Brett Lawrie

Brett Lawrie, a newly minted White Sox, was a top-50 prospect heading into the 2011 season. He crushed it in the minors hitting .347 with 18 homers, 13 steals and a 1.060 OPS over a mere 73 games that year. He was promoted to the big leagues and continued to kill it hitting .293 with nine homers and seven steals over just 43 games. Some in the fantasy game were predicting that he would be a top-40 fantasy player in his first full season in 2012. It never happened. Heading into the 2016 season what do we have in Lawrie a player that, for the most part, simply hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations placed upon him.

MAJOR LEAGUE WORK – HEALTH WOES

Lawrie played 149 games last season. That’s the first time in five years, four if you throw out his rookie season, that he’s appeared in more than 125 games. Actually, from 2012-14 he averaged a mere 101 games played a year. Can’t trust a guy like that with a big draft day purchase.

So what changed last season? A couple of things. (1) He pretty much stopped running attempting only seven thefts all year. He didn’t beat his body up as much. (2) He got away from AstroTurf in Toronto and moved to grass in Oakland. (3) He tried to dial back his over the top enthusiasm just a bit. Nothing major mind you, but a little bit. Lawrie is trying to learn the art of doing things at 95 percent and not 100 percent all the time. Seemed to work last season too. It’s just one-time out of four seasons that he seemingly figured it out, so you would be wise not to be overwhelmed by the recency bias of last season even if it’s a nice sign that he seemed to have finally found the right mix last year.

POWER

Lawrie has been consistent as all get out in the homer category hitting 11, 11, 12 and 16 homers the last four seasons. At least it looks like that on the surface. Here is his homer per at-bat mark each year.

2012: one homer per 44.9 at-bats
2013: one homer per 36.5 at-bats
2014: one homer per 21.6 at-bats
2015: one homer per 35.1 at-bats

It’s up and down, way more than you would have thought based on the raw homer mark, so the homer total really doesn’t tell the full picture because his performance per at-bat has vacillated from campaign to campaign. Some more extrapolation of the up and down that doesn’t show up on the surface. Here are the HR/FB ratios for Lawrie over his five seasons followed by his fly ball rates.

As you can see, despite up and down work, in total Lawrie is pretty much a league average performer in both categories (the league averaged in HR/FB is 10 percent, fly ball 34 percent). If he were to combine his bests in each category a run to 20 homers is possible, especially in Chicago, but it’s far, far from a lock.

His career Isolate Power mark, a measure that speaks to a batter’s ability to generate damage with his bat, is .157. The league average since he began his career is .154 by the way. Though the mark was .174 in 2014, in 2012, 2013 and 2015 the mark failed to reach his career average.

Lawrie owns a .420 SLG for his career. Since 2011 the league average is .411. Only once in the last three seasons has Lawrie been above the league average (.421 in 2014).

He’s not a very good bet to boost his homer (16) or double (29) total from last season in any appreciable way, though a slight uptick in both categories is conceivable if everything comes together.

AVERAGE

Lawrie just hasn’t performed here. Only once in the last three seasons has he hit .255 – last year when he batted .260. That’s nothing to get excited about. He also owns a career .263 batting average. Again, blah. Is there hope for an improvement?

No.

Lawrie has a shocking inability to hit the ball on the screws. He just doesn’t hit line drives actually. Odd. For his career his line drive rate is 17.9 percent. The league average is 20 percent. That’s woefully short of the norm. Moreover, in two of the last three seasons he hasn’t even reached his career mark with his 18.5 percent rate last season being a three year high. That’s not good. At all.

For his career he owns a .300 BABIP that is spot on the league average. Only once in the last three seasons has he reached that mark. In fact, in two of the last three years the mark has been .280 and .260. The mark seems to fluctuate from season to season and overall is another average mark.

ON-BASE TALENTS

Lawrie doesn’t like to walk.

Over 494 big league games across five seasons he’s walked 123 times. Bryce Harper walked 124 times last season in just 153 games. Lawrie has never walked 35 times in a season. Joey Votto walked 38 times last August.

Since Lawrie doesn’t walk, and doesn’t hit line drives at the league average, his OBP is a mere .316 for his career. That’s actually three points below the league average in that time. The last two seasons, 219 games worth, Lawrie has an OBP of an even .300. That’s just awful. Not getting on base is going to hamper his ability to score runs. Lawrie did score 73 times in 2012 and 64 times last season, but expecting more is risky proposition since he just doesn’t get on base enough to allow his teammates a good shot to knock him in at a high rate.

SPEED

Lawrie stole 30 bases in Double-A in 2010 and in 2011 he stole 20 bases in just 112 games sparking hope of a 20/20 type performer in the big leagues. It just hasn’t happened. In 2012 he stole 13 bases. In 2013 he stole nine bases. In 2014 he stole zero bases, and as noted he swiped just five bags last season. Add that up and we’re talking about 14 stolen bases over the last three years. He has the talent and speed to swipe double-digit bags, but expecting that would be foolish.

FLEXIBILITY

Most leagues allow a player to qualify for a position if they have appeared in 20 games at position in the previous season. If that is the case, and it should be since it’s the industry standard, then Lawrie qualifies at two spots heading into the 2016 campaign, a huge benefit for him. Lawrie appeared at second base 42 times last season starting 40 times. Lawrie appeared at third base 109 times starting 106 times. That’s second and third base eligibility in all leagues folks, a great bonus when trying to pin down the value of Lawrie.

Note: The White Sox also added Todd Frazier this offseason so Lawrie is slated to open the season playing second base.

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

10-team Mixed: Lawrie has a moderate overall game and shouldn’t be a target in this format. He’s a reserve round addition at best and potentially an in-season addition off the waiver-wire.

12-team Mixed: I will find a spot for Lawrie on my team if I can in this format. A run to a 20/10 season is possible, and even if it’s not, there is the following: second base has depth this season but shortstop is a mess. Given that Lawrie obviously qualifies at a middle infield option he will end up being a very worthwhile play for many teams who are unlikely to find a suitable MI play at the shortstop position.

15-team Mixed: A nice value play here in the later rounds. Not only is everything written about in the 12-team note valid, Lawrie’s ability to play multiple positions paints him as an excellent addition to any squad, saving you from the ignominy of going to the waiver-wire to add the likes of Wilmer Flores or David Freese.

AL-Only: Don’t pay a premium given his injury filled past, but be very aware of Lawrie once the elites are off the board. Remember that Lawrie is only 26 years old, will be in a good park and part of a potentially strong lineup. That all sets up nicely for him to be very effective single league performer in 2016.  

To see where Lawrie ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).