Browns vs. Raiders Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 4, Sunday 9/29
It hasn’t been easy being a fan of the Cleveland Browns or the Las Vegas Raiders. And it says a lot that maybe it would be easier to be a fan of the team that was packed up and moved to Las Vegas than it is to be a Cleveland Browns fan. But both fanbases are certainly resilient. And neither team is willing to go down without a fight.
For both teams, it stems back to the most important position in football - quarterback. The Browns took the cash-forward approach with Deshaun Watson and, so far it hasn’t worked in their favor. The Raiders went the discount road with Gardner Minshew, hoping he’s the next Baker Mayfield or Geno Smith. As is often the case, quarterback play will factor heavily into our Browns vs. Raiders predictions for Week 4.
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Browns vs. Raiders Predictions For Sunday 4:25 PM ET, NFL Week 4
These teams have not faced off since 2021. And a lot has changed since then, including the two starting quarterbacks. So history won’t help us much here. We’ll have to dive into the personnel, the schemes, and, as always the health of these two teams. In fact, who is healthy or not could be huge in this one.
Cleveland Browns: Could The Browns Bench Deshaun Watson?
Statistically speaking, the only starting quarterback that has been worse than Deshaun Watson this year has been Bryce Young. And he’s already been benched. Whether it’s Pro Football Focus grades, quarterback rating, passer rating, you name it - Watson is among the bottom in the league. FTN ranks the Browns’ passing attack as dead last in DVOA. There are questions about whether the team should throw backup Jameis Winston in there to see if he fares any better, like Joe Flacco did last year.
Naturally, the group of cast-offs from other organizations in Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore that they have assembled have not been performing well either. David Njoku is likely still out and Nick Chubb is on IR for at least another week. Jerome Ford missed practice with a knee issue but they are hoping he will go. Guard Wyatt Teller just landed on the IR, Jack Conklin is not expected back yet, and Joel Bitonio was limited with a knee issue.
On defense the biggest piece in question would be Myles Garrett who is struggling with multiple lower body ailments to his feet, Achilles, and thigh. If the reigning defensive player of the year can’t go, the Browns are in huge trouble.
Las Vegas Raiders: Trouble Running The Football
The big issue for the Las Vegas Raiders this year has been running the football. Saying they are last in rushing yards per game doesn’t do it justice - their 51 rushing yards per game is 20 yards fewer than the next closest team.
The key to the Raiders is simple - Gardner Minshew needs to deliver the ball efficiently to his stars. It’s not secret that Davante Adams was a huge reason why the pulled off the upset against the Ravens. And I’m hoping the Raiders have realized that Brock Bowers should be a fulltime player at this point, rather than rotating and playing 70% of the snaps as he has been. He’s already one of the best slot wide receivers in the league - especially when it comes to blocking compared to some of the other slot guys.
On the defensive side is whether Raiders are dealing with the most injuries, including Maxx Crosby who is dealing with an ankle injury. Without any semblance of a running game, the Raiders are not giving this defense time to rest so it’s no surprise they are bottom five in DVOA against both the pass and run. A healthy Crosby along with Christian Wilkins and Tyree Wilson was supposed to generate the pass rush they need to keep the pressure off but the Raiders only have five sacks on the season so far.
Browns vs. Raiders Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
As promised, the latest Browns vs. Raiders odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: Cleveland Browns +2 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Raiders -2 (-110)
- Money Line: Cleveland Browns (-110) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-130)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 37 (-110) vs. Under 37 (-110)
Browns vs. Raiders: Game Total Under 37 (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
The number is set fairly low for this game - and for good reason. Not only have these offenses been pretty rough and the quarterback play has been bad but both teams are riddled with injuries. That’s the recipe for a sloppy, low-scoring football game.
As we mentioned, Deshaun Watson might be closer to getting benched than he is mounting a comeback. And he’s down two of his best lineman in Jack Conklin and Wyatt Teller. The Raiders not only don’t have a running game to sustain long drives but they also don’t really have much of a homerun hitter either. We like Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Brock Bowers but that group is more likely to be “death by a thousand cuts” than it is to break off the big chunk plays we need to get high scoring games.
I see this one being riddled with the kind of mistakes that you see from backups and bad quarterback play. It’s the under for us here.
Browns vs. Raiders Injury Report & Latest News
Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:
CLE Browns
- OT Malaesala Aumavae-Laula - DNP
- S Kyle Hamilton - Limited
- WR Deonte Harty - Limited
- CB Nate Wiggins - Limited
- LB David Ojabo - Limited
LV Raiders
- WR Davante Adams - Out
- EDGE Maxx Crosby - Out
- TE Michael Mayer - Out
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Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Beat reporter John Hendrix reports that free agent WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is among the 16 players that the Saints will host for their rookie minicamp.
Peoples-Jones last played regular season snaps with the Lions back in 2023, when he caught 13-of-24 targets for 155 yards. He is highly unlikely to return to fantasy relevance at this point but could perhaps sign on as a special teams contributor.
Titans signed fourth-round pick WR Elic Ayomanor to a four-year contract.
Ayomanor will now begin learning behind Calvin Ridley. Although Ayomanor is unlikely to find a meaningful role in year one, dynasty managers should note his status as training camp gets underway this summer. The former Stanford receiver flashed big-play ability in his two college seasons.
Buccaneers signed seventh-round pick WR Tez Johnson to a four-year contract.
Johnson will serve as a rotational deep-threat option for Baker Mayfield. His thin frame (5'10/154) simply does not lend itself to the repeated hits one incurs in a full-time role. Johnson did earn 100-plus targets in his two seasons at Oregon, though. His big-play style make him a better fit in best ball for now, pending any major on-field breakthroughs.
Giants waived DT Casey Rogers.
Rogers was a 2024 undrafted free agent and logged 33 defensive snaps for the Giants in his rookie season. He is credited with zero tackles and/or sacks. He may find his way onto another roster as a practice squad option.
Vikings signed third-round pick WR Tai Felton to a four-year contract.
Felton is quietly in play to challenge Vikings No. 3 WR Jalen Nailor in training camp. Nailor (5'11/190) caught 28-of-42 targets for 414 yards and six touchdowns in his first season as a starter last year, with the latter category buoying his fantasy productivity. Felton (6'1/183), meanwhile, caught 96-of-143 targets for 1,119 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 2.32 yards per route run in his final college season. Fantasy managers should monitor Felton’s training camp reports this summer, as he could have a matchup-based WR5 role if everything falls into place.