This week we are going to look into players who, based on their ADP, are currently going lower than they should in drafts. Love/Hate lists have become a big part of the fantasy industry. This week will be the love side of that, with the hate side coming next week, so be sure to tune in for that on July 22. Most of these players are going further down in the draft, and having some guys you can count on with some later picks is very crucial. The names below should be heavily looked at given their current ADP’s and here is why….
Quarterbacks
Blake Bortles (134.2 Yahoo) (150.1 ESPN) (149.36 NFL.com) Is seeing no love as he is currently getting drafted outside of the top-20 of QBs. Was he bad as a real life quarterback last year? Sure, but the fantasy world is a completely different thing. He still finished inside the top-10 of quarterbacks in points despite struggling as bad as he did. Yes, the Jaguars are likely to run the ball more this year with the addition of Leanord Fournette, but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad thing for Bortles. An effective run game could keep the chains moving, and a threat of rushing attack would take some of the pressure off Bortles. Improved play from Allen Robinson should also help Bortles have a bounce back campaign as Robinson had his own struggles after a stellar 2015 season, as his catch % dropped nearly 5%. Bortles should play at a higher level this season and there is no reason to think he won’t at the least finish inside the top-15 of quarterbacks, with top-10 upside.
Carson Wentz (129.2 Yahoo) (132.7 ESPN) (144.84 NFL.com) Was far from fantastic as a fantasy quarterback last season in his rookie campaign. However, now with a year of experience under his belt and the addition of playmaking WR Alshon Jeffery, there are reasons to expect improvement. Of course Jeffery will need to stay healthy for Wentz to take advantage of his playmaking ability, which is far from a sure thing. Adding Jeffery also slides Jordan Matthews to the #2 WR spot which is somewhere his talents fit better. Matthews is a solid receiver, but far from a #1 and did not perform well going up against opposing teams best cornerbacks. Wentz adds a nice dimension on the ground and should easily cross the 20 tocuhdown passing plateau this season. He is currently being drafted outside the top-20 for quarterbacks. He should be able to make his way inside that range with upside to be inside the top-15.
Running Back
Mike Gillislee (80.0 Yahoo) (78.3 ESPN) (100.88 NFL.com) Has me baffled to see how low he is going. Currently going outside the Top-25 at the RB position is just not something I understand. Here’s a bold prediction: Mike Gillislee will finish as a top-5 RB. Yes you read that right, and no I am not a Pats fan. Of course I don’t see him being above Johnson, Bell, or Zeke but after that, it is in the realm of possibilities. This is a guy who has averaged 5.7 yards per carry the last two years over nearly 150 carries. Last year that was good enough to lead the league among RBs with 100+ attempts on the ground. He also put up eight rushing touchdowns as a BACKUP running back for the Bills. Now he moves over to the Patriots to occupy the role that LeGarrette Blount had last year. Blount finished the season with 18 touchdowns on the ground with 1161 yards, averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt. Even if Gillislee drops his average per attempt down over a whole yard to 4.4 that would still be over 1300 yards on the same volume Blount had. Blount also had just 7 receptions in 2016 a number Gillislee should easily have 15+ in this year. He will be a touchdown machine in the Patriots high-powered offense. He also has just one fumble in his entire career so it is unlikely that he will land in that Bill Belichick fumble dog-house. Yes it will be his first season as a featured back, so there is reason to be skeptical, but what is not to love about this guy at these absurdly low ADP’s?
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen (46.9 Yahoo) (45.1 ESPN) (68.44 NFL.com) I can see why he is going as low as he is, given the back to back seasons of missing big chunks of games with major injuries. That being said, if you take the risk at his current ADP and he stays healthy, it will be a great pick. Allen is an exceptional talent, and would likely surpass 1200+ yards in a full season of games. Last season only five players hit that mark of yards, and Allen is currently being drafted outside the top-20 of WRs. There is also a chance he could slide even further in your drafts, depending on your league member’s thoughts on injury prone players. He is currently going pretty well after Sammy Watkins, who has his own injury concerns and plays in an offense that will limit his talents. When taking the risk on Allen it is best to also try and grab a Tyrell Williams or Mike Williams; who would see increased targets/action on offense if Allen were to go down with injury again. You can also draft him and after he performs well in a few games, try to trade him for high value, and dump the injury risk.
Martavis Bryant (89.3 Yahoo) (65.9 ESPN) (94.55 NFL.com) This guy is a freakish athlete and explosive weapon for the Steelers offense. The suspension concerns have him going lower in drafts, and rightfully so, but the upside at his current ADP (excluding ESPN) is exceptional. If he can stay off the drugs and stay on the field, he will likely surpass the 1000 yard mark and could catch 8-12 TDs. In 2015, the last season he played, he had 765 yards with 6 touchdowns in just 11 games. If you had the chance to check out the article “2017 NFL Fantasy Football Bold Predictions” you would see I had him as my comeback player this season, which is fully a possibility, if he stays on the field and makes use of his incredible talents. Of course there is the risk of him being caught again and being suspended all season (Look at Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon) but at his current ADP the upside is well worth the risk.
Kelvin Benjamin (87.8 Yahoo) (74.5 ESPN) (95.78 NFL.com) Is going outside the top-30 among WR, which is simply far too low. In the two seasons he has played in the NFL Benjamin has averaged 68 receptions, 975 yards, and 8 touchdowns. That in itself is enough to make this guy worthy of being a top-30 selection at his position. He now has a full year of playing post-ACL surgery under his belt and should be more comfortable and stronger this season. This is a big receiver who sees a high number of Red Zone targets and does a nice job of reeling them in (53% catch rate). Benjamin could be in for his first 10+ touchdown season, a mark that only had five members last season. At his current ADP Benjamin makes for a strong selection in standard leagues and a nice safe selection in PPR leagues.
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Tight End
Eric Ebron (123.7 Yahoo) (131.9 ESPN) (131.77 NFL.com) Has the talent and athletic ability to be a top-tier TE. He is currently getting drafted in the 13-16 range of TE’s on the different sites, making him a great upside selection at his ADP. Yes, he has yet to put it all together for a stellar season, but he has made progress in his career. His yard totals, receptions, and targets have improved each year, and he will likely get to the 4-8 touchdown range this season after catching just one last season. The departure of Anquan Boldin will lead to far more Red Zone targets for Ebron, as Boldin led the Lions in both targets inside the 20 and Inside the 10, during the 2016 season. Ebron is also in a contract year, which makes for a big season frequently, as guys chase that big payday. He does suffer nagging injuries, but has still played 13+ games in all three of his NFL seasons to this point. If he can hit that same mark of games played, he will finish inside the top-10 at his position and will be a nice fantasy asset.
Defense
Jacksonville Jaguars (140.7 Yahoo) (139.4 ESPN) (146.54 NFL.com) If you checked out the article “2017 NFL Fantasy Football Bold Predictions” you will know that I had the Jaguars listed as my favorite fantasy DST for this season. It’s not that I believe they will be the best fantasy defense, but more so where you can get them in the draft, that really makes me love them. I am not a big fan of using an early round selection on the likes of a Denver or Seattle, when a team like the Jags can be acquired much later. They added star DL Calais Campbell to their line, who will be both a strong talent and leader for the team. Youngsters Jalen Ramsey, Telvin Smith, Myles Jack, Dante Fowler Jr, and Yannick Ngakoue all have another year under their belt and should all be improved players. The offense also plans to both run more and more effectively this season which will eat time off the clock and give the defense more rest in between defensive series. This should mean fewer points against and improved overall play. They should finish as a top-10 defense and right now only ESPN players are drafting them inside the top-13 of defenses.
Player News
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports there are “multiple people in the league who believe the new regime is not so high on Travis Etienne.”
Fowler also noted Tank Bigsby’s fumbling issue but didn’t directly relate that to the feelings of the new brain trust in Jacksonville. The Jags clearly felt they were lacking at running back this offseason and addressed that opening via the draft with Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round and LeQuint Allen in the seventh. The pair of additions complicate an already-messy backfield by committee. Etienne is entering the final year of his rookie deal and is a long-shot to be brought back in 2026. The Jags could opt to move on early by trading him, clearing $6.1 million in cap space in the process. If the team does trade Etienne, Tuten would likely be the team’s top back in the long run, making him a high-upside bet in early fantasy drafts.
Broncos signed third-round pick WR Pat Bryant to a four-year contract.
The deal includes $1.4 million guaranteed and is worth $6.6 million in total. Sean Payton compared aspects of Bryant’s game to those of Michael Thomas in his post-draft press conference and there are at least a few similarities in their profiles. Bryant stands at 6'2/204 and ran a 4.61-second Forty at the combine. Thomas measured in at 6'3/212 and clocked a 4.57-second Forty. Though the two have similar physical characteristics, Thomas was known for his proficiency from the slot while Bryant primarily played on the outside as a field-stretcher at Illinois. Bryant’s transition to slot duties may take some time, but third-round draft capital makes him worth a shot in dynasty leagues.