NFL SNF Best Player Prop Picks: Commanders vs. Buccaneers - Sunday, 1/12

The three-game Wild Card Sunday slate wraps up with a Sunday Night Football matchup in the NFC with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Washington Commanders. That’s despite the Bucs having the worse record of the two, and with the ups and downs of these teams, we’ve shared some NFL SNF player prop picks for alternative approaches to the game.
Beyond just our best bets will be some other Commanders vs. Buccaneers player props to target and even a huge $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign up offer!
Best NFL Sunday Night Football Player Prop Picks
So, how is it that the Bucs get to host a playoff game with a worse record? Well, with how mediocre the NFC South has been for quite some time now, they were able to get into the postseason as a division winner yet again rather than a Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Commanders had to deal with a 14-3 Philadelphia Eagles team in the NFC East.
That said, Washington wasn’t even expected to be here while being led by a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels. He has surpassed all expectations, so it won’t come as a surprise that he kicks off our NFL SNF player prop picks. We’ll also target the Tampa Bay side of the game with our Commanders vs. Buccaneers player props below.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Player Props: Jayden Daniels Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Daniels indeed kicks off our NFL SNF player prop picks, and we’re going to focus on his passing attempts. Yardage props are generally more popular, but there is far more value here, and for several reasons.
First and foremost, he has an excellent matchup against a suspect Bucs defense. Specifically, Tampa Bay has struggled against the pass this season, allowing the second-most attempts and third-most yards. So, while either approach is strong, the current lines have us preferring attempts over yards.
While Daniels has eclipsed 234.5 passing yards (his current line) just once in the past five games, he’s had 36+ attempts in two of the past three. The only outlier was in Week 18 when he only played a portion of the game, so for all intents and purposes, it’s been each of the last two games.
In fact, Daniels hasn’t had fewer than 30 pass attempts since Week 9, so the team is clearly trusting the rookie. There is also support for this play by simply looking at the RB markets - Washington RB Brian Robinson has his rushing yards prop set to just 46.5 yards, suggesting that oddsmakers also expect the Commanders to be throwing often.
Given the superb matchup, we love Jayden Daniels over 31.5 pass attempts (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook) as the first of our NFL SNF player prop picks.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets: Mike Evans Under 78.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
We’re going to continue our NFL SNF player prop picks by sticking with the air attack, but with a play that most fans will likely be scratching their head over. Week 18 was all about Bucs WR Mike Evans getting over 1,000 yards on the season with the final play of the game with the team hooking him up rather than taking a knee.
His 11th straight 1,000+ yard season ties him with Jerry Rice as the only players to pull that off, which all but solidifies his Hall-of-Fame candidacy. So, why are we taking the under for such an elite WR? Well, while Daniels is facing a horrific pass defense, Evans and the Bucs are facing an elite one.
What has been one of the biggest turnarounds for any single unit, Washington has gone from last year’s worst pass defense to this year’s third-best. Like we did for the first of our NFL SNF player prop picks, we can look at the RB markets to support this play.
We see Tampa RB Bucky Irving with a high yardage line of 87.5 yards, suggesting that oddsmakers also expect the Bucs to focus on the run game. It may be a tough one for fans to swallow, but we’re adding to our NFL SNF player prop picks with Mike Evans under 78.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
Sunday Night Football Player Props At BetMGM Sportsbook
As promised, we’ve got other Commanders vs. Buccaneers player props at BetMGM Sportsbook to consider targeting alongside our NFL SNF player prop picks:
Passing Yards:
- Jayden Daniels Over 234.5 (-115) vs. Under 234.5 (-115)
- Baker Mayfield: Over 238.5 (-115) vs. Under 238.5 (-115)
Rushing Yards:
- Brian Robinson: Over 46.5 (-115) vs. Under 46.5 (-115)
- Bucky Irving: Over 87.5 (-115) vs. Under 87.5 (-115)
Receiving Yards:
- Terry McLaurin: Over 60.5 (-115) vs. Under 60.5 (-115)
- Mike Evans: Over 78.5 (-115) vs. Under 78.5 (-115)
Anytime TD Scorer:
- Bucky Irving: -165
- Mike Evans: +105
- Terry McLaurin: +115
- Brian Robinson: +155
- Kalen McMillan: +185
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Player News
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports Dolphins CB Artie Burns is believed to have suffered a torn ACL in Wednesday’s practice.
The Sun Sentinel’s David Furones has since confirmed that Burns tore his ACL in practice. The injury will sideline him for the entirety of the 2025 season. Burns signed a one-year deal with the Dolphins in the offseason to bolster their secondary. Burns bounced between the Seahawks’ practice squad and active roster last year and was set to compete for a rotational role in Miami. The injury and Jalen Ramsey trade leave Miami severely undermanned at corner. They could look to the free agent market for some depth.
ESPN’s Courtney Cronin reports Bears WR Luther Burden is not practicing at the start of training camp.
As Cronin notes, Burden got banged up when he landed on the ball in an early offseason practice. He was also dealing with a hamstring issue at one point. It’s not clear which injury is forcing him to miss the start of camp, but it’s a bad sign no matter the cause. The fact thta Ben Johnson previously indicated that Burden would be ready for camp and he isn’t is an even brighter red flag. Burden left Mizzou as a schemed-touches master, perfect for Johnson’s heavily curated offense. Fantasy managers should still bet on him carving out a role as a rookie, but the odds of that happening early in the season are decreasing by the day.
NFL insider Jordan Schultz reports WR Keenan Allen “has drawn interest from multiple teams in recent weeks.”
Schultz said Allen, 33, who had 70 receptions for 744 yards and seven touchdowns last season with the Bears, has “been waiting for training camps to open to better assess the landscape and get a clearer picture of each team’s wide receiver situation.” Allen ranked 16th among wideouts in targets, operating for much of the year as Chicago’s No. 1 receiver. Look for Allen to sign this summer with a wideout-needy team that would use him as an every-down player. Some teams in need to receiver help include the Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Jets.
Dolphins T Bayron Matos was taken to a hospital via helicopter on Wednesday.
Matos, 24, reportedly sustained a serious injury near the end of Wednesday’s training camp practice and was helicoptered to a nearby hospital for further evaluation. It’s a frightening situation. We’ll update Matos’ condition as the team offers updates on his condition.
Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer said George Pickens’ instincts are “uncanny.”
Schottenheimer also described Pickens’ ability to track and secure downfield attempts is “uncanny” and should change the Dallas offense in 2025. Dak Prescott has sung Pickens’ praises since he was traded to the Cowboys a couple months ago, calling Pickens more than just a deep ball specialist. Schottenheimer said last year’s Cowboys “didn’t have enough explosive plays” and the addition of Pickens — who in 2024 had the league’s second most receiving yards on downfield targets — should be the solution in 2025. Pickens is quietly an excellent fantasy pick in a Dallas offense that should have a condensed target distribution.
Bengals head coach Zac Taylor said QB Joe Burrow will play more in preseason games this summer.
It could be a way for the Bengals to prevent yet another miserable start to the regular season, though putting Burrow in harm’s way during meaningless August games presents some risk. Last year, Burrow completed five of seven preseason passes for 51 yards and a touchdown. It was the first preseason action he had seen since 2021, when he completed his lone preseason attempt. Hopefully Burrow can stay healthy and upright as the team ramps up his August playing time.