We close out Sunday’s Week 11 action with an AFC matchup between two teams with playoff aspirations. The hometown Los Angeles Chargers enter this game on a three-game winning streak and are quietly stringing together a very solid season in Jim Harbaugh’s first year as head coach. By comparison, the Bengals are having a good year. But they sit at 4-6 after losing some close, but competitive games including a pair of shootouts to the Baltimore Ravens. They lost four of their first five games but are clinging to life for this AFC matchup and a win on Sunday drastically improves their playoff chances. Let’s take a look at the top Bengals vs. Chargers DFS picks for Sunday Night Football.

 

 

 

Bengals vs. Chargers DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 11/17

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to Southern California a week after a rather devastating loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football. It was the second time this year the Bengals lost a shootout to their division rival. But they aren’t dead in the water just yet and we know the offense is a gold mine for fantasy football.

Through 10 games, Joe Burrow already has 2,672 passing yards and 24 touchdowns. He’s certainly had spike weeks this season despite missing Tee Higgins for a few contests. But his connection with Ja'Marr Chase was on full display in Week 10 where Chase popped for over 50 fantasy points in full PPR formats. The defense is a liability, however.

The Bengals allow the seventh-most points per game (26.2) and the 10th-most yards per game (347.5) in the NFL. By comparison, the Chargers have been tough for opposing offenses. The Chargers allow the fewest points per game (13.1) and the sixth-fewest yards per game (302.1), but the Chargers haven’t seen too many offenses like the Bengals.

However, the Chargers offense has been clicking of late and they’re getting better and better with each week. Justin Herbert is throwing (and running) more. Ladd McConkey is emerging as one of Herbert’s favorite targets. Additionally, the Chargers run game has been effective and the committee approach is working for them. The East coast NFL fans are in for a treat with the Bolts.

This is technically the Chargers second game in a primetime spot but the first time, they were overshadowed in Week 7 on a two-game slate on Monday Night Football. The earlier game was a 41-31 game between the Ravens and Buccaneers. So most eyes were on that matchup. But all eyes will get a great look at the Chargers and this game has the potential for fireworks. Let’s dig into the Bengals vs. Chargers DFS picks and lineup building strategies for Sunday Night Football!

 

 

 

Bengals vs. Chargers SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chargers -1.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Bengals (+102)
    • Chargers (-122)
  • Game Total: Over 48 (-108) / Under 48 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chargers -1.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Bengals (+108)
    • Chargers (-126)
  • Game Total: Over 47.5 (-105) / Under 47.5 (-115)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Bengals vs Chargers SNF, November 17th

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment, so we have zero weather concerns for this matchup.

 

Bengals vs Chargers Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 11

The Cincinnati Bengals get Tee Higgins back from his quadricep injury and he currently carries no injury designation. One player worth monitoring is B.J. Hill for the defensive line. We’ve seen that when either Hill or Sheldon Rankins are inactive that the run defense for Cincy really struggles. Hill is currently questionable with a knee injury. He did practice in a limited capacity on Thursday and Friday.

Joey Bosa does not carry an injury designation for the Los Angeles Chargers, which is great news for the Bolts. In fact, Los Angeles comes in looking pretty healthy overall. Deane Leonard and Khalil Mack are questionable. Leonard was a limited participant in practice late in the week while Mack hasn’t practiced at all with a groin injury. But overall, the Chargers are fairly healthy this late in the season and we haven’t had the luxury of saying that too often over the years.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $16,500

He’s the most expensive player on the slate but if you need a reminder as to why he’s eligible for the Captain/MVP spot on either site, just look at what he did against the Ravens on Thursday Night Football in Week 10. He caught 11-of-17 targets for 264 yards and three touchdowns. It was his third straight game with at least 11 targets.

Tee Higgins is set to return for this game. I’m not really concerned with him cutting into Chase’s target share. Rather, we probably see Mike Gesicki see some regression since his usage and production has increased when Higgins missed time this year. Because of last week’s monstrous game, Chase already has 981 receiving yards on the year with 10 touchdowns and he’s popped for 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings three times this season. 

Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $11,500

Chase Brown has scored in three straight games and he’s found the end zone in six of his last seven. Moreover, the last two weeks he’s been an absolute volume machine. He wasn’t efficient on the ground last week, but he had 22 total touches, nine of which were receptions.

Brown led all running backs in Week 10 with a 73.3% route participation rate, but we likely see some regression on that front with Tee Higgins returning for this game. However, even in Week 9 when Brown had a 51.2% route participation rate, he was able to bring in five catches against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears combined for seven receptions last week against the Chargers and Alvin Kamara had six against L.A. in Week 8. The Bolts are not an easy defense to run on, but Brown’s involvement in the passing game still keep him in consideration for Captain/MVP.

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $14,000

It’s a little bold to recommend Herbert over Joe Burrow at Captain/MVP in this game. I’ll be mixing in shares of both to be honest. But most casual players will look at the player profiles and see the larger performances from Burrow and plug him in over Herbert.

But the Chargers have been leaning on the aerial attack more of late. And this is certainly a matchup where Herbert may set a season-high in terms of pass attempts and touchdowns. And he only has one interception on the season and there’s absolutely nothing scary about the Bengals secondary. 

He’s been getting it going more with his legs and Herbert’s been QB12 in fantasy points per drop back on the season. If there was ever a matchup for Herbert to really breakout for his best game of the season it would be right here against the Bengals. 

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $12,000

Higgins returns after a three-game absence and he does not carry an injury designation for this game. You love to see it! There is some appeal to playing him at Captain as he may be a bit of a leverage play. And truthfully, he has a pretty nice ceiling in this spot as well.

Prior to the injury, Higgins had 39 targets in his last four games. He didn’t get the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings in any of those contests but he did have three touchdowns, two of which came in a big performance against the Baltimore Ravens.

The Chargers run a lot of 2-High coverage. In fact, they deploy it the second-most in the NFL. According to Fantasy Points Data, Higgins has a 24.7% target share against 2-High shells compared to 15.7% for Ja'Marr Chase. Higgins also has a 33.3% first-read target share against this coverage compared to just 22.2% for Chase. This doesn’t mean we should be downgrading Chase by any means, but it certainly justifies and upgrades Higgins coming off the injury.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $15,000

I honestly had Burrow in the Captain/MVP section as of Friday night, but had a change of heart on Saturday. By all means, play whoever you like at the top of your NFL DFS lineups. The Bengals have a great offense and a terrible defense. That’s usually a good sign for quarterbacks in fantasy football.

Burrow has attempted at least 37 pass attempts in three straight games with 10 touchdowns in that span. In four of his last eight games, he’s dropped 28+ fantasy points on DraftKings. In the other four games, he’s returned less than 20. So there’s an argument that you either play him at Captain/MVP or don’t play him at all. But you should still give him consideration as a Flex play if you go with Chase, Tee Higgins, or Chase Brown at Captain.

The big concern with Burrow is going to be the matchup. The Chargers don’t allow much production through the air. No quarterback has eclipsed 250 passing yards on this defense. The Steelers hold the distinct honor of putting up the most points on the Bolts defense and even they only dropped 20 points. The Chargers have also been getting sacks without generating much of a pass rush as you’ll see below in the D/ST section. After a couple spike weeks for Burrow and Co. I do think he comes back down to earth in this matchup.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $13,000

I’m absolutely struggling with Dobbins in this spot. For starters, I don’t trust his efficiency to put him up top as a Captain/MVP candidate. But he’s also the third-most expensive option on DraftKings, and the fourth-most expensive on FanDuel. So he’s too pricy to be considered a mid-range option. So unfortunately, I’m stuck putting him here as a core play and I don’t even love labeling him as such.

Dobbins at least has volume on his side. He has at least 14 carries in every game since Week 2. Additionally, he’s also good for about three catches per game as well. But he’s been very inefficient over the last seven games. He actually had five more carries than Gus Edwards last week, but Edwards recorded more rushing yards. If Dobbins isn’t finding the end zone, then he may struggle to return value at this price tag.

The good news for all running backs on Los Angeles is that the Bengals aren’t great against the run. They’re certainly better if Sheldon Rankins and B.J. Hill are active, but you can rack up yards on this defense. But I just wonder if at this point in the year, the Chargers know they need to manage his workload better, especially with Edwards back.

Will Dissly, TE, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $5,200 | FanDuel: $7,500

We’re getting Dissly at a very friendly price tag following a week where he touted a 33.3% target share. The overall production was rather pedestrian as he caught five-of-six targets for just 30 yards. But as is the case with tight ends, it’s a position dependent on touchdowns.

Looking deeper into last week’s performance, Dissly did have a 41.7% first-read target share per Fantasy Points Data. We know the Bengals defense is weak across the board. Of late, they’ve been deploying a lot of zone coverage and per Dataroma, Dissly sees improved metrics against zone coverage to the tune of 2.50 YPRR, 30% TPRR, and a 19.4% first-read target share. Against all other coverages he’s averaging 1.94 YPRR, 29% TPRR, and a 16.8% first-read target share.

The Bengals are also allowing the seventh-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Dissly also has five red zone targets since Week 6, so while we can’t predict touchdowns for a position dependent upon them, it’s good that he’s being looked at in that area.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $11,000

McConkey has been Justin Herbert’s favorite target of late, but a lot of his snaps come out of the slot. That gives us some concern because he’ll see a lot of coverage from Mike Hilton. The Bengals allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to slot receivers and that’s where McConkey lines up on over 70% of his routes.

The Bengals have also been deploying more zone coverage of late and per Fantasy Points Data, McConkey’s averaging just 1.58 YPRR against zone compared to 2.23 against other coverages. And we know a lot of his targets are shorter and over the middle. He does do a lot after the catch which would have to be his bread and butter against Hilton. I can’t completely lay off him because he’s been so awesome this year and I’ve already expresses some disdain for Dobbins. But I still expect there to be a concerted effort to get Dobbins and McConkey the ball so I feel obligated to at least lean more on the cheaper option of the two.

Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $9,500

For what it’s worth, Quentin Johnston, will make the player pool below. I simply left him out of the write-up because I can’t include everyone in the article. So I’m mentioning Palmer for the savings, but the argument I’m about to make for Palmer also applies to Johnston.

Both Johnston and Palmer line up on the perimeter for 90% and 79% of their routes respectively. Over their last four games, the Bengals are surrendering the most fantasy points to perimeter receivers. Ladd McConkey might run about 25% of his routes from the perimeter, but for the most part we can upgrade Palmer and Q for this primetime affair.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

There’s a strong case for Edwards to be included as a core play. He was just $200 on the Showdown slate last Sunday when the Chargers beat the Titans and he rushed for 55 yards on 10 carries. He accounted for 40% of the running back carries and produced more yards than J.K. Dobbins.

Dobbins has not been very efficient the last couple months. Per Dataroma, since Week 3, Dobbins is averaging just 3.54 YPC, with 2.06 yards after contact per attempt, and just a 2.6% explosive run rate. In case you haven’t noticed, I don’t love Dobbins for this game. Can we completely fade him? No, because he has involvement in the passing game. So despite the inefficiency, he can give us production through volume.

But I can’t overlook Edwards at this price tag after he received 10 carries a week ago. The Bengals can be tough against opposing running backs, but Edwards is the running back they paid the most money to in the offseason and I do think he has a shot at finding the end zone Sunday night.

Khalil Herbert, RB, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

Herbert didn’t make the greatest first impression with the Bengals in Week 10. But keep in mind, he was acquired by the team just two days before he made his debut. So he’s traded on Tuesday then asked to make his debut on Thursday. And wouldn’t you know it, he fumbled the one carry he was given but luckily he did recover it.

By playing Herbert in this matchup, we have to hope that they expand upon his role. Given that the team played on Thursday Night Football in Week 10, he’s had more time to examine the playbook, get reps in practice, and just develop chemistry and get accustomed to his new surroundings. I don’t love this play as much as Gus Bus, but I imagine they try to manufacture a few more touches for Herbert this time around.

Stone Smartt, TE, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $200 | FanDuel: $5,000

If you’re familiar with Andrew Cooper’s NFL DFST TE Coach articles, you’ll recognize this name as an occasional dart throw from the 2023 season. And I don’t have much to go off of with Stone Smartt aside from the fact that he’s $200. Maybe he can get us one or two catches with some yardage to justify this punt play.

Was I initially going to put in Hayden Hurst? Yes. Why didn’t I? Something odd happened last week in terms of snaps with Los Angeles. Smartt missed the last two games so the only active tight ends for the Bolts last week were Dissly, Hayden Hurst, and Tucker Fisk. Hurst played only NINE of the 52 offensive snaps for L.A. in Week 10. By comparison, Dissly played 32 and Fisk played 23 as a player that was signed off their practice squad for depth. And sure, Fisk was used mostly as a blocker.

But Smartt now carries no injury designation ahead of Sunday’s game. And he’s a converted wide receiver that isn’t a great blocker by any means. So if he’s active for this game, I do think he can maybe get on the field and get a couple targets. If he can just get one reception and take it for a nice catch-and-run he’s easily paying off such a cheap tag on DraftKings.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

I don’t particularly love playing either defense, but if I had to go with one it would probably be the Los Angeles Chargers. They’re more than capable of getting to the quarterback. This is a team that’s already had their Bye week and yet they rank fourth in the NFL in sacks (31) despite blitzing just 22% of the time in addition to a 17.1% pressure rate. It should be mentioned that they have 18 sacks in their last three games and they’ve returned double-digit fantasy points on four occasions. But all in all, this game is almost a pick ‘em with an implied total in the high 40’s. They’ve also only allowed just one opponent to put up more than 18 points on them this year. So I do think they have some appeal in this matchup as a Flex play.

I can’t say I’m as interested in rostering the Cincinnati Bengals for our SNF DFS picks. In four of their last eight games they’ve allowed opposing offenses to score 35+ points. When that has happened this D/ST has returned one or fewer fantasy points. The Bengals don’t have a great secondary, but Mike Hilton is a good slot cornerback. And the run defense is better so long as B.J. Hill is on the field but he was limited in practice last week. I’m proceeding with caution and likely avoiding the Bengals in this spot.

The kickers make for good correlation plays, but I’m weary of Evan McPherson. Volume is a concern. As we just mentioned two paragraphs ago, the Chargers have held all but one opponent to 17 points or less. That’s why they present such a difficult matchup to opposing kickers. This is kind of fluky, but an opposing kicker has missed a field goal in three straight games against the Chargers and they don’t typically see many opportunities either. McPherson hasn’t really been padding the stat sheet either. He’s completed just 13-of-17 field goal attempts this season and he’s just four-for-seven in his last six games.

Cameron Dicker has some variance but has provided a better floor with more volume overall. And the Bengals defense is bad enough where teams can move the ball with ease on them and put themselves in position to score points. I do think that bodes well for Dicker as a Flex play and he’s returned nine fantasy points in four of his last five games.

 

 

 

Bengals vs. Chargers DFS Player Pool: SNF, 11/17

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