NFL SNF Best Player Prop Picks: Commanders vs. Buccaneers - Sunday, 1/12

The three-game Wild Card Sunday slate wraps up with a Sunday Night Football matchup in the NFC with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Washington Commanders. That’s despite the Bucs having the worse record of the two, and with the ups and downs of these teams, we’ve shared some NFL SNF player prop picks for alternative approaches to the game.
Beyond just our best bets will be some other Commanders vs. Buccaneers player props to target and even a huge $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign up offer!
Best NFL Sunday Night Football Player Prop Picks
So, how is it that the Bucs get to host a playoff game with a worse record? Well, with how mediocre the NFC South has been for quite some time now, they were able to get into the postseason as a division winner yet again rather than a Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Commanders had to deal with a 14-3 Philadelphia Eagles team in the NFC East.
That said, Washington wasn’t even expected to be here while being led by a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels. He has surpassed all expectations, so it won’t come as a surprise that he kicks off our NFL SNF player prop picks. We’ll also target the Tampa Bay side of the game with our Commanders vs. Buccaneers player props below.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Player Props: Jayden Daniels Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Daniels indeed kicks off our NFL SNF player prop picks, and we’re going to focus on his passing attempts. Yardage props are generally more popular, but there is far more value here, and for several reasons.
First and foremost, he has an excellent matchup against a suspect Bucs defense. Specifically, Tampa Bay has struggled against the pass this season, allowing the second-most attempts and third-most yards. So, while either approach is strong, the current lines have us preferring attempts over yards.
While Daniels has eclipsed 234.5 passing yards (his current line) just once in the past five games, he’s had 36+ attempts in two of the past three. The only outlier was in Week 18 when he only played a portion of the game, so for all intents and purposes, it’s been each of the last two games.
In fact, Daniels hasn’t had fewer than 30 pass attempts since Week 9, so the team is clearly trusting the rookie. There is also support for this play by simply looking at the RB markets - Washington RB Brian Robinson has his rushing yards prop set to just 46.5 yards, suggesting that oddsmakers also expect the Commanders to be throwing often.
Given the superb matchup, we love Jayden Daniels over 31.5 pass attempts (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook) as the first of our NFL SNF player prop picks.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets: Mike Evans Under 78.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
We’re going to continue our NFL SNF player prop picks by sticking with the air attack, but with a play that most fans will likely be scratching their head over. Week 18 was all about Bucs WR Mike Evans getting over 1,000 yards on the season with the final play of the game with the team hooking him up rather than taking a knee.
His 11th straight 1,000+ yard season ties him with Jerry Rice as the only players to pull that off, which all but solidifies his Hall-of-Fame candidacy. So, why are we taking the under for such an elite WR? Well, while Daniels is facing a horrific pass defense, Evans and the Bucs are facing an elite one.
What has been one of the biggest turnarounds for any single unit, Washington has gone from last year’s worst pass defense to this year’s third-best. Like we did for the first of our NFL SNF player prop picks, we can look at the RB markets to support this play.
We see Tampa RB Bucky Irving with a high yardage line of 87.5 yards, suggesting that oddsmakers also expect the Bucs to focus on the run game. It may be a tough one for fans to swallow, but we’re adding to our NFL SNF player prop picks with Mike Evans under 78.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
Sunday Night Football Player Props At BetMGM Sportsbook
As promised, we’ve got other Commanders vs. Buccaneers player props at BetMGM Sportsbook to consider targeting alongside our NFL SNF player prop picks:
Passing Yards:
- Jayden Daniels Over 234.5 (-115) vs. Under 234.5 (-115)
- Baker Mayfield: Over 238.5 (-115) vs. Under 238.5 (-115)
Rushing Yards:
- Brian Robinson: Over 46.5 (-115) vs. Under 46.5 (-115)
- Bucky Irving: Over 87.5 (-115) vs. Under 87.5 (-115)
Receiving Yards:
- Terry McLaurin: Over 60.5 (-115) vs. Under 60.5 (-115)
- Mike Evans: Over 78.5 (-115) vs. Under 78.5 (-115)
Anytime TD Scorer:
- Bucky Irving: -165
- Mike Evans: +105
- Terry McLaurin: +115
- Brian Robinson: +155
- Kalen McMillan: +185
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Player News
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Dolphins released LS Blake Ferguson.
The team also waived CB Ryan Cooper Jr., DT Neil Farrell and OL Chasen Hines. Ferguson has been the team’s long snapper for five seasons and earned a three-year contract extension just before the 2023 season. He should be able to find work snapping footballs farther than the average snap elsewhere in the league.
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.