We wrap up Week 17 with a matchup from the NFC as the San Francisco 49ers host the Detroit Lions. When the 2024 NFL schedule was released, this game had a lot of appeal for the Week 17 window, especially for those drafting in Best Ball contests. 

On paper, it looked like a potential NFC Championship preview. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be as injuries piled up early and often for the 49ers and they’ve been eliminated from playoff contention. But there’s still potential for a fun game with a decent amount of offense. 

With that said, let’s take a look at our Lions vs. 49ers DFS picks for the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Lions vs. 49ers Game Preview

Given how the Sunday games played out, this game actually doesn’t mean anything to the Detroit Lions. The Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. So even if the Lions lose this game tonight, next week’s matchup against Minnesota will be the deciding factor for the NFC North and the top seed in the NFC playoff picture. 

It’s weird to say that a Week 17 matchup doesn’t matter, while a game in Week 18 does. But no one expects a team coached by Dan Campbell to just go out there and lie down for their opponent. In a potential blowout? Sure, maybe he starts pulling his starters later in the second half. But we should expect the Lions to give it their all this week.

Detroit has taken a beating of late and the injuries are piling up at the worst time. David Montgomery suffered a lower body injury in Week 15 so Jahmyr Gibbs will once again shoulder most of the workload out of the backfield. But defensively they’re taking a beating and missing several key pieces. More recently the team saw Carlton Davis, Khalil Dorsey, and Alim McNeill hit the IR.

The hometown 49ers surprisingly sit at the bottom of the NFC West with a 6-9 record and not too many people saw that coming at the start of the season. The team is 1-5 over their last six games and have several questions to answer in the offseason. A lot of talk has been made about this team’s Super Bowl window and how it’s likely closed.

For as talented as Christian McCaffrey is, this season was a disaster in terms of injury management (and reporting, for that matter) as he appeared in just a handful of games and he didn’t make his first start until November. The team locked up Brandon Aiyuk in the offseason to a big contract and he went down with injury early on. 

Dre Greenlaw came back after tearing his achilles in the Super Bowl, but the team has announced their shutting him down for the rest of the year. De’Vondre Campbell, viewed as a fix/replacement for Greenlaw, apparently quit mid-game on the team after refusing to enter a game a couple weeks ago. He’s since been suspended by the team.

Everything that could have gone wrong for the 49ers, did go wrong. And they head into the offseason with a lot of personnel questions at several positions and the question remains as to what they do with Brock Purdy, as he only has one year left on his rookie deal. 

But for now, we shift our focus to just this evening’s game. Here are tonight’s Lions vs. 49ers DFS picks for the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook!

 

 

 

Lions vs. 49ers MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Lions: -3.5 (-102)
  • Money Line:
    • Lions (-192)
    • 49ers (+160)
  • Game Total: Over 50.5 (-110) / Under 50.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Lions -3.5 (+100)
  • Money Line:
    • Lions (-188)
    • 49ers (+158)
  • Game Total: Over 50.5 (-110) / Under 50.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Lions vs. 49ers MNF, December 30th

As of Monday morning, the current forecast for this game calls for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-50’s right around kickoff. There is no significant threat of rain, but temps will cool off slightly as the game progresses. Sustained winds will likely stay below 10mph for this NFC matchup.

Lions vs. 49ers Notable Injuries & Inactives

Officially, only David Montgomery and Kalif Raymond have been ruled out by the Detroit Lions. But if you’d like to see the full list of Detroit players on IR, then click here and just scroll down to the “Reserves” section.

The San Francisco 49ers have ruled out Charvarius Ward, Aaron Banks, Robert Beal Jr., Spencer Burford, and Dre Greenlaw. There are a few players listed as questionable but the big one was Isaac Guerendo who managed to log a full practice session on Saturday and he seems poised to play this evening.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 12/30

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions - DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $15,000

Gibbs will likely be the most popular player for the latest NFL DFS Showdown slate. With David Montgomery sidelined he should be in for another big workload. Last week he had 27 total touches and he has 268 total yards in his last two games with three touchdowns.

Quite simply, the volume is tremendous in this spot and he should get 20+ touches once again. On a full PPR site like DraftKings, we value involvement in the passing game and Gibbs has 15 receptions over his last three games with at least 30 receiving yards in those matchups. The over on his 27.5 receiving yards prop is looking rather friendly especially with the 49ers allowing the seventh most yards after catch to opposing running backs.

As far as the ground game is concerned, the 49ers are hurting bad enough where they’ve allowed 153 rushing yards per game over their last five matchups so this is a spot where Gibbs can really put up a monster score if all goes well.

Isaac Guerendo, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $10,500

Guerendo is trending towards playing after being a full participant in Saturday’s practice. The 49ers system is so effective that whoever you plug in there at running back is bound to have a good game unless his name is Patrick Taylor

Guerendo has flashed upside a few times this week. Back in Week 8, when Jordan Mason was hurt, he had 14 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown while adding three receptions as well. In Week 14 against the Bears, he had 78 rushing yards on 15 carries while adding a pair of touchdowns and two receptions. 

In Week 15, prior to getting hurt, he had 57 rushing yards but also had four receptions. So, they do get him involved enough and I do think he has upside for 15+ touches. We also had a subscriber in our Discord last week inquire about the Lions run defense and I tried looking for my long-winded answer (to no avail) but while the Lions look good on paper, we should remember that they have given up some touchdown production on the ground. 

They were torched for 197 yards on the ground by the Buffalo Bills, but they also yielded three touchdowns to Josh Jacobs in short yardage situations in Week 14. And they had to put Alim McNeill on IR so this could be a sneaky spot for Guerendo to put up 20+ fantasy points. 

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $11,000

This game is fun from a lineup construction perspective because the mid-range has some great options that can pop off. And we know Jennings certainly can have huge games. Back in Week 3 he popped off for 175 yards and three touchdowns against the Rams. In Week 11 he had 10 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks. 

And in Week 14, against the Bears, he had seven catches for 90 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Funny enough, those three games represent all his touchdown production this year. So there’s boom/bust potential here. But on a Showdown slate that’s where I’ll take that risk with this kind of monstrous upside. Despite all the injuries to Detroit’s defense they’re still using a lot of man coverage. 

Jennings touts a 27% TPRR and 2.45 YPRR against man coverage. He’s 144 yards away from his first career 1,000-yard season so while that’s tough to do in one game, he has the upside and the matchup is perfect for him as he gets outstanding separation against man coverage.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $10,000

On paper, this is clearly a better matchup for Jennings over Deebo. Jennings is great at separation especially against man coverage. Deebo has had his struggles getting separation. So why Deebo over George Kittle?

Well both are coming off big games, but the 49ers finally got Deebo going last week against the Miami Dolphins. That’s not to say Kittle had a bad game (because he didn’t), but the 49ers were more creative with Deebo and he had a dozen touches last week. Yes, the running back room was a bit depleted, but he can earn a $150,000 bonus if he gets two more rushing touchdowns this season.

A lot of Deebo’s receiving props are a little suppressed as well. I’m seeing props as low as 4.5 receptions and 48.5 receiving yards. Even his anytime touchdown prop is at +175 and that seems a little friendly given that the 49ers still have an implied team total of 23.5 points. Perhaps he’s a better player to bet on than he is for a DFS play but I’m optimistic he can have a big game against this beat up secondary.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $14,000

It does pain me to place ARSB in this section, but you can absolutely roster him at Captain/MVP. My one concern is that we are forced to pay top dollar for him. That’s totally fine if he can do what he did in Week 15 against the Bills where he went for 14 catches on 18 targets for 193 yards and a touchdown. But in four of his last five games, he’s seen eight or fewer targets and failed to crack 20 fantasy points on DraftKings.

He provides a relatively safe floor and has two 40+ point performances on DK since Week 11. But the matchup is ripe for Gibbs and I have concerns that Detroit just tries to get in and get out of this game without any injuries. The 49ers are a tough matchup as they only allow 183.3 passing yards per game, which is third fewest in the NFL, and teams throw on San Francisco at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL (29.8 attempts per game). 

For this reason, I’m not going to write up Jared Goff in this article because passing volume could be down, but I have to at least acknowledge that he’s been on fire the last three games with over 1,100 passing yards and 11 touchdowns. It’s just so easy to run on this defense that it feels perfect for Gibbs to put up a much larger score than his teammate(s).

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $14,500

It probably seems odd that I’m going with Purdy over Goff in this game based on how things have shaken out over the last handful of games for both players. But we already alluded to the fact that opposing offenses don’t throw often on San Francisco because their defense cannot stop the run. And again, a blowout in favor of either team could lead to Detroit pulling a few players late to preserve their health for a much more meaningful game in Week 18.

I’ve mentioned a few of Purdy’s teammates and pass catchers up top in the MVP/Captain section, so I’m inclined to roster Purdy at the flex for correlation. In two of his last four games he’s hit the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings and he had a pair of touchdowns in both those outings. Now to be fair, in the other two games in this four-game sample size, he didn’t even return double-digit fantasy points.

There are certainly some inconsistencies here, but I believe this is a game where the 49ers can contend and hang with this defense due to all the injuries that are mounting up for Detroit.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

The pricing is manageable on both DraftKings and FanDuel and there will be some that inquire as to his status as a Captain or MVP play. You can play at your own risk, but I’m just reading the tea leaves. Detroit plays a lot of man coverage (about 40%) and Kittle has typically been better against defenses that rely more on zone. The Lions also haven’t allowed a tight end to go over 70 receiving yards all season.

Kittle is still having a great year and you have to imagine Brock Purdy knows that his tight end is only 33 yards away from 1,000 yards. Adding to that, the Lions are beat up defensively. They have quite a few linebackers on IR at the moment (Alex Anzalone, Malcolm Rodriguez, and Derrick Barnes) and the secondary took some beatings last week. I’ll be playing him at flex in most of my lineups due to the coverage matchup simply not working in his favor. 

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $11,500

Williams is always a risky play because of his boom/bust nature. And I will reiterate that I have my concerns about the Lions passing game Monday night. But in four of his last five games, he has exactly five receptions. Over his last 10 games he’s averaging 18 yards per reception.

He’s found the end zone in back-to-back games and he’s 110 yards away from 1,000 yards on the season. Passing volume might be low for the Lions later this evening, but it’s so hard to write off a guy like Williams given his upside. In five of his 11 games this season, he’s recorded at least one reception for 50+ yards, and he’s taken some to the house as well.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $9,500

We usually reserve this section for players that are truly value plays, not guys lingering in the fringe low-end mid-tier. But LaPorta, in comparison to everyone else on the late, is a nice discount for a player who has returned double-digit fantasy points on DraftKings in four straight games.

He has six targets in six straight games with four touchdowns in that span. Now I know our resident tight end guru, Andrew Cooper, may not like me recommending a tight end against the 49ers. But De’Vondre Campbell has been suspended for the rest of the year. Dre Greenlaw’s return was short lived, and he’s shut down for the season. And Fred Warner is playing with a fracture in his ankle. 

LaPorta had a bad start to the season and come season’s end he’ll be considered a draft bust, but he’s been providing more production of late, and I don’t mind paying this price tag, especially on DraftKings, where he might get five catches for 50 yards and a touchdown.

Jake Bates, K, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $5,000 | FanDuel: $9,000

Jake Moody, K, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $9,000

I’m a sucker some good old fashion wordplay so I present to you a joint write-up for our kickers this evening in a section I call… “Less Than Jakes” and if you don’t get the band reference than I feel sorry for you.

You have one defense that is severely beat up in this game. And you have another that can’t stop the run. The 49ers are the underdog and even they have an implied team total of 23.5 points while the Lions are at 27 points. And we’ve seen some awful football in Week 17 so I’m hoping this game redeems the championship week with a lot of offense. I’m not excited about rostering either D/ST.

But I do like the kickers at their respective price tags. And when you have an implied game total at 50.5 I’m inclined to play kickers more than defenses.

Bates has returned double-digit fantasy points in five of his last seven games and he correlates very well if playing Gibbs at MVP/Captain. Moreover, the Lions score so many touchdowns that even if you can squeeze two field goals out of him, he can still return 10-12 points with a handful of extra points.

Moody probably doesn’t have as much of a ceiling as Bates does. He also hasn’t returned double-digit fantasy points in his last six games. But again, the Lions defense is beat up in the secondary and on the offensive line. If the 49ers can move the ball effectively, then he should be put in position to put up a good fantasy score.

Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $8,000

We’re reaching that point in the season where teams want to get more of a look at their young players to see what they may have. With the 49ers eliminated from playoff contention, why not get Pearsall more run and opt for more three receiver sets?

He enters Week 17 with back-to-back games with four targets. Moreover, he played 70% of the offensive snaps a week ago, which was the most since he made his NFL debut in Week 7. A trailing game script probably helps him against this broken secondary, but this is a kid who still carries a first-round draft pedigree and he has raw talent and upside.

Craig Reynolds, RB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $7,500

We should be mindful that if this game is a blowout, the Lions won’t need to overwork Gibbs ahead of next week’s matchup for the NFC North crown against Minnesota. So, if Gibbs is relieved late in the game that opens the door for Craig Reynolds. We don’t have much to work with regarding Reynolds and even last week he only touched the ball five times. But this is a game script play because the Lions cannot afford late-game injuries ahead of next week’s game.

For the same reason you can also loop in Sione Vaki as well, as he churned out two receptions for 20 yards last week, but he is a preferred punt more on DraftKings than FanDuel.

 

 

 

Lions vs. 49ers DFS Player Pool, 12/30

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