2015 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Shane Greene

Who will be the Corey Kluber of 2015? It's a question I get nearly every day. I often get it more than once a day. The back story for those of you that don't know. Last year I predicted that Kluber would come out of nowhere and have a big season. He did. And then some. People now expect me to pull another rabbit out of my hat. It's certainly not fair to expect me to name any guy as a potential Kluber in 2015. Hell, as much as I loved Kluber I would have called you bonkers if you had predicted the numbers he posted on the way to the AL Cy Young award. So that's the caveat. Whether it's Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana or Shane Greene - pitchers on three separate tiers (only injury holding him back, solid for three years, or out of nowhere) - expecting anyone to go Kluber on batters is nuts. But if we're talking about an out of nowhere arm who could surprise - guys like Cobb and Quintana are known quantities whereas Kluber really wasn't last season - let's go with Shane Greene.

THE MINORS

2009: Taken in the 15th round by the Yankees in the Entry Draft. As a 20 year old he appeared in 13 games lasting 23 innings. He posted a 5.87 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP an a 3.33 K/BB ratio at Rookie Ball.

2010: Pitched at Low and Single-A. He made 14 starts with a 4.59 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 66 punchouts over 68.2 innings. 

2011: Appeared in 27 games at Single-A. Went a mere 5-14 with a 4.37 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 128 punchouts in 138 innings.

2012: Threw pitches at High-A going 4-7 with a 5.22 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 101 strikeouts over 112 innings. 

2013: He won 12 games against 10 loses at High-A and Double-A. Posted the best ERA to date with a 3.38  mark, and his WHIP was 1.33. Continued to strike batter out with an 8.0 K/9 mark, the 4th straight year he'd been at that mark.

2014: Made 13 starts (15 outings) at Triple-A. He went 5-1 with a 4.64 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 57 strikeouts over 66 innings.

TOTALS: 29-43, 4.39 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 over 562 innings.

THE MAJORS

2014: Made 15 outings, 14 starts, for the Yankees. He posted a 3.78 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and had 81 strikeouts in 78.2 innings of action. Allowed only eight homers on the year. 

December 5, 2014: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the New York Yankees to the Detroit Tigers. The Detroit Tigers sent Domingo Leyba (minors) and Robbie Ray to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Arizona Diamondbacks sent Didi Gregorius to the New York Yankees.

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THE SKILLS

Shane Greene is 26 years old, he throws right handed, and he's no small fella (he stands 6'4" and weighs 200 lbs). He's also appeared in just 15 big league games, was a 15th round draft pick, and will be pitching for a new team in Detroit this season. So why does the Oracle think Greene should be the last arm you target to round out your staff in 2015?

First off the obvious. He's got good stuff. Over the course of his professional career he's nearly struck out a batter per inning, and that includes the 9.27 mark he posted for the Yankees last season over 78.2 innings (81 strikeouts). That's a good start. How does he generate those strikeouts? He throws hard. Greene tossed his heater an average of 93 mph last season. He also threw the pitch 52 percent of the time according to Baseball Info Solutions, but that's only a piece of the story. While talking about pitch types, let's break down the whole repertoire. Here are the percentage of pitches thrown in 2014 by the righty according to BIS (velocity in parenthesis).

Fastball: 52 percent (93.1 mph)
Slider: 18 percent (82.1 mph)
Cutter: 26 percent (87.4 mph)
Change up: 4 percent (86.7 mph)

Now this is where things get a little interesting. While BIS says he throws four pitches, PITCHf/x data suggests he throws six. Here is that data.

4-seam fastball: 12 percent 
2-seam fastball: 38 percent
slider: 27 percent 
curve ball: 18 percent
sinker and change up: 5 percent total

For the sake of our discussion it really doesn't matter if he's throwing a cutter/slide/curve ball (hedoes really need to develop the change though as it might be his key to getting lefties out. More on that in a moment). The fact is that he throws all the pitches hard. Then there is this, the most important bit of data. It doesn't matter what he's throwing - no one can lift the ball off him. Here is what you need to know.

(1) Shane Greene had a 48.4 percent ground ball rate from 2011-14 in the minors.

(2) Shane Greene had a 50.2 percent ground ball rate with the Yankees in 2014. Amongst pitchers who threw at least 70 innings that was 55th best in baseball. However, if we require pitches to have thrown at least 70-innings while also making 10 starts then Green comes in 39th.  

But it's not just the ground ball rate that excites me. It's the pitch location for Greene. 

(3) According to Baseball Savant Greene was not just impressive at generating grounders, he was elite at keeping his pitches down in the strike zone.

Let's look at the strike zone. 

As you can see there are 13 total zones. The numbers in blue (1-9) represent the strike zone. Numbers 11 and 12 are obviously outside the strike zone and up while numbers 13 and 14 are out of the strike zone but low. We obviously would like to see a pitcher keep the ball in the strike zone but low (7-9) and if he can keep it down and get guys to chase "his" pitch (13 and 14) then the pitcher is in a great place. Greene was in a great place last season. 

Greene threw 1,352 pitches last season. Among pitchers who threw at least 1,000 pitches there wasn't a single hurler better than Greene at keeping the ball down in the zone. Saying it another way. In 2014 just under 70 percent of all the pitches Greene threw (69.8 percent) were either in zones 7-9 or 13-14. No one threw a higher percent of their pitches at the bottom of the strike zone or outside the strike zone low. He  relentlessly pounded the knees and lower of batters. To reiterate, no one was better (Craig Stammen was the next best hurler who threw at least 1,000 pitches at 66.2 percent). As you can see there are 13 total zones. The numbers in blue (1-9) represent the strike zone. Numbers 11 and 12 are obviously outside the strike zone and up while numbers 13 and 14 are out of the strike zone but low. We obviously would like to see a pitcher keep the ball in the strike zone but low (7-9) and if he can keep it down and get guys to chase "his" pitch (13 and 14) then the pitcher is in a great place. Greene was in a great place last season. 

Let's talk results. Greene allowed eight homers in 78.2 innings, a 0.92 HR/9 mark, thanks to a 12.7 percent HR/F rate. Clearly he needs to keep the ball down in the zone. When it leaks upward he can be taken deep. Luckily for him he rarely allows fly balls (his mark was 28.3 percent last season versus the league average of 34-35 percent). Greene also had an outfield fly ball rate of 26 percent from 2011-14 in the minors. He just doesn't allow many fly balls. 

Moving back to the type of pitches he throws for a moment. According to Brooks Baseball here are the results of his pitches last season.

Here is what I discern from that table. Yes he allowed a .318 batting average on his sinker, but note the following. The Isolated Power mark of .084 on the pitch is tiny (the league average ISO mark last year was .135). Guys didn't even routinely hit a double off the pitch. It was all singles. Point two, the .337 BABIP is suggestive of the Yankees defense not being particularly adept at fielding their position. Things should improve in Detroit, especially if slick fielding Jose Iglesias is over his leg woes.

No matter what he throws, Greene flipping dominated righties with his repertoire of pitches. Check out his strikeout rate against righties of 11.77 per nine (with a 31.1 percent K-rate). That's a massive number. He also kept the walks in check with a mark of 2.54 per nine and his wOBA against righties was exceedingly impressive at .297.

That must mean he struggled a bit versus lefties. He did. Not only did his K/9 rate drop to 6.81 but his walk rate jumped to 4.08 per nine. His xFIP also went from 2.61 versus righties to 4.17 against portsiders. He simply has to do a better job against those lefties. At least lefties didn't power the ball very well against him with a .400 SLG. He just doesn't have that put away pitch at the moment against lefties. At least it's lefties and not righties that he has some issues with.

The final issue are those walks. As noted he performed well against righties with a 2.54 BB/9 mark, it was those lefties and the 4.08 rate that was the issue. Dating back to his time in the minors it's clear that Greene has never exactly been pinpoint with his pitches and walks will likely continue to be part of his game. But, if he can shave just a bit off the 3.32 per nine rate he posted last season there could be some really good things in his future.

PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

Greene will follow David Price, Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez in the Tigers rotation. He might end up as the 5th starter, the team could go with Alfredo Simon in the fourth slot, but regardless of the spot the plan is for the Tigers to run Greene out there 30 times in 2015. 

CONCLUSION

Let me once again reiterate the obvious. Shane Greene will not win the AL Cy Young award. Even though I correctly predicted a breakout for Corey Kluber last season, there's no way I expected him to be the breakout superstar pitcher in baseball. Greene is a shot in the dark. Many in your league won't know what team he is on, let alone his name, when you call it out on draft day. You won't have to reach for Greene in the least as a result as you will almost certainly be able to roster him in the reserve rounds in the overwhelming majority of league. Even if he doesn't go "Kluber" all over everyone - his control is nowhere near as sharp - he's still poised to be a pitcher whose return on investment is massive, given that his draft day cost will be virtually nil.

10 team lg: He's the last guys you take on your roster. The last one. He might also be the first one you cut when injury strikes. I like Greene a lot but again I'm not suggesting he's going 100 percent Kluber on folks in 2015 so don't feel like you have to be married to him in a league this shallow.

12 team lg: A reserve round addition who could pay off big. He's the type of 6/7/8 starter that you should be looking at late.

15 team lg: A late round grab who might be one of your top-9 pitchers depending on how your rotation plays itself out in this size league.  

AL-only: I'm targeting Greene in this format and doing my best to land him. I'm not getting into a massive bidding war per se, but I will be extremely aggressive trying to add the righty.