NFL SNF Best Player Prop Picks: Commanders vs. Buccaneers - Sunday, 1/12

The three-game Wild Card Sunday slate wraps up with a Sunday Night Football matchup in the NFC with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Washington Commanders. That’s despite the Bucs having the worse record of the two, and with the ups and downs of these teams, we’ve shared some NFL SNF player prop picks for alternative approaches to the game.
Beyond just our best bets will be some other Commanders vs. Buccaneers player props to target and even a huge $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign up offer!
Best NFL Sunday Night Football Player Prop Picks
So, how is it that the Bucs get to host a playoff game with a worse record? Well, with how mediocre the NFC South has been for quite some time now, they were able to get into the postseason as a division winner yet again rather than a Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Commanders had to deal with a 14-3 Philadelphia Eagles team in the NFC East.
That said, Washington wasn’t even expected to be here while being led by a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels. He has surpassed all expectations, so it won’t come as a surprise that he kicks off our NFL SNF player prop picks. We’ll also target the Tampa Bay side of the game with our Commanders vs. Buccaneers player props below.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Player Props: Jayden Daniels Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Daniels indeed kicks off our NFL SNF player prop picks, and we’re going to focus on his passing attempts. Yardage props are generally more popular, but there is far more value here, and for several reasons.
First and foremost, he has an excellent matchup against a suspect Bucs defense. Specifically, Tampa Bay has struggled against the pass this season, allowing the second-most attempts and third-most yards. So, while either approach is strong, the current lines have us preferring attempts over yards.
While Daniels has eclipsed 234.5 passing yards (his current line) just once in the past five games, he’s had 36+ attempts in two of the past three. The only outlier was in Week 18 when he only played a portion of the game, so for all intents and purposes, it’s been each of the last two games.
In fact, Daniels hasn’t had fewer than 30 pass attempts since Week 9, so the team is clearly trusting the rookie. There is also support for this play by simply looking at the RB markets - Washington RB Brian Robinson has his rushing yards prop set to just 46.5 yards, suggesting that oddsmakers also expect the Commanders to be throwing often.
Given the superb matchup, we love Jayden Daniels over 31.5 pass attempts (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook) as the first of our NFL SNF player prop picks.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets: Mike Evans Under 78.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
We’re going to continue our NFL SNF player prop picks by sticking with the air attack, but with a play that most fans will likely be scratching their head over. Week 18 was all about Bucs WR Mike Evans getting over 1,000 yards on the season with the final play of the game with the team hooking him up rather than taking a knee.
His 11th straight 1,000+ yard season ties him with Jerry Rice as the only players to pull that off, which all but solidifies his Hall-of-Fame candidacy. So, why are we taking the under for such an elite WR? Well, while Daniels is facing a horrific pass defense, Evans and the Bucs are facing an elite one.
What has been one of the biggest turnarounds for any single unit, Washington has gone from last year’s worst pass defense to this year’s third-best. Like we did for the first of our NFL SNF player prop picks, we can look at the RB markets to support this play.
We see Tampa RB Bucky Irving with a high yardage line of 87.5 yards, suggesting that oddsmakers also expect the Bucs to focus on the run game. It may be a tough one for fans to swallow, but we’re adding to our NFL SNF player prop picks with Mike Evans under 78.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
Sunday Night Football Player Props At BetMGM Sportsbook
As promised, we’ve got other Commanders vs. Buccaneers player props at BetMGM Sportsbook to consider targeting alongside our NFL SNF player prop picks:
Passing Yards:
- Jayden Daniels Over 234.5 (-115) vs. Under 234.5 (-115)
- Baker Mayfield: Over 238.5 (-115) vs. Under 238.5 (-115)
Rushing Yards:
- Brian Robinson: Over 46.5 (-115) vs. Under 46.5 (-115)
- Bucky Irving: Over 87.5 (-115) vs. Under 87.5 (-115)
Receiving Yards:
- Terry McLaurin: Over 60.5 (-115) vs. Under 60.5 (-115)
- Mike Evans: Over 78.5 (-115) vs. Under 78.5 (-115)
Anytime TD Scorer:
- Bucky Irving: -165
- Mike Evans: +105
- Terry McLaurin: +115
- Brian Robinson: +155
- Kalen McMillan: +185
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Player News
Broncos S P.J. Locke said he underwent spinal fusion surgery after the team’s playoff loss in January.
Locke is one of the first NFL players to undergo spinal fusion surgery, sharing his journey in a personal documentary YouTube video. He dealt with the pain from the surgery early on, but says he does not feel pain now. Locke started 15 games and the playoff loss for the Broncos and is a key member of a daunting secondary. The 28-year-old missed offseason workouts due to rehab and is preparing to be ready for the regular season.
Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers is working out with six Steelers pass-catchers in Malibu prior to training camp.
Rodgers did not sign with the Steelers until late in the offseason, leaving him little time to build chemistry with the team’s receivers through offseason workouts. However, Rodgers posted a photo on social media with WRs DK Metcalf, Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson, Scotty Miller, and Ben Skowronek and TE Pat Freiermuth. He had invited offensive skill players to work out with him and these six have taken up the offer thus far. Metcalf and Freiermuth are likely to be two of the top options in the Steelers offense, with Austin and Wilson mixing in behind. Newly acquired Jonnu Smith is not there, though he just joined the team this week. Rodgers is headed for a final season in Pittsburgh and is looking to build further rapport with his pass-catchers for one last hurrah.
The Athletic’s Chad Graff believes Patriots WR Efton Chism will “enter camp with a decent shot at making the team.”
A UDFA from Eastern Washington, Chism has been singled out by Drake Maye and coach Mike Vrabel for his impressive showing during the early offseason sessions. Chism put up videogame numbers in the Eagles’ high-flying passing attack last year, totaling 120 catches for 1,311 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2024. Despite the gaudy counting stats, Chism’s 5'10/195 build combined with a dreadful 4.71 Forty led to all 32 teams passing on him during the draft. He will likely be parked behind Demario Douglas as a rookie, but Chism could be worth a look in deep dynasty leagues if he makes noise during training camp.
ESPN’s Jamison Hensley believes Ravens WR Devontez Walker “was Baltimore’s most consistent wide receiver during spring practices.”
Hensley called the second-year wideout “the front-runner to be Baltimore’s No. 4 wide receiver” job. It’s not much, but that would be a drastic improvement over the role Walker played as a rookie. He appeared in nine games and caught one pass, a 21-yard score in Week 15. A fourth-round pick in 2024, Walker was drafted as a developmental vertical threat and simply wasn’t ready to take on a meaningful role as a rookie. Coaches and reporters have talked him up this offseason, allowing dynasty managers to leave the light on for him in 2025.
Jaguars head coach Liam Coen said rookie RB Bhayshul Tuten needs to improve in pass protection.
It’s hardly surprising to hear a head coach urge a rookie back to get better as a blocker. Pass protection is usually a roadblock to consistent snaps for rookie runners. “From protection systems in college to the pros, that’s usually where you see some of the tempo slow down for them – playing slower, thinking more – is when pass-pro starts to kind of bog the mind,” Coen said. “I think [Tuten] has done a solid job. I know he needs a lot more work, which all those guys do.” The 104th selection in the 2025 NFL Draft, Tuten racked up 1,159 yards and 15 touchdowns on 183 attempts in his final collegiate season at Virginia Tech. He also functioned as a kicker return, a role he could experiment with in Jacksonville this summer. PFF graded Tuten in 2024 as the nation’s 98th best blocking back out of 148 qualifying backs. He’ll need to improve in that area if he’s going to seize the RB1 role in the Jaguars backfield in 2025.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports TE Darren Waller told the Giants he “wanted to play again specifically only for Miami.”
Waller, 32, came out of retirement Tuesday and was immediately traded to the Dolphins in exchange for draft-pick compensation. Waller joins one of the NFL’s thinnest tight end depth charts, alongside Pharaoh Brown, Jalin Conyers, and Julian Hill. None of those players will threaten Waller’s role as the team’s primary pass-catching tight end. A seam-stretcher for most of his NFL career, Waller will bring something very different to the Miami offense than what they had with YAC machine Jonnu Smith. Waller, who had 52 grabs on 70 targets for the Giants in 2023, should be the No. 3 target behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.