What’s better than the Super Bowl? How about a Super Bowl REMATCH? Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles will attempt to get revenge for their loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. And Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans is the venue.

The Kansas City Chiefs have narratives of their own. With a win this year they could become the first team to “three-peat” in the Super Bowl era. Mahomes is also chasing the records set by the great Tom Brady. Will look at those narratives, the stats, the schemes, and the lineups for our Eagles vs. Chiefs Super Bowl predictions!

Even if you just want to see the Eagles vs. Chiefs odds and have Eagles vs. Chiefs picks of your own, don’t forget to scroll down at the end to see how you can scoop up a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign-up bonus!

 

 

 

Eagles vs. Chiefs Predictions For Super Bowl Sunday

These quarterbacks have now met three times in their career. The Chiefs won their first matchup in 2021 42-30. Then they also won in the Super Bowl 38-35. The most recent matchup, during the 2023 regular season, was won by the Eagles however, 21-17.

The Chiefs only have two losses on the season. Though it’s really just one loss if you exclude the Week 18 game vs. the Denver Broncos when they rested their starters. The Eagles have won 15 of their last 16 games with their lone loss coming against the Washington Commanders, a team they just dispatched in the conference finals last week.

 

 

 

Philadelphia Eagles: Strength On The Ground

These Eagles weapons have all had their share of injuries over the years. And recently Jalen Hurts saw a bit of a scare with his knee. But Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley are all healthy heading into this week’s game. Barkley chose to forego chasing Eric Dickerson’s record to ensure he was ready for playoffs.

You would think that with those weapons they would be a fly high flying pass attack. But, with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, they’ve skewed heavily towards the run game. In fact, the Eagles have attempted the fewest passes of any team in the league on a per game basis at 25.9. Getting Saquon Barkley going early will be key. 

The Eagles defense has arguably been the best in the league. That’s how FTN Fantasy sees it at least as they are ranked #1 in DVOA over there. They are one of the best defenses in the league at disguising their coverages. And many of them are more a complex system of “if this than that” rules than pure man to man or zone schemes.

They’ve certainly gotten some big help from breakout seasons along the way. Zach Baun has proven one of the league’s best linebackers where he grades out as the top cover linebacker per Pro Football Focus. And rookie Cooper DeJean’s work in the slot has left no where to hide. 

 

 

 

Kansas City Chiefs: Taking The Easy Road 

When you build a balanced team, your quarterback doesn’t need to be the hero. Not that Patrick Mahomes isn’t capable of it - they haven’t needed it as much as they have in, say, his 50 touchdown pass year. The Chiefs actually only cracked 30 points all season because they didn’t have to in many cases. One of those games was last week against the Bills.

Kansas City specializes in using a lot of different bunch formations with motion and pick plays to confuse defenses. In 2023 they led all teams in wide receiver screens and this year they are among the top again, with Xavier Worthy getting 12 himself. 

On defense they have been solid, especially against the run. Steve Spagnolo has famously not allowed a 100 yard rusher in 2024. And he hasn’t allowed a 90 yard rusher in the playoffs since joining the team. The best game against his KC defense was Leonard Fournette is the Buccaneers win over the Chiefs with 89. Saquon Barkley will hope to put his name at the top of the list. 

In coverage the Chiefs do play more man coverage than the average NFL team. But only the Lions were playing close to 50% so we’re talking about man 30% of the time vs. an NFL average of 27%. The Eagles have been one of the better teams vs. man coverage so it will be interesting to see if the Chiefs use more zone or trust Trent McDuffie against a guy like A.J. Brown. 

 

 

 

Eagles vs. Chiefs Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

As promised, the latest Eagles vs. Chiefs odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

 

 

 

Eagles vs. Chiefs: Game Total Under 48.5 (-105 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

The more I break down this game, the more of a chess match I expect it to be. And the more I realize that this matchup could be the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object.

The Eagles throw less than any other team in the league and have relied heavily on Saquon Barkley. But now they go up against a Chiefs team that prioritizes stopping the run. Even if Saquon Barkley does have the best game a running back has had against a Steve Spagnolo defense, it’s hard to predict one of these games with 150+ rushing yards or 2-3 touchdowns we’ve come to expect.

On the flip side, the Chiefs make up for a lack of true star wide receivers by using complex bunches and routes. And they lean into the screen game with both wide receivers and tight ends whenever possible. 

But it just so happens that the Eagles happen to be one of the best teams in the league at dealing with this exact approach. They are a rare team that not only has two great outside corners in Darius Slay and Quinyon Mitchell but two star coverage guys over the middle in Cooper DeJean and Zach Baun.

The more I boil it all down, I think this could be a hard fought game that sees more slow tempo tactical play than it does fireworks. And that has me looking to take the under on this one at 48.5 points. 

 

 

 

Eagles vs. Chiefs Injury Report & Latest News

Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:

PHI Eagles

KC Chiefs

 

 

 

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