The Mock Draft Army Opens the 2015 Fantasy Baseball Season
Published: Jan 23, 2015
The Mock Draft Army kicked off its season Thursday night and began laying the foundation for 2015 fantasy baseball ADP with a pair of 12-team, mixed league mock drafts. Recruitment for participation has been both substantial and exciting as both fantasy writers and readers have been eager to get things started. The two drafts were the first or what is expected to be a very busy mock draft season, filled with some of the biggest names in the fantasy game, and the work being done by all will prove to be an extremely valuable tool for you in your upcoming draft preparation.
We’ll cover the first draft here with the second draft write-up coming shortly afterwards. But before we actually get the drafts themselves, allow me to discuss a few of my thoughts about mock drafting and my take on the process of the Army here.
1. Mock drafting should be your way to try out different things. Whether it’s a different strategy or letting players you like slip through to see where they end up going, you need to do things you may not normally do. It’s a great way to see how the draft room reacts to different moves and you never know – you may just learn something new.
2. The mock season has just begun and these initial drafts are more about establishing legitimate ADP numbers and not necessarily about the team with which you finish. We all know about sample size so this should be easy to understand. These early drafts will build the ADP framework from which you’ll work over the next two months, so don’t worry so much when the draft analyzer rates you last at the end. You’re just looking to see who is going where.
3. These drafts and the ADP numbers will see immense change once spring training begins. Injuries and position battles won or lost will alter the landscape of many drafts which is why we start in January. With a base ADP, you’ll be able to follow all the draft trends as they occur and see which players are rising or falling based on public opinion and perception.
4. The fantasy writers and broadcasters are here to teach. Sure, this is a great time for us to learn ourselves and it gives us plenty of fodder about which to write, but we’re also here to share our opinions in the draft. We’ll give our thoughts on players, talk about where players have gone in other drafts and, of course, discuss different strategies you may be interested in trying. If you are in one of these drafts and you don’t ask questions or participate in the discussion, you’re not getting as much out of these drafts as you should.
So with that, let’s take a look at the inaugural draft of the 2015 season..
Mock Draft Army #1
One of the things I noticed about the FSTA draft which took place less than two weeks ago was that 12 starting pitchers were taken in the first four rounds. Considering the fact that the group of experts participating has traditionally stood by the “wait on starting pitching” philosophy, that number seemed high. So in sticking with the first point I made up above, I opted to go into this draft with a pitcher-heavy strategy and see how the rest of the field responded. Rarely have I ever taken a starting pitcher before the fifth round of any draft I’ve done, so this was sure to be interesting.
As a point of reference, here's a link to the first draft's Complete Draft Board (courtesy of Real Time Fantasy Sports)
My First Six Picks
Without concern of what anyone else was doing, I told myself that my first six picks would be pitchers and only pitchers. Normally, I would consider reacting to the way the rest of the draft was going, but I wanted to see exactly what kind of an offense I could put together after establishing the best damn fantasy rotation anyone has seen.
With the fifth pick, I grabbed Clayton Kershaw and the only pitcher to go in between my first and second was Felix Hernandez. I grabbed Max Scherzer next (expectations of a BIG year from him in the NL) and again, only one starter, Madison Bumgarner, went before I took Chris Sale as my third hurler. The field finally started to react with three starters and one closer going before me in the fourth round. I drafted Craig Kimbrel next and then saw Corey Kluber and Kenley Jansen go to close out the round.
Twelve pitchers (10 starters and two closers) in total went in the first four rounds which, to me, worked to my advantage as quality offensive players were left on the board. Had it been a real draft, I probably would have switched to offense, but for the sake of the experiment, I kept it going with selections of Jon Lester and Greg Holland. The field did not bite as hard with only four other pitchers taken by others in fifth and six rounds.
All in all, 18 pitchers were taken in the first six rounds. That’s 25-percent with three teams still not having taken a single pitcher. The FSTA had 20 go in the first six rounds, but they also had one more team. Still right around 25-percent though. Last season, the number was much closer to 20-percent which tells me people are buying into the “Year of the Pitcher” hype.
The Middle Rounds
With the belief that stolen bases can be had much later in the draft, the focus turned to power. Not just any power though. First base and the outfield thinned out dramatically by this point last year, so the positional focus was there. It’s always tough to have to bank on a rebound year, but the players who were left on the board just had far too much upside to ignore. Prince Fielder, Jay Bruce, Mark Trumbo , Wil Myers and Alex Rios were all left by the rest of the drafters and gave me with, in my opinion, a mid-level risk for what could be huge upside. If just three of the five pan out, I’ll have recovered the power I may have missed in the earlier rounds.
Those picks were supplemented with the likes of stable options like Adam LaRoche, Russell Martin (best power years were spent in the AL East) and the always underrated Neil Walker. A touch of speed from Adam Eaton and Shin-Soo Choo and I have a slightly average base which can be augmented with such free agents like Rajai Davis who went undrafted in the 12-team league.
My Final Rounds
The final rounds of any draft should afford you the opportunity to take a few risks and grab some upside. I rounded out my pitching staff with the likes of James Paxton and Danny Duffy, but also grabbed Mike Minor, who I feel is primed for a big rebound. Considering the first six pitchers I took, these picks don’t even need to pan out for me. They should, but I don’t necessarily need them to.
I added another power-rebound hopeful in my second catcher, Jason Castro, and was about to announce Muneori Kawasaki as a placeholder for Jung-Ho Kang, but Fantasy Alarm’s Colby Conway found him deep within the rankings and grabbed him. Undrafted Jed Lowrie was Kawasaki’s replacement.
Strategy Conclusion
The overall availability of the hitters I drafted took me by surprise a little. It’s obviously not the ideal offense, but these are some potentially high-impact players. With my pitching staff, which includes two of the best closers in the game, even if half my offense pans out, I should have a great base for a successful first half and some killer arms to trade. I’d like to say that maybe an early pitcher-heavy strategy isn’t so bad after all, but I’m going to need to test this strategy a few more times before I’m convinced.
Other Thoughts from Around the Draft
I had been touting Michael Brantley for a few years now and happily reaped the benefits of his breakout season last year. However, the question for me is whether or not he can plateau at this 20-20 level or was 2014 the peak and there’s nowhere to go but down? While I think he can come close to repeating, I just don’t see him as a second-round value. I’m definitely a big fan, but if his ADP stays in this area, I’m out.
There were 22 outfielders taken in the first five rounds. That 36.7-percent of the picks. However, as I noted above in the discussion of my draft, the drop-off in talent from there isn’t nearly as steep as it was last season. Just something to keep in mind if you get nervous over outfielders flying off the board.
Watching Lawr Michaels talk about deciding between Yoenis Cespedes and Matt Kemp in the third round would have enlightened me in my first mock, but then to see him still there for Lawr in the fifth was a head-scratcher. Did no one see Kemp’s second half numbers last year? He won’t steal like he used to, but the power is still there. And don’t say Petco, because it’s not like Dodger Stadium is a bandbox.
Dellin Betances went in Round 7 amongst the other high-end closers. However, keep in mind that he has not been given the job. While many expect Betances and his crazy-high strikeout rate to dominate in the ninth inning for the Yankees this year, Andrew Miller, who went in the 23rd round, is supposedly going to handle the left-handed end of the closing duties
The excitement is certainly there for many of the “unproven” commodities, but there didn’t appear to be many reaches, which is moderately encouraging. Gregory Polanco in the 10th round, Javier Baez in the 11th and Yasmany Tomas in the 12th all seemed reasonable. But we say “moderately encouraging” because we know that with a strong spring, all of their ADP will climb to the point where they are no longer considered value picks. Carlos Carrasco in the 12th can join this group as well.
Matt Harvey may have been a phenomenal talent before the surgery, but his selection as the 89th pick is still a bit high for me. It helps for the Blue Bombers that they already had three solid starters ahead of him and aren’t totally reliant on him, but for a pick within the top-100, I’d like more of a sure-thing.
Favorite picks beyond the 15th round include: Dallas Keuchel (17th), Brandon McCarthy (19th), Josh Hamilton (20th), Avisail Garcia (21st), Ken Giles (22nd) and Michael Saunders (23rd)