Player Profile: Francisco Lindor Will Disappoint in 2016

Francisco Lindor was an outright superstar in the fantasy game during the second half of the 2015 season on his way to finishing second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting as a 22-year-old. Most will expect similar production in 2016. Many will expect improvement in 2016. Few will expect regression. Consider this author to be in the minority with Lindor heading into the company campaign (that means I’m in the third category).

BACKGROUND

Lindor is an elite all-round talent and was considered a future All-Star caliber player by everyone. Just take a look at his preseason ranking the last four seasons by three major sources (rankings amongst all players in the minors).

That’s correct. Heading into last season he was a top-10 prospect in all three scouting departments’ eyes.

“So Ray, why are you down on him?”

I’ll get back to that in a moment.

Let’s take a look at Lindor’s offensive production each year in the minors starting in 2011 when he was 17-years-old.

2011 (Low-A): He appeared in five games.

2012 (Single-A): Lindor saw action in 122 games. He hit .257 with a solid .352 OBP but a mere .355 SLG. He was able to steal 27 bases in 39 attempts while driving six balls into the seats with 83 runs scored.

2013 (High-A, Double-A): He played 104 games with 21 at Double-A. Lindor hit .303 with a .380 OBP and .407 SLG. He hit only two homers and saw his steal total dip a wee bit to 25.

2014 (Double-A, Triple-A): In 126 games, 38 at Triple-A, Lindor hit .275 with a .338 OBP and .389 SLG. He hit 11 homers, a minor league best, while stealing 28 bases (though he was caught 16 times).

2015 (Triple-A): He saw action in 59 games before being called to the bigs. He hit .284 with a .350 OBP and .402 SLG. He hit two homers, drove in 22 runners and was successful on just nine of 16 steal attempts.

Let’s look at his minor league work in total.

Lindor appeared in 416 minor league games accruing 1,880 plate appearances.

Did he show a power stroke? No. He hit a total of 21 homers in 1,648 at-bats. The resulting .384 SLG was awful. The major league average last season was .405, by the way.

Does he have stolen base speed? Yes he does. However, he gets caught an awful lot. Lindor has 90 steals while being caught 42 times. That led to a 68.1 percent success rate. The major league average last season was 69.7 percent. Studies have shown you don’t have a success rate of 67 percent you are actually hampering a team’s ability to score runs. 

Lindor posted a solid .354 OBP during his minor league career. That’s a good mark.

It’s also solid that we find a BB/K ratio of 0.70. That’s nearly double the league average which was 0.39 last season.

Further, his contact rate was 84 percent. The big league average last season was 78 percent. A contact rate over 80 percent is supportive of the batting average he posted.

SCOUTING THOUGHTS

Scouts rate players on a 20-80 scale. I know, I know, but that’s what scouts have always used. Here’s a key.

20-40: deficient
40-50: average
50-60: solid (above average)
60-70: all-star levels
70-80: elite with anything 75 and up suggesting Hall of Fame skills

A good player’s card is often filled with a lot of 50-60 marks with very few players ever reaching a grade of 70 in any skill.

Here’s a snapshot on Lindor and his marks heading into the 2015 season:

Hit tool: 50-60
Power: 35-45
Base running: 50-60
Glove: 70-75
Arm: 60-65

As I discussed above, no one looks at Lindor as a power hitter. He has gained some weight and his lower body is starting to fill out, so there is some reasonable hope that his power will grow a bit as he ages. The overall hit tool is solid as well. He understands the strike zone, has good pitch recognition, has good bat control and plus bat speed. There’s a lot to like. As for the wheels, he has the speed to steal 20 bases in the bigs (I also broke that down above).

However, the standout tool he owns is his glove. It’s elite, off the charts, dynamic kind of stuff. We could care less about that in the fantasy game. And this is one of the rubs I have with Lindor and his outlook in the baseball community. Remember when I listed above that he was an elite prospect? The real reason for that is his defense. Yes, his bat is solid and projects as a well above average weapon, but it’s his defense which sets him apart and makes him the jewel of the baseball community. Don’t forget that we’re talking about Lindor the baseball player with these rankings, not Lindor the fantasy weapon.

Some scouting thoughts.

John Sickels from June last year:  “His main fantasy asset is the fact that he'll be in the lineup, but if your fantasy context doesn't have a way to account for defense, Lindor's value will be limited. That's in the short term. In the long term, I suspect that Lindor can develop into a better hitter than most people currently expect… He isn't going to be a 20-homer guy, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him hit 10-15 homers per season at maturity, with a respectable number of doubles and above-average batting averages and OBPs.”

Bernie Pleskoff from February last year: “A gifted athlete, defensively, Lindor is ready for prime time. The only issue may be his bat. He may need additional repetition against quality pitching at the highest level of the Indians organization…The added bonus may be emerging pop in his bat that could take him from hitting doubles to more home runs along the way.”

2015 BIG LEAGUE PERFORMANCE

Francisco Lindor appeared in 99 games with the Indians last season. He picked up 390 at-bats and 438 plate appearances.

Lindor hit .313 with the Indians in 2015. As we have seen, he never hit that high at any point during his minor league career. It’s also highly dubious that Lindor will be able to sustain the .348 BABIP he posted with the Indians. That’s an unusually high mark, only 17 full-time players were able to better it last season, and over the course of minor league career his BABIP was a strong but still well below his mark last season at .318. Lindor also posted a line drive rate of 20.6 percent with the Indians. On its own that is a perfectly acceptable mark that causes no level of concern. However, when placed in the context of his career minor league mark of 16 percent we should be somewhat concerned.

Not surprisingly, Lindor’s vaunted plate discipline also took a bit of a step back, not surprising for a young player in the big leagues. After posting a 0.70 BB/K ratio in the minors that mark dipped to an exact match for the league average of 0.39. The fact is that Lindor was never thought of as a lock to hit .300 at the big leagues. It would be very wise to expect a significant pull back in his batting average in 2016. Chances are that his batting average will be closer to his minor league mark (.279) than his 2015 mark with the Indians (.313).

Lindor hit 12 homers for the Indians. Recall that Lindor’s minor league high for homers was 11. He hit a homer every 78.4 at-bats on the farm. With the Indians he hit a homer every 32.5 at-bats. That alone should set off alarm bells. Couple that fact with the scouting community’s thoughts about his power stroke and you should be far from convinced that a 20-homer season is coming in 2016. In fact, a run to 15 home runs might not even be a lock. Further, Lindor had a 51-percent ground ball rate last season and a 29-percent fly ball rate (the league average fly ball rate last season was 34 percent). It’s very hard to be a significant homer bat when you lift the ball so infrequently. Look at his minor league work. His time in the lesser leagues produced a 6.1 percent HR/F ratio. As an Indian that mark was 13.0 percent. See why you should be expecting regression, rather than growth, in the homer category?

Lindor stole 12 bases in 14 attempts with the Indians. I have no issue with that level of production. Legit and sustainable.

CONCLUSION

Lindor will be successful in 2016. Alas, he will be drafted by most as if he’s a fantasy star. He’s not. It’s highly probable that his batting average will fall, ditto his homer pace (there will be zero growth in either category). Book it. If he sticks in the No. 2 hole in the order, he hit there 85 times last season, then he should get on base enough to be a strong middle infield option in runs scored and steals. Really, though, it’s all about cost with Lindor. If you have to pay full value you should pass. Lindor is not a top-five play at shortstop. He might not even end the year as a top-10 play at the position, though the position is blah enough that it’s alright if you toss him in that mix. What it all means is that you’re probably better off letting someone else roster Lindor for 2016. He’s going to disappoint based on the lofty expectations of most.