The Week That Was:  A Critical Look at the 2015 FSTA Expert Draft (Part I)

On January 15, a veritable who’s who of the fantasy baseball world gathered in Las Vegas for the official start of the fantasy baseball season -- the FSTA expert draft.  The Colton and the Wolfman team (Rick Wolf, Stacie Stern and me) drew pick 2 for our attempt to defend our FSTA crown.  How did we do?  Well, over the next couple of articles, I will tell you just that.  This week – a look at our first 10 picks.

Andrew McCutchen:  One cannot win a league in round 1 but one can lose it. They key here (and one we ignored last year) is to get solid safe production.  Cutch fit the bill perfectly.  He has no known risks from age or injury.  As to consistency, he has averaged 25 HR, 21 SB and .319 over the last three years.  Power- check.  Speed – check.  Batting Average protection – check.

Justin Upton:  In round 2, we once again went safe with upside.  In a “down” year last year, Upton hit .270 with 29 HR and 102 RBI with 8 SB.  If we get that again, fine.  However, I think that is a floor for a player in his prime playing for his pay day contract.  For those who worry about Upton in Petco, don’t.  First, the Padres lineup for 2015 is better than the Braves of 2014.  Second, Upton has had success at Petco in his career. Third, Upton is not known for his excuse me dingers.  When he hits them, they fly a long distance – a distance that will carry his shots past the fences at Petco or anywhere else.

David Price: Speaking of safe players in their prime playing for a contract, we spent our third round pick on David Price.  Want safety?  Well, over the last three years, Price has averaged 209 K, a 3.05 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.  Add in the facts that Detroit is a pitcher’s park, the defense will be better with Iglesias at SS and Gose in CF and you have all the makings for a career year.  That said, if he just meets his three year average, this pick will be well worth it.

Jordan Zimmermann:  Our thought process here was lock out two safe as they come, in their prime starters and then maybe spend one of the next 10 picks on a starter while we load up the offense (indeed, that is exactly what we did as we took only one starter between rounds 5 and 15).  JZimm has averaged a 2.93 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the last three years. His 165K average over the last three years is probably low but if we get his three year average, great.  If we get last year at 182 K, 2.66 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, even better.  For those who like the advanced metrics, you will like seeing that his BB rate has reduced each of the last two years and that he was a little unlucky in 2015 as his BABIP was up .29 over 2013 and should at least return to the league average .300.  All in all, the pitching staff has started out strong!

Matt Kemp:   The Rules of Engagement say to avoid paying full price for injury prone players.  Well, Kemp certainly has had his injury issues so why did we spend a 5th round pick on him?  Well, because he is a first round talent.  Thus we got huge upside – first round potential in the fifth round.  In the final four months of 2014, Kemp hit .303 with 20 HR and 74 RBI.  Even that over a full season will be worth the fifth round pick.  Of course, being in his prime at 30, motivated to show the Dodgers they made a mistake in letting him go and the owner of advanced metrics that show no slippage, Kemp could give us that first round value that would make our outfield trio of Cutch, Upton and Kemp pretty sweet.

Starlin Castro:  The S in our SMART system stands for scarcity, i.e., it makes sense to pay full price or even more for a solid producer at a scarce position.  There is no question that SS is scarce.  If you hope to get average, power and speed and do not want to risk Tulo, the pickings are slim.  Castro, while hardly as heralded as Tulo, has averaged double digit HR and SB over the last three years and despite turning 25 in March and already has four .280+ seasons under his belt (and three .290+ seasons).  Loyal readers know that I say this all the time but it bears repeating:  players who make the majors at a very young age (like Castro at 20) are very gifted.  When those players hit 25-26, the market has set their roto value using a baseline performance despite the fact that they have yet to hit their prime.  Castro stands a strong chance of taking his game to another level in 2015 but even if he doesn’t, we got good value at a scarce position.  [Note, the T in SMART stands for team and there is little doubt the Cubs will be better on offense this year so that should also help Castro].

Albert Pujols:   See Kemp, Matt.  Pujols is, at a minimum, a 3rd round value when healthy.  As we reviewed our choices for our 7th pick, there was no way we could pass up Prince Albert.  Yes, he is older and had some injuries, so there is risk.  However, we have a lot of cushion between what we spent and what we could get.  Given that he had a big year last year and that the advanced metrics show little slippage in his game (e.g., contact rate and bb/k rate stable over the last three years), we feel pretty good that we got a steal here in the 7th. 

Brian McCann:  Our fellow experts, many of whom argue against paying scarcity premiums, seemed to do just that when it came to catchers.  Before we selected in the 8th round (pick 103 overall), 8 catchers were off the board including one year wonders such as Yan Gomes and Devin Mesoraco.  Thus, we felt that we better get into the act.  Now in his second year in New York, Brian McCann should be more comfortable and should produce a better all-around season.  That said, given that McCann has hit 20+ HR in 8 of the last 9 years (he hit 18 in the other), we know the power production will be there.  If he hits .232 again, that will hurt.  However, given that he is just 30 and has a career .272 average, there is a pretty fair chance he ups that average substantially.  In addition, the advanced metrics say a batting average correction is coming:  last year’s .233 BABIP says he was unlucky while the improved K rate and Contact rate say the skills are intact.  I think this pick will turn out to be a steal.    

Javier Baez:  While I am very happy with the start of this draft, I think we took a huge risk here.  The upside is enormous but so is the batting average risk.  Why did we take the plunge?  Well, if things work out, we get a 30+ HR hitter at 2b.  If not, this is a shallow league with at least moderate talent on the waiver wire most of the time.  For example, every day starters such as Omar Infante and D.J. LeMahieu remain undrafted.  If Baez hits .240 with big power, we can afford the batting average hit given our other solid average players.  On balance, this was worth the risk but a big risk it was.

Gio Gonzalez:  Last year we won largely by grabbing hard throwing K machines from the NL.  Gio fits that bill.  Yes, he had a bit of a shoulder issue but he made all 5 September starts and went at least 6 in each of them while posting a K per inning and a .80 WHIP.  Gio is in his prime, pitches in a pitcher’s park in weak division and should produce another solid season on the bump.

Final Words:  Stay tuned as next week I will review the middle rounds of the FSTA baseball experts draft.