NFL Sunday Best Player Prop Picks: Josh Allen, Josh Jacobs Wild Card Round
Sandwiched between the two opening Wild Card Weekend games on Saturday and the Monday Night Football finale are three playoff matchups spanning all day on Sunday. It’s the bulk of the action, so to ensure that you have multiple approaches to the slate, we’ve shared our best Wild Card Sunday player prop picks.
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Best NFL Wild Card Sunday Player Prop Picks
With three Wild Card games on Sunday that include a massive favorite, one filled with key injuries and a primetime game, there’s no doubt Wild Card Sunday player prop picks may be the way to go. Now, we’re going to have a separate article for the Sunday Night Football game with props.
Therefore, to provide you with as much coverage and variety as possible, we’re going to focus on the earlier two games here. While that means more variety, our favorite two plays do have a bit of a theme, and they may not be the most conventional. Let’s explain further by getting into the full analysis for our Wild Card Sunday player prop picks.
Broncos vs. Bills Player Props: Josh Allen Over 6.5 Carries (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
The player that we’re targeting first for our Wild Card Sunday player prop picks is certainly conventional, as Josh Allen is currently the betting favorite to win the MVP this season. It’s the market that isn’t the most popular.
Well, given how impressive Allen has been with his legs over the years, it’s not a crazy one, either. One of the primary reasons for his strong MVP case is the fact that he’s had 12 rushing touchdowns this season!
While that means he has some wear and tear on him, he didn’t play after taking the opening snap in Week 18 to get credit for the start, so he should be as fresh as if he’s coming off a bye week. We anticipate him to tuck and run quite often against the Broncos, as they have the league’s third-best run defense.
That means that Buffalo’s gameplan should be to focus on the passing game, so while that means Allen will be dropping back to throw, that also means more opportunities for him to run with Denver in man coverage. That’s something that they love to do given how great CB Patrick Surtain has been.
Man coverage means teams turning their back to the QB, which Allen loves. Now, you may see that Allen rushed for five and six carries prior to Week 18. That came against the Jets and Patriots. In three of four games prior against playoff-caliber teams (Chiefs, Rams and Lions), Allen rushed 11, 10 and 12 times!
In other words, he puts his Superman cape on in these moments, as two of those teams are also the #1 seeds. Now well-rested, we’re kicking off our Wild Card Sunday player prop picks with Josh Allen over 6.5 carries (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
Packers vs. Eagles Player Props: Josh Jacobs Over 17.5 Carries (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
To continue our Wild Card Sunday player prop picks of unconventional picks, we’re now swapping from QB to RB, but keeping it with another Josh. This time, it’s Jacobs impressing his new team in the Packers.
He’s been an absolute stud all season, which is why the team has fed him game after game. His 301 carries this season were the sixth-most, and that was even after all but resting him in Week 18. In that regular season finale, Jacobs had just six carries while the team let two other RBs exceed that with 14 and eight carries.
That’s a total of 28 carries between the three, and we expect Green Bay to run just as often. The Eagles have the absolute best pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 174.2 passing yards per game. Not only does the matchup call for a heavy dose of Jacobs, the Packers biggest injury concerns are within the passing game.
We’ve now seen QB Jordan Love injured multiple different times this season, including just this past Sunday. Similarly, we saw WR Christian Watson tear his ACL, and as for the other WRs, not a single one of them has a receiving yards prop over 50 yards.
Jacobs also had 16 carries against the Eagles in the season opener, and that was when Love was forced to throw 34 times in the shootout. We don’t expect that this time around given current situations, so we love adding to our Wild Card Sunday player prop picks with Josh Jacobs over 17.5 carries (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
NFL Wild Card Sunday Player Props Player Prop Odds At BetMGM Sportsbook
Of course, it’s not just carries props that are available - here are some other popular NFL Sunday player props at BetMGM Sportsbook:
Passing Yards:
- Bills AB Josh Allen: Over 226.5 (-115) vs. Under 226.5 (-115)
- Broncos QB Bo Nix: Over 222.5 (-115) vs. Under 222.5 (-115)
Rushing Yards:
- Eagles RB Saquon Barkley: Over 101.5 (-115) vs. Under 101.5 (-115)
- Packers RB Josh Jacobs: Over 70.5 (-115) vs. Under 70.5 (-115)
Receiving Yards:
- Bills WR Khalil Shakir: Over 53.5 (-115) vs. Under 53.5 (-115)
- Eagles WR AJ Brown: Over 83.5 (-115) vs. Under 83.5 (-115)
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Player News
Free agent RB Nyheim Hines said he is hoping to sign with a team before training camp.
Hines suffered a torn ACL during a jet-ski accident in 2023 and hasn’t played an NFL game since. The running back/return man said he believes his knee is now fully recovered and is hoping he can join a team before the start of training camp. Hines caught 30 passes for 241 yards and one touchdown in 2022 while splitting time with the Colts and Bills, and also returned 19 kicks for 554 yards and two scores. At 28 years old, there should be plenty of teams interested in giving him a look due to his special teams prowess and abilities in the passing game, but he’ll be far from a lock to make a roster wherever he lands.
Speaking on the Giants Huddle podcast, TE Theo Johnson said he is healthy after undergoing foot surgery last season.
Johnson caught 29 passes for 331 yards and one touchdown last season, but saw his rookie campaign come to an end due to a foot injury. Now healthy and ready to get back to work, the second-year tight end is hopeful he can continue where he left off before his injury, when he went for 26-293-1 over an eight-game stretch. It’s far from elite production, but Johnson posted an impressive 9.93 RAS during the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine and averaged a solid 12.2 YPR during his four years at Penn State. He won’t be on the fantasy radar to start the season, but Johnson could have some upside if he emerges as a primary receiving threat this season.
The Athletic’s Kevin Fishbain says Ben Johnson “seemed confident” that Luther Burden (soft tissue) would be ready at the start of training camp.
Burden has been sidelined for most of the offseason while dealing with an undisclosed injury. The rookie second-rounder also remains unsigned. While it’s been a slow start to Burden’s pro career, a return by training camp should give him plenty of time to get up to speed before the start of the season. Even when Burden acclimates himself to the offense, he’ll likely slot in as the team’s No. 3 receiver with Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore expected to serve as the primary options in two receiver sets. Burden makes for an intriguing late-round pick in deeper leagues, but is unlikely to enter the season with much fantasy upside.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler said Terry McLaurin is “not happy with where things are with an extension.”
Fowler adds that the Commanders have “a couple of weeks here to make progress” before training camp begins on July 22. McLaurin has skipped all offseason workouts thus far, so it stands to reason he could continue the absentee strategy later this month. Training camp is a critical time for NFL teams, allowing players to safely ramp up ahead of preseason play, not to mention the regular season. McLaurin profiles as a fantasy football WR2 this year.
The Athletic’s Mark Puleo reports, Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh “has been added as a defendant in a class-action lawsuit filed by 11 anonymous students against former University of Michigan offensive coordinator Matt Weiss.”
Weiss “has been accused of hacking the email, social media and cloud storage accounts of thousands of female athletes and downloading intimate photos and videos.” Per Puleo, “the amended complaint... alleges that Harbaugh” and “university officials knew that Weiss had been accessing the plaintiffs’ private information when they allowed him to coach in the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31, 2022.” Harbaugh previously told reporters that “he didn’t learn of allegations involving Weiss until after the Fiesta Bowl,” saying he was “completely shocked” and “disturbed” upon hearing the allegations. Weiss has worked for both Jim and John Harbaugh, dating back to 2007; Stanford (2007-2008) and Michigan (2021-2022) with Jim, and the Ravens (2009-2020) with John. Jim coached at Michigan from 2015-2023. Per Puleo, “allegations of computer hacking against Weiss date to 2015, when he was with Baltimore.” Neither Michigan nor the Chargers responded to Puleo’s request for a comment.
Trevor Lawrence and head coach Liam Coen complimented Dyami Brown for finding “voids” in zone coverage and his improved intermediate-depth route running this spring.
Per ESPN’s Michael DiRocco, Lawrence “was impressed with Brown during the spring and said the two seemed to click pretty quickly.” The veteran quarterback specifically praised Brown for picking up “the system really quickly,” saying, Brown has “gotten the ball a lot because it seems like he’s always in the right spot.” Coen, meanwhile, believes Brown has “validated” the team’s $9.5 million investment by improving his play on “those intermediate in-breakers, curls, maybe outcuts,” an area where “you didn’t really see him work” that much with the Commanders. Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter will reliably command larger target shares than Brown, but if Brown can develop into more than a field stretcher and part-time screen weapon, he should yield flex value this season.