We close out Sunday’s Week 10 action with another inter-conference matchup and we’re hoping it’s a good one in primetime. The Detroit Lions, arguably the best team in the NFC, head South to visit the Houston Texans for Sunday Night Football. The Texans have not quite played like a team that is leading their division of late. They lost Stefon Diggs for the year, haven’t had Nico Collins for a few weeks, and Tank Dell has not looked as good as he was last year. But the luxury of playing in the AFC South is they aren’t seeing much pushback from their division rivals. But a stiff matchup awaits against Detroit. Here are the Lions vs. Texans DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football!

 

 

 

Lions vs. Texans DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 11/10

We’ve had some big-time transactions for both organizations this past week. The NFL Trade Deadline came and went on Tuesday and the Detroit Lions made a big splash bringing in Za’Darius Smith from the Cleveland Browns. Fun fact, there are eight total teams in a “North” division in the NFL: Four AFC North teams, and four NFC North teams. Smith has now played for five of them.

But Smith’s presence bolsters a Lions defense with Super Bowl aspirations. From top-to-bottom the Lions appear to be the most complete team in the league and acquiring Smith is huge because the team lost Aidan Hutchinson a few weeks ago. But all in all, the Lions can beat you in a variety of ways and they’re poised for a deep playoff run.

The Houston Texans have lost two of their last three games. Joe Mixon has been a godsend and has shouldered a heavy workload in games he’s started and finished completely healthy. But the team lost Stefon Diggs for the season and Tank Dell has not returned to looking like the player he was last year. Be mindful for dynasty leagues though, Tony Pollard sustained a similar injury previously and didn’t look the same the following year as well. I’m optimistic Dell looks better in 2025.

The giant elephant in the room for this game will be the status of Nico Collins. Collins has missed the team’s last four games due to a hamstring injury. And we shouldn’t forget how dominant he was when fully healthy earlier this season. And even on the play he did get hurt, it was on a long 67-yard touchdown. The team took the cautious approach and placed him on IR rather than take a weekly approach. That’s the best approach to take with a hamstring injury. These injuries are easy to re-aggravate and they tend to linger. But by putting him on IR they understood they needed to just let this run its course and they didn’t force anything.

 

 

 

Lions vs. Texans SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Lions -3.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Lions (-185)
    • Texans (+154)
  • Game Total: Over 49.5 (-110) / Under 49.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Lions -3.5 (-104)
  • Money Line:
    • Lions (-180)
    • Texans (+152)
  • Game Total: Over 49.5 (-110) / Under 49.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Lions vs Texans SNF, November 10th

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment, so we have zero weather concerns for this matchup.

 

Lions vs Texans Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 10

For the visiting Detroit Lions, the newly acquired Za’Darius Smith is listed as questionable for this matchup but he was a full participant in practice on Friday after not practicing Wednesday and Thursday following the trade. The Lions have already ruled out Taylor Decker, Brodric Martin, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Emmanuel Moseley, and Malcolm Rodriguez.

Will Anderson Jr., arguably Houston’s best defensive player and an elite pass rusher, has been ruled out with an ankle injury he sustained in the team’s Week 9 loss to the New York Jets during Thursday Night Football. Folorunso Fatukasi, Jeff Okudah, Jake Hansen, and Jerry Hughes are also questionable on the defensive side.

Tank Dell is questionable with a back injury, but he is expected to play. The Houston Texans activated Nico Collins off IR. That’s good sign, but not a guarantee that he will play in this game. Reports coming in overnight indicate that he’s still a game time decision.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $15,000

Believe it or not, this is not a smash spot for ARSB. Am I going to play him at Captain? Yes, but I don’t feel entirely confident in the decision. We like the obvious. He is rather efficient, and he gets a decent amount of targets each week. Most importantly, he’s scored in six straight games. For those reasons, and because he’s the WR1 in a potent offense, we should want to plug him in at Captain.

ARSB is averaging a 29% target per route run rate (TPRR) with 2.3 yards per route run (YPRR). But he also lines up in the slot a good amount and the Texans are a tough matchup for slot receivers with just 6.86 yards per attempt and a -6.9% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) per Dataroma. 

Even against 1-High coverage shells, which Houston deploys plenty (57%), St. Brown sees his efficiency dip a little to 25% TPRR, 1.77 YPRR, and he sees just 23% first-read targets.

Now we can assume that with the injuries to Houston’s defense and the fact that Detroit has the best offense in the league, we can take the risk on ARSB in this spot because he may be a leverage play. I won’t argue with you from that point of view, but we shouldn’t assume this is a slam dunk for ARSB.

Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $14,500

Good floor, great ceiling. Wash, rinse, and repeat with Joe Mixon. He was the cover boy for the NFL DFS Showdown Playbook for Week 9’s TNF matchup against the New York Jets. All the arguments we made for him ahead of that game apply here. He gets immense volume, has gone for 100+ rushing yards in four straight games, and he’s found the end zone in four straight contests as well.

Sure, the Lions allow just 106.4 rushing yards per game which is top 10 in the NFL, but they do allow 4.8 rushing yards per attempt which is bottom 10 in the NFL. So by and large, teams have just been forced to abandon the run against the Lions. Mixon won’t be phased out in this game. He should get the usual volume and possibly some involvement in the passing game as well.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

Collins is a phenomenal price on FanDuel. If he never got hurt and was able to play the last few weeks, he would have probably done enough to be the most expensive player on this slate.

Prior to hitting IR, Collins was averaging 0.66 fantasy points per route run which trailed only A.J. Brown and Rashee Rice at the time. Through the first four weeks he saw at least eight targets in each game and may have been heading that way against the Buffalo Bills when he hurt his hamstring. In Weeks 2 and 4 he went off for over 30 fantasy points on DraftKings. That’s basically the ceiling we’re chasing if he’s active for this matchup.

We will be monitoring the status of Collins going into this matchup. If I were in charge of the Houston Texans, I’d sit him this week to avoid aggravating the injury and would get him out there going forward. But if he plays, then we should play him in this spot where Houston should be trailing.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $12,000

David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions - $8,200 | FanDuel: $11,000

In previous NFL DFS Showdown Playbooks, I’ve mentioned these two together, so I’ll take a similar approach for this game. The Lions have the best running back tandem in the NFL. This team runs the ball over 30 times per game while averaging 156.2 yards per game on the ground.

The Lions do a nice job of balancing the workload between Gibbs and Montgomery. Of late, Gibbs has been the bigger provider for fantasy football, but Monty isn’t awful by any means. If you asked me which I prefer, it’s Gibbs but he’s $1,000 more on both sites.

With Will Anderson Jr. inactive for this game, that does help the Detroit running game significantly. And it also helps keep Jared Goff upright even though he has one of the best offensive lines in the league protecting him. Gibbs has four touchdowns in his last three games with the 100-yard rushing bonus in two of those contests. The Texans are also allowing 4.7 yards per attempt on the ground so both Lions running backs are in play to no surprise.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $13,500

For the sake of transparency, the first two players in the core plays section are fringe core plays. We’ll start with Goff. He’s the quarterback for one of the best offenses in the league. They put up points, they’re efficient, he has a great offensive line, and he has weapons at his disposal. 

However, passing volume is low for Goff. And I’m normally a guy that will correlate a quarterback in the flex on Showdown slates if I have a skill position player at Captain. But Goff is pricy and there may be cheaper options that put up more points than he does.

Goff has just one game all year with more than 30 pass attempts and that was way back in Week 2 where he had 55 against Tampa Bay. Since the team’s Bye week he’s averaging just under 22 pass attempts per game. On the season, the Lions rank 30th in the league at 27.4 attempts per game.

The good thing is that Goff is efficient with a 10.16% touchdown rate over his last six games. And it’s worth stating that number is wildly unsustainable. Play at your own risk because this team relies heavily on the run when they’re running up the score.

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $13,000

This one is simple. If Nico Collins is active, Stroud can be viewed as a core play. If Nico Collins is inactive, which I’m hoping is the case for his own health and longevity, then we downgrade Stroud.

Stroud’s efficiency took a huge hit without Nico Collins and it’s only gotten worse with the loss of Diggs. Stroud has lost fumbles in back-to-back games and he has just one touchdown pass over his last three outings.

Can we find a silver lining anywhere? Yes. Because despite the struggles in so many offensive areas, he’s at least throwing the ball more in comparison to Goff. Neither player has particularly been a gem for fantasy football of late, but I do have faith Stroud will throw more than Goff Sunday night.

Against the Detroit Lions, opposing quarterbacks are throwing the ball 38.3 times per game (third-most in the league) and they’re averaging 250.8 passing yards per game (fourth-most in the NFL). This is largely due to organizations trying to keep pace with Detroit. So if Collins is active, that helps Stroud. If he’s out, we lower the optimism on Stroud.

Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $10,500

Dell is arguably a borderline Captain/MVP candidate for this slate. But if we’re talking about the old eyeball test, he isn’t really passing it and he’s struggling to gain the separation he flashed in his rookie year.

But we have to give him credit for what he did against the New York Jets. It was a short week against the best secondary in the league and he caught six-of-nine targets for 126 yards. The return of Collins may actually help Dell, but we saw him do well in one game as the primary pass catcher for Houston.

But again, the separation and route running haven’t been as crisp for Dell this year but he will be called upon down the stretch as Houston makes a playoff push. He is still questionable with a back injury, but there’s much more optimism he plays compared to Collins.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Jameson William, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $10,000

Williams makes his triumphant return after a two-game suspension. The brief absence actually did shed some light on his outrageous efficiency metrics. He saw 20 total targets in Weeks 1 and 2. But in the four games that followed, he saw just nine, but he maintained fantasy relevance because of his play-making ability and touchdown upside.

For season-long fantasy football, we’re pulling our hair out every week trying to decide whether to start him or not. He has four games this year with over 14 fantasy points in full PPR formats. Even in Week 1 he popped for over 100 receiving yards and a score. But he also has games like in Weeks 3 and 7 where he catches one pass and does nothing with it.

We embrace the variance for Showdown slates. You can also label him as a player you play at Captain or don’t play at all. But even at this mid-range price tag on both sites, you can play him at the flex and be content with 14-17 fantasy points if he does find the end zone.

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $9,500

We don’t have a great outlook for any tight ends in this game. To Dalton Schultz’s credit, he has at least six targets in four of his last five games. And he has at least five targets in six of his last seven games.

But LaPorta and Schultz have some tough matchups for this contest. And as we preview LaPorta, we have to acknowledge the disappointing season he’s having. There just isn’t enough volume to go around unfortunately. In Week 8 he caught all six of his targets for 48 yards and a touchdown. He had a 33% first-read target share after collecting just 8% of the first-read targets through the first seven weeks.

Then last week, the production dropped once again. Williams is probably the better play because the ceiling is higher. But with Detroit passing far less compared to 2023, LaPorta has been the biggest victim of the shift.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

My best suggestion when trying to find the best value options for slate? Spread exposure around. Don’t go overweight on any particular player. No one really stands out or separates themselves from the field but here are a couple I’m leaning into.

Dare Ogunbowale, RB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $6,500

Ogunbowale was comically bad against the Jets on Thursday Night Football in Week 9. He lost a yard on his only carry, but we shouldn’t overlook the fact that he did have three targets in that game. Did he catch any of them? Nope. But we can project a similar negative game script for the Texans offense. Joe Mixon rarely comes off the field, but Ogunbowale will serve as the team’s second option since Dameon Pierce won’t appear in this game.

And if you need an even cheaper running back to consider, J.J. Taylor is $1,000 on DraftKings. He’ll serve as the RB3 and it wouldn’t surprise me if he leads over Ogunbowale in terms of running back touches. Taylor had three carries for 23 yards against the Jets and he’s expected to be active for this game.

Kalif Raymond, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $8,000

He likely takes a backseat and loses snaps with Jameson Williams returning. And we’ve already touched on how little this offense is throwing the ball. But strangely enough, in Weeks 6 and 7 (when Williams was available), Raymond did catch 7-of-10 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. We don’t need much in this spot, but we’re hoping for just a few receptions and if he scores he’s hitting the optimal lineup.

Tim Patrick, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $7,000

Patrick is cheaper than Raymond, but he also has less of a ceiling. He doesn’t quite have the touchdown upside of Raymond. With that said, since Week 2 he has at least five games with at least two receptions. That’s not great by any stretch of the imagination but we’re throwing darts in this range.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

I’ll be quick with the special team options for the Sunday Night Football Showdown Playbook. We’ll start with the kickers because it’s always worth mentioning how under owned they go on Showdown slates. Ka’imi Fairbairn has made at least two field goals in five straight games and in all but two games this year. He provides a nice floor and a damn good ceiling. Jake Bates may not see as much volume as Fairbairn simply because the Lions convert on plenty of red zone opportunities. The Lions score on 63.64% of their red zone trips (eighth in the NFL) and they average over four red zone trips per game. Bates has seen exactly one field goal attempt in each of his last three games. Extra point attempts will be in the cards for him, but Fairbairn might be the better play if Houston keeps pace.

The D/ST’s are live and affordable. The Texans are a bit beat up on the defensive side so I’m not as excited about playing them against a team averaging 32.3 points per game. But the Lions are viable especially if Nico Collins is declared inactive. And if Za’Darius Smith manages to suit up, then that bolsters the defense even more.

 

 

 

Lions vs. Texans DFS Player Pool: SNF, 11/10

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