We often look at the fantasy numbers of players and think we know the whole story. Sometimes those 5x5 numbers are indicative of the performance of the player but sometimes they aren’t. Sometimes people’s perception of performance is accurate. Sometimes it’s not. I will try to shed some light on a series of players who I believe the general fantasy player might be evaluating improperly. Look at me, knower of all, sharing his thoughts. I’m so arrogant. Except with ladies. There I’m usually cautious. In fact, I was too cautious for too long. Guys, ladies like confidence. Arrogance not so much, but confidence is a must. As my brother used to say, and let’s face facts that guy bagged women at a rate that Channing Tatum would have a hard time keeping up with, it’s all about confidence. If you believe it, if you exude it, others will believe it. Here is what I believe (hopefully my thoughts aren’t mere hubris but accurate depictions of what reasonable people should believe when it comes to the player’s 2016 outlook).

HITTERS

Corey Dickerson will be ignored by some after he failed to live up to expectations last season as injuries limited him to 65 games played. Still, it’s not like he failed when on the field as Dickerson hit .304 with a .536 SLG helping him to a .869 OPS. That OPS was better than guys like A.J. Pollock (.865), Carlos Gonzalez (.864) and Kris Bryant (.858) to name just a few. The only appreciable loss for Dickerson in 2015 when compared to 2014 is the fact that his walk rate fell from 7.7 to 4.3 percent. The rest, as they say, was smooth sailing. Note that in 2014 he went .312-24-76-74-8. He may not run much because of the foot woes from last season, but the soon to be 27 year old should hit, and hit a lot.

Freddie Freeman couldn’t succeed without players around him in Atlanta. That was the position of most last season (it’s OK to admit you were in that group). Facts are facts though. The reason Freeman failed to live up to expectations last season was due to ill health, not a weakened lineup. After 4-straight seasons with at least 147 games played he suited up for only 118 games last season. He was still able to hit 18 homers putting him on a 150 game pace of 23 homers. His career best in homers is 23. His 150 game RBI pace was 84. He had 78 RBI in 2014. He hit .276, nine points below his career mark. He had a .370 OBP, four points above his career rate. He had a .471 SLG, five points above his career rate. His OPS was .841, nine points above his career mark of .832. At age 26 on Opening Day there is no reason to believe that a full season of at-bats won’t lead to an impressive season. The only ding is that he’s just not a 30 homer bat. For more on Freeman, check out this audio of Ray talking about Freeman. 

Joc Pederson hit 26 homers last season with a .346 OBP. Ryan Braun hit 25 homers with a .356 OBP for some reference. Of course, Pederson hit .210 on the year and he fell flat on his face in the second half, embarrassingly so in fact (he hit .178 with a .617 OPS his last 62 games). So you should run as far and as fast from Pederson as possible, right? Well, not so fast. Pederson did whiff an inordinate amount (170 Ks), but he also walked 92 times leading to that .346 OBP that was only one point below the mark of Jose Abreu. That’s a strong positive for a rookie. It’s also highly unlikely that his BABIP will again be .262 or that his line drive rate will fail to reach 16 percent again. Also, despite only being successful on 4-of-7 steal attempts last season, don’t forget that he stole 29 bases in 2012, 31 in 2013 and 30 in 2014 when in the minors. It would be a big surprise if he didn’t reach double-digit thefts this season. The belief is he stinks. I see a rookie who hit 26 homers with a solid OBP who has more to give on the base paths.

Gregory Polanco actually had 593 at-bats last season. Surprised aren’t you? Will he get that many in 2016? It’s unknown, but it can be said that he has a massive amount of personal work to do against lefties. To this point he’s been a wet noodle against portsiders hitting .183 with a .239 OBP and .264 SLG (and no one, especially ladies, like wet noodles). There’s a real chance that Gregory could be benched when lefties are on the bump. If that happens there would be some concern. However, in total, the 24 year old has a lot to still recommend him. He’s yet to display a power stroke, he has 16 homers in 870 at-bats, but he has the talent and build (6’4”, 220 lbs) to hit that many in 2016. He can steal a bag with 27 thefts last season. He also owns a solid 0.47 BB/K ratio, .296 BABIP and 19.5 line drive rate. The skills are present for a 15/30 season, and the cost will be low enough that Polanco is well worth taking a risk on.

Yasiel Puig is douche bag. Period. No way around it. He is one of the most loathsome people in baseball right now. He’s selfish, grumpy, arrogant and generally thought of as one of the worst teammates in the game. He’s also gained weight and seemingly has a very lackadaisical approach to honing his craft. He was also an injury filled mess last season being limited to 79 games in 2015. There’s a chance that he will never live up to expectations. In fact, it might be better than 50/50 at this point that he won’t. Still, he is immensely talented. Puig, who is just 25 years old, owns a career .294/.371/.487 slash line (compare to Bryce Harper’s .289/.384/.517). That’s elite for a player his age. The cost will be low enough this year that he will be worth the risk. Not many MVP level talents, with a track record of success, are looked at with such a jaundiced eye.

Mark Trumbo is an Oriole. That fact may cause folks to look his way, but I’m positive the general perception is that the 30 year old outfielder is massive disappointment. I get it. On the surface his power numbers took a big hit last season (22 homers, 64 RBI), and since he only played 88 games in 2014 (14-61), people have moved on. That’s a mistake. Las season Trumbo had a .262/.310/.449 slash line. His career marks are .250/.300/.458. That’s right, he was the same overall hitter as always in 2015. He had a 40 percent fly ball rate last year, one point above normal. He had a 14.5 percent HR/F ratio. His career mark is 18 percent. Realize the difference is like 5-to-6 batted balls that end up in the seats. It’s really not much at all. The move to Camden Yards should allow Trumbo to relax and blast homers. He’s a great mid-round target who has tons of power and one who qualifies at two spots (23 games at first and 89 games in the outfield in 2015).

Christian Yelich turned 24 years old in December (he’s actually just 11 months older than Kris Bryant). Yelich was limited last season to 126 games as his back was a serious issue. He clearly didn’t reach anyone’s expectations last season, but how many of you realize that he hit .300 with a .366 OBP? Folks, Josh Donaldson who won the AL MVP hit .297 with a .371 OBP. Yelich may not hit 15 homers, his 62 percent ground ball rate is laughably high, but even through injury last season he still stole 16 bases in ‘15. How many players can legitimately hit .300 with 20 steals? The answer is not many. Yelich still owns an impressive skill set, minus the power, will hit near the top of the order, score a ton of runs and be a strong bargain in 2016 if he can just stay healthy.

PITCHERS

Andrew Cashner went 6-16 last season with a 1.44 ERA. That will cause folks to run away in droves. Should it? Not so fast. Cashner saw his walk rate climb to 3.22 per nine last season, a full point higher than his mark in 2014. He will need to bring that mark down, and given that the mark was about 2.30 the previous two seasons, one would think that’s reasonable to expect. A positive is that his K/9 rate was 8.04 per nine last season, more than a full batter over his 2013-14 marks (he didn’t reach 6.8 strikeouts per nine in either of those seasons). The guy gets a lot of ground balls and in 2013-14 his HR/9 mark was under 0.65 each seasons. Last year the mark soared to 0.93. It should regress, at least partially. However, it should be noted that each of the last four seasons we’ve seen the ground ball rate regress (59.3, 53.3, 52.5, 48.3 and 47.4 percent last season). Still, that 47.4 percent mark is banging as the kids say. Also pretty safe to assume that the .330 BABIP from last season will regress and more closely match the .292 BABIP he owns for his career. He has a great arm and, of course, a fair home park to pitch in.

Kevin Gausman was a top-25 prospects in all of baseball in 2013 and 2014. He and Dylan Bundy were going to be the 1-2 punch at the top of the Orioles rotation like Harvey-Syndergaard are with the Mets. It hasn’t happened in Baltimore as both Gausman and Bundy have been hurt off and on. As for Gausman, part of the blame has to go to the Orioles who have jerked him around starting him one month and then using him out of the bullpen the next. Orioles, talking right to you now, put him in the rotation and let him be. Stop, breathe, and let him do his thing. Last season Gausman had an 8.25 K/9 and 2.32 BB/9. That led to a 3.55 K/BB ratio over 112.1 innings. There were only 22 men in baseball who threw at least 110 innings and matched those K and BB per nine marks. His homer rate went way up as his HR/F rate on his fastball went from 5.7 percent in 2014 to 13.3 percent and his Isolate Power mark went from .111 to .188. If he can avoid laying the fastball down the chute he should see the homer total regress. Huge arm, a big time talent, who can still take the next step.

Drew Hutchison went 11-2 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.12 WHIP last season. Well, that’s half the story. He was borderline elite when pitching at home as the above numbers attest. On the road he was feces (that’s a fancy name for crap). Literally. In 14 outings on the road Hutchison had a 9.83 ERA and 2.06 WHIP. You will never find a split like that again. It’s impossible. If anything, you would think it would be reversed given that Toronto is a hard place to pitch. However, the data doesn’t lie. In 204 innings over 39 appearances on the road in his career Drew has a 6.22 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and a .298 batting average against. In 189.2 innings at home, over 34 outings, the numbers are sparkly: 3.51 ERA, 1.18 WHIP with a .232 batting average against. Overall, Hutchison has an 8.28 K/9 mark and a 2.83 BB/9 rate. He does have issues with the big fly, his 0.98 GB/FB ratio has helped lead to a 1.21 HR/9 mark for his career, but this is still an arm that can be effective when locked in. Given his massive home/road splits he’s only recommended in leagues where you can manage your roster on a daily basis or for those of you in the DFS space.

Julio Teheran won 14 games in 2013 and 14 in 2014 while throwing 406.2 total innings. His ratios those two years were borderline superlative: 3.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP. Last season he won 11 games with a 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and threw 200.2 innings. What went wrong with the 25 year old? Teheran had a 7.67 K/9 mark, just three hundredths off his career mark. He had a 1.21 HR/9 mark. His career ratio is 1.07. His BABIP was .288. His career mark is .280. He had a 1.10 GB/FB ratio. His career mark is 0.91. All of that is normal for Teheran stuff. What went wrong? His walk rate per nine was 3.27. The rate the previous two years was 2.13. Why? He didn’t control the fastball as he had in the past. For his career he’s thrown his heater at a rate that has led to 33.3 percent balls while his sinker has resulted in a 34 percent ball rate. In 2015 the marks were 38.4 and 36.4 percent. As a result of not controlling the heater as well the homer rate did go up with a career worst 13.0 percent HR/FB ratio (career 10.2). What I’m saying should be obvious. Teheran just wasn’t that far off last year and the guy owns a 3.44 ERA and 1.19 WHIP for his career. He’s also thrown at least 185 innings each of the last three years and his total of 607.1 innings the past three years is 12th most in baseball.

Jeff Samardzija signed a five-year, $90 million deal to return to the NL and pitch for the Giants. That move to the Senior Circuit is a plus. The park in San Francisco, which favors hurlers, is a big advantage over his former home in Chicago. Samardzija also thinks he was tipping his pitches. “It was a pretty quick fix. We made the adjustment in the bullpen and went from there and finished strong the last two games.” The Giants hope that is accurate. Look, Samardzija throws hard, his heater was 94.3 mph last season and according to PITCHf/x data was 12th in baseball. He kept throwing strikes last season walking only 2.06 batters per nine innings. That leaves him with a 1.91 BB/9 rate the last two years which just so happened to be the 15th best mark in the game. There were two huge negatives last year though. (1) His strikeout rate tanked. JS racked up an 8.83 K/9 mark from 2011-14. Elite level stuff. Last season that mark plunged to 6.86 per nine. That’s scary, tipping pitches or not. The big loss last season was with his slider. Jeff’s K% last on the pitch was 18.8 percent (K% = K/PA). In each of the previous three seasons the mark was at least 27.6 percent. He simply wasn’t able to put batters away with the pitch. He will need to recapture that. (2) Samardzija had a 1.53 GB/FB ratio in 2013. In 2014 that mark went up to 1.64. Last season it plummeted to 0.98. The extra fly balls led directly to a 1.22 HR/9 mark, a five year high despite having a HR/F ratio two tenths under his 11.0 career average. The move to SF should help the homer mark. As for the grounders, that loss is vexing and scary. Blame the slider which, for the first time, just didn’t work (he posted a -6.6 in the slider above average category, his first time under 5.2 in five years, a catastrophic fall). Still, great arm, good park, and young enough to rebound (31 in January).

Drew Smyly, let’s just say I’m a fan. I wrote this Player Profile about him last season. Unfortunately Smyly was placed on the DL May 6th with shoulder soreness which turned out to be a damaged labrum. Surgery was possible, but he chose to rehabilitate instead. It worked, and by mid-August he was back out on the field. All told he made just 12 starts but the results impressed as he had a 3.11 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 77 punchouts in 66.2 innings. That’s great work. In fact, since the start of the 2014 season his numbers are dang impressive; 219.2 inning Smyly won 14 games with a 3.20 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with an 8.60 K/9 mark. The numbers improve further if we take a look just at his work with the Rays: 8-3, 2.52 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 over 19 starts (114.1 innings). My only real concern is his health. Here are the innings pitched marks for the 26 year old the past few years: 2012 (117 innings), 2013 (76), 2014 (153) and 2015 (89.1).

Yordano Ventura threw his fastball 95.6 mph last season according to PITCHf/x. The only hurler who tossed 162 innings last season who threw harder was Garrett Richards (95.7). It’s easy heat, the ball just jumps out of his hand, and the result has been an improving strikeout mark each season (the rate was 6.46 per nine as a rookie, 7.82 as a sophomore and 8.60 last season). His walk rate is just league average, it was 3.20 last season, and that’s his big bugaboo. He needs to throw more strikes by trusting his stuff. He doesn’t need to nibble. Just rear back and fire kid. When he does throw strikes not only does he rack up strikeouts but he also generates tons of grounders. Last season he had a career best 52.2 ground ball rate and the mark is 49.7 percent for his career. His ground ball rate was 14th in baseball and led to a 1.92 GB/FB ratio. I say it all the time, or at least I try to, give me strikeouts, grounders and no walks. Ventura scores two out of three on that table. His 4.08 ERA last season should have been lower, SIERA and xFIP suggest in the 3.60 range. Now, if he can just cut the walks a bit, maybe half a point, and keep his temper in control (no one wants to be compared to Carlos Zambrano) success will follow.