Commanders vs. Eagles Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFC Conference Championship
What could possibly make the NFL Conference Championship Round of the NFL playoffs better? How about two division rivals squaring off for a trip to the Super Bowl? The Washington Commanders will travel to face the Philadelphia Eagles this week in an NFC East showdown!
The Eagles are the “big brother” right now as the division winner who has been there before. But the Washington Commanders are a dangerous team led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Let’s dig into those narratives, the data, and the injuries to make our NFL Conference Championship round predictions for Commanders vs. Eagles.
You’re welcome to have other Commanders vs. Eagles picks as well and still claim the $150 DraftKings Sportsbook welcome offer that we’ve also shared below!
Commanders vs. Eagles Predictions For NFL Division Round Sunday
Naturally, as division rivals, these teams square off at least twice a year. This will be their third meeting - the Eagles won the first matchup in Philadelphia 26-18 but the Commanders won the second in Washington, 36-33. The Eagles have won six of the last eight but the tide could be turning as the Commanders ascend.
At one point the Commanders lost three straight to the Steelers, Eagles, and Cowboys. But they have since rattled off seven straight wins including a win over the Eagles and two playoffs wins on the road as underdogs. The Eagles have won 14 of their last 15 games with their lone loss coming vs. this Commanders team.
Washington Commanders: A New Era
The Commanders were smart about kicking off this new regime post-Dan Snyder. They got their rookie quarterback with the second pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. They didn’t go all in trying to win now but added some crafty veterans like Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler. This team, in big thanks to them, Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and Brian Robinson has gone from “overachiever” to legitimate Super Bowl contender.
On defense the Commanders haven’t been incredible. FTN Fantasy has them ranked as the 23rd defense in the NFL per their DVOA stat, easily the worst of the remaining teams. They did make a crucial call to trade for shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore mid-season which has drastically improved their pass defense.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts' Health
This team is loaded with weapons. Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert are all Pro Bowl-caliber players when healthy. The big story right now is Jalen Hurts’s knee, which did not look right towards the end of last week. He’s expected to play this week but will likely be out there in a brace, which could limit his mobility.
The Eagles defense has arguably been the best in the league. That’s how FTN Fantasy sees it at least as they are ranked #1 in DVOA over there. Linebacker Zach Baun was had himself a breakout season as one of the league’s top defenders over the middle. Pro Football Focus grades him as the top cover linebacker in the league this season.
Commanders vs. Eagles Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
You can see the previously mentioned double-digit point spread and each of the standard Commanders vs. Eagles odds at DraftKings Sportsbook below:
- Point Spread: Washington Commanders +6 (-108) vs. Philadelphia Eagles 6 (-112)
- Money Line: Washington Commanders(+230) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-285)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 47.5 (-110) vs. Under 47.5 (-110)
Commanders vs. Eagles: Saquon Barkley over 13.5 Rec Yards (-114 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I think the Philadelphia Eagles win this game. Though I’m not in love with the moneyline or the spread - I think that’s capped pretty well. Where we can get an advantage is betting a specific Saquon Barkley prop bet. And that’s the over on his receiving yards set at 13.5.
If you look at his recent games, you might think this is a bad play. But we have to remember the context of his late season. He was chasing a 2,000 yard season and Eric Dickerson’s rushing record. They were opting for carries rather than wasting touches on designed passes as those plays had no bearing on the record. It’s blatantly obvious for that stretch of games vs. CAR, PIT, WAS, and DAL. This is a guy who you would typically expect to get 3-4 targets minimum.
On top of that, Jalen Hurts is dealing with the knee issue. That could limit his mobility and lead to more dump downs or designed quick hitters. Last week Barkley caught 4 of 4 targets but he doesn’t really even need that - all it could take is one screen pass for him to his 13.5 receiving yards. If you are as confident as we are, sprinkling some of the alternative lines at 25 or even 50 receiving yards is a fun play as well!
Commanders vs. Eagles Injury Report & Latest News
Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:
WAS Commanders
- G Sam Cosmi - Out
- QB Jeff Driskel - Questionable
- DE Javontae Jean-Bapiste - Questionable
- DT Daron Payne - Questionable
PHI Eagles
- WR Brittain Covey - Out
- DT Byron Young - Out
- C Cam Jurgens - Questionable
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Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Beat reporter John Hendrix reports that free agent WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is among the 16 players that the Saints will host for their rookie minicamp.
Peoples-Jones last played regular season snaps with the Lions back in 2023, when he caught 13-of-24 targets for 155 yards. He is highly unlikely to return to fantasy relevance at this point but could perhaps sign on as a special teams contributor.
Titans signed fourth-round pick WR Elic Ayomanor to a four-year contract.
Ayomanor will now begin learning behind Calvin Ridley. Although Ayomanor is unlikely to find a meaningful role in year one, dynasty managers should note his status as training camp gets underway this summer. The former Stanford receiver flashed big-play ability in his two college seasons.
Buccaneers signed seventh-round pick WR Tez Johnson to a four-year contract.
Johnson will serve as a rotational deep-threat option for Baker Mayfield. His thin frame (5'10/154) simply does not lend itself to the repeated hits one incurs in a full-time role. Johnson did earn 100-plus targets in his two seasons at Oregon, though. His big-play style make him a better fit in best ball for now, pending any major on-field breakthroughs.
Giants waived DT Casey Rogers.
Rogers was a 2024 undrafted free agent and logged 33 defensive snaps for the Giants in his rookie season. He is credited with zero tackles and/or sacks. He may find his way onto another roster as a practice squad option.
Vikings signed third-round pick WR Tai Felton to a four-year contract.
Felton is quietly in play to challenge Vikings No. 3 WR Jalen Nailor in training camp. Nailor (5'11/190) caught 28-of-42 targets for 414 yards and six touchdowns in his first season as a starter last year, with the latter category buoying his fantasy productivity. Felton (6'1/183), meanwhile, caught 96-of-143 targets for 1,119 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 2.32 yards per route run in his final college season. Fantasy managers should monitor Felton’s training camp reports this summer, as he could have a matchup-based WR5 role if everything falls into place.