Leverage. That’s the key to “winning” your fantasy football draft. Championships are won on the waiver wire, with trades, with weekly lineup decisions, etc. But crushing your draft can give you a huge leg up. And getting the best possible value on players is the path. Just ask the folks that landed C.J. Stroud, Sam LaPorta, Puka Nacua or Kyren Williams last year. Filling a starting roster spot that late creates a LOT of leverage.

Late round fantasy sleepers are obviously great, but another way is identifying where we can find similar value at a discount. If I take Player X in the first round, and you take Player Y in the third round, and they score the same amount of fantasy points, you gained the most leverage there. Because you essentially got the same production as my round one player AND you got your own round one player on top.

Identifying these situations can help shape our fantasy football rankings and navigate through the draft. So, that’s what we’re doing today. I’m excited for guys like Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley this year – these are absolute studs. But, like everyone else, I ask myself “is there a player going later that can provide similar production?”

With someone as unique as Tyreek Hill, I’m not quite sure there is. But with Barkley and Taylor, I think there could be some guys going later on in fantasy drafts that offer a similar floor and just as high of upside. Like Josh Jacobs, for example.

 

 

 

Josh Jacobs’ Talent

What is the ceiling for these three backs? That’s the key to where we are drafting them. We know that, if healthy, the floor is solid for all three. They’re starting backs in good offenses. It’s the upside that matters. In terms of production, touchdowns can be flukey, so our focus for us should be on yards and receptions in terms of predictability.

In 2019, Saquon Barkley had 2,028 yards from scrimmage. That was his best season, and it happened to be his rookie season. In 2021, Jonathan Taylor had 2,121 yards from scrimmage. He’s since dealt with injuries, and his next best season since then was 1,004 yards. In 2022, Josh Jacobs had 2,053 yards from scrimmage. He did that on a Las Vegas Raiders team that won six games.

We’ve seen all three of these guys throw down monster seasons of 2,000+ yards. Jonathan Taylor is 25 years old, Josh Jacobs is 26 and Saquon Barkley is 27. To me, there’s no reason to believe those days are over for any of them – even if it’s been 3-4 years for a couple of them.

In terms of receptions, Jonathan Taylor has maxed out at 51 in a season or 3 per game. That doesn’t mean that is his ceiling – in 2022, he got 40 targets in 11 games, which is 3.6. Last year, he had 23 targets in 10 games, but we expect better than that pace this year. Otherwise, why take him where he’s going?

Saquon Barkley as a rookie had 121 targets, which is incredible. Since then, the most he has had was 76 in 2022. Over the last three seasons, Barkley has averaged 4.5 targets per game. Josh Jacobs had back-to-back seasons with 64, which ties his highest total. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 4.1 targets per game. So not quite on Barkley’s level, but not far off.

When it comes to touchdowns and efficiency, that often boils down to the offense as a whole. We’ve seen Saquon Barkley average 5 yards a carry when things are good, we’ve seen 3.7 yards a carry when things are bad. Same with Jacobs – 4.9 yards per carry one year becomes 3.5 yards per carry the next when the team is struggling. Luckily, he’s no longer on the Raiders.

 

 

 

Green Bay Packers Offensive Scheme

Having a mobile quarterback can be a double-edged sword for backs in the NFL. On one hand, we expect Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor to benefit from the RPO with Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson, which should lead to efficiency. That should boost those yards per carry numbers for sure. On the flip side, mobile QBs don’t always dump the ball down to the running back. They extend plays and look downfield. And they can also vulture touchdowns at the goal line.

The best example of why the mobile QB can be problematic for the back in fantasy would be 2023 James Cook. Cook finished as the RB3 in yards from scrimmage last year. But he was the RB19 in points per game, despite being both the lead back and leading that backfield in targets. Why? Cook finished with a reasonable 54 targets in 17 games while playing 714 snaps. 

But someone like Aaron Jones in Green Bay got 43 targets despite leaving multiple games with injury and only playing 443 snaps. A guy like Alvin Kamara was on pace for 112 targets. Josh Allen simply wasn’t dumping it down to the RB at that level. And, even worse, he took 15 rushing TDs for himself. James Cook got 2.

That’s one advantage Josh Jacobs has here. Sure, Jordan Love is “mobile”. But by no means is he a rushing QB. He had 4 rushing TDs in 17 games compared to Jalen Hurts who had 15, or Anthony Richardson who had 3 in 3 starts. An argument about efficiency can be made against Josh Jacobs, but Joe Mixon wasn’t super-efficient last year, and he finished as the RB7. Because he benefited from a good situation in an above-average offense. Which brings me to my next point…

 

 

 

Jacobs’ Opportunity With The Packers

All three backs are obviously coveted. Jonathan Taylor got a 3-year deal worth $42 million. Saquon Barkley got a 3-year deal worth $37.75 million. Josh Jacobs got a 4-year deal worth $48 million. We can split hairs about AAV or guaranteed money, but these are all top five paid backs in the league. They’ve all been paid to be the lead back for their team.

The idea, of course, that has pushed Jacobs down in drafts is that Saquon Barkley is the primary back for the Eagles and Jonathan Taylor is the primary back for the Colts. They’ve been paid to be the every-down backs. 

The Packers released fan-favorite Aaron Jones and paid Josh Jacobs a boatload of money, but some believe he might just be a part-time player because of rookie Marshawn Lloyd? That cutting Jones and signing Jacobs was a luxury move as part of a committee? I’m sure they’ll find a way to mix Lloyd in, but he’s been dealing with a hip issue this offseason and wasn’t even mentioned by OC Adam Stenavich when talking about the Packers “1-2” punch:

Every back is going to split the work to some degree in the modern NFL. What matters are the high leverage touches, as we discussed with our Running Back Room Questionnaire in the Draft Guide. The Packers have a great offense and will be scoring at will – and the starting back will be the beneficiary. 

I’m honestly more worried about the mobile nature of Jalen Hurts or Anthony Richardson than I am the Packers tapping another back to take the important snaps for this team, like goal line or two-minute drill. It will be Jacobs out there when it matters. You'd have to bet that their evaluators were completely off and that they wasted a lot of money on him otherwise.

 

 

 

Josh Jacobs Fantasy ADP 2024

All this leads me to the most important part of this discussion. Based on our composite fantasy ADP pulled from multiple sources, the average ADP for Jonathan Taylor is 12 overall. Saquon Barkley’s is 14. These are guys that you either need to take in the first round or around that first swing if you want them.

Jacobs goes at pick 35, at the END of the third round and sometimes the start of the fourth. And everything I laid out above suggests Josh Jacobs could be just as good as those guys, if not better.

If you check our rankings in the Fantasy Alarm 2024 NFL Fantasy Football Draft Guide, you’ll see that we aren’t taking Josh Jacobs OVER Saquon Barkley or Jonathan Taylor. Based on ADP, you don’t have to. But you might be surprised to see how close we feel these players are. And that can create a lot of leverage for you in your fantasy drafts.